Food for thought indeed....
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Food for thought indeed....
Do you know anything about electric distribution? If not, all you can do is read. Know anything about arrestors? How a transformer is made? Grounding systems? If you do, let’s talk about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Straight Shooter
One second after? Read it.
So, Im asking..do you totally discount the author's opinions & facts? How much, if any credence, do you give to EMP, natural or man-made, as a threat?Yes, all I can do on the subject of EMP is read info by people established, educated & respected in their field.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jsp10477
Again, not being argumentative..Id like your opinion on both the book & the authors facts. Also- we've got another thread down below this one:
"Dec 2018 update: Authoritative EMP engineering info".
This thread has MANY links to other reports as recent as 9OCT18 & 10DEC18..this one entitled: "Electric Grid prime target for terrorists".
Are ALL these USG reports wrong? Are ALL the military brass & civilian experts Ive read & heard wrong?
Id seriously like you take on this, thank you.
I’ll preface this post with the fact that I am not a college educated electrical engineer. I base my opinion on experience from years as an electrical contractor for one of the largest energy companies in the southeast. I’ve worked overhead and underground primary distribution, overhead and underground secondary services, metering, etc. My opinions are mine and I do not in any way speak for the company that employs me or any of the companies we have contracts with.
EMP’s fry delicate circuitry since it cannot bleed off surges. Consumer products, phones, lap tops, radios, TV sets, home medical devices and appliances will be what is most affected. Like I stated earlier, as long as copper and aluminum conduct electricity, distribution and transmission conductors wouldn’t need replaced.
https://www.bluestemelectric.com/sit...20a%20Pole.jpg
Note that there are arrestors to bleed off surges. Everything is tied back to main line neutrals and earth grounds.
Here’s a quick look at substation arrestors.
https://youtu.be/DW3pEv--5w8
These types of protections are integrated all throughout our grid.
Transformers are sealed metal housings that are directly tied to earth grounds and system neutrals. The windings inside are insulated from the housing/tank and submerged in non conductive oil. This is the case for overhead, underground, network, and substation transformers.
Direct physical attacks can shut down an entire substation or transmission circuit. The thing is, power companies guard their stations when terror alerts are elevated. If one actually went down due to an attack, you can bet the rest will have an armed presence. Transmission right of ways are maintained and could be patrolled. Corporate security isn’t just for escorting terminated employees off the premises. Why is the DOE an armed gov agency? It isn’t just for competing in sniper comps. Back on track, so when a station or circuit is damaged, it’s repaired and switched back into service.
Natural disasters could pose a greater threat than EMP due to actually destroying lines and equipment. Even so, natural disasters are small relative to the size of the country. I don’t see a nation wide wildfire, hurricane, earthquake, tornado, or ice storm. The Yellowstone caldera would be a different beast though.
So let’s see, hackers have broken into financial institutes, intel agencies, political parties, etc but no one has shut down a generation plant? Wonder why?
Are the “experts” more credible than I? Yes. As stated above, I have no credentials. Is there money to be made buy selling stories of calamities that drum up fear in people? Yes. Would our government fund research that shows our grid is in danger then use said research as a reason to establish regulating authority over the nations electric grid? Lol, we all know the answer.
If the gov wants to help in an emergency, do what they’re doing now, provide funds, waive hours of service laws, and let the power companies handle their systems.
I’ll read the other thread as time allows. Lots of family gatherings going on for the Christmas holiday.
AWESOME response & much appreciated. i WANT you to be the right one on this, no doubt.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jsp10477
Merry Christmas to you & yours!
Good post. It is hard to take anyone seriously that quotes One Second After or Die Hard as their design basis threat.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jsp10477
Somebody just detonated a nuclear device against the US... and you’re trying to remember if your rusty POS in the driveway is pre electronic fuel injection. If your car electronics are fried, then you are much more likely to die in the blast, fireball or resulting radiation poisoning. The bad guys are just going to nuke D.C., Manhattan or maybe the LA basin, as the U.S. is going to retaliate in a weapons free manner (have you read Raven Rock? That is real, not a work of fiction).
Like everything else, follow the money (as noted). I do not begrudge anyone writing a successful novel nor trying to sell their snake oil EMP solutions, but a dose of sense is needed. The U.S. electrical grid survives millions of electrical strikes from lightning every year, which is exactly the protection scheme that caused the minor power outage in the STARFISH PRIME detonation (read the Sandia weapons lab report)... EMP physics are basically lighting (I.e., lots of electrons) and in many ways less potent.
The grid also handles polar radiation/ space weather events on a regular basis (do you subscribe to the Weather Service’s space weather alerts?). The threat is well documented, the mitigation is well documented but what we haven’t had is an actual event to validate. I hope we never do.
A little info on the One Second After book..the author is a leading expert in the EMP, well established, well respected. I have personally heard him say, that OSA is "fiction that hasnt come true yet". He researched United State Government records and the Gov's own research papers hired out to places like the Rand Corp. {or is is Rand Inst?} and other think tanks as to what would happen during a man made EMP attack, as to how many would die in the first 6 months, then later. Even in "layers" so to speak..like 1st would be people on life support..nursing home residents, then your addicts..the weak, city residents who atarve or were murdered, ect, ect. Then he took his knowledge of what happens to actual equipment in an EMP, and wrote a book, using his own home town of Black MTN, NC, as a backdrop.Quote:
Originally Posted by HardToHandle
Almost all the events in the book come from actual stats, figures, and calculations from many, many sources. It is NOT "just another" sci-fi book.
A lot of people dont know this about that book, which is why it is all the more terrifying.
As for the Die Hard quip..I myself never mentioned a thing about it, maybe someone else did. THAT, Id put no stock in either.
But, hey..believe/think what you want if it makes you sleep better. Myself, to deny that man made EMP isnt a real threat..when just in the past month alone Ive seen at least 6 new articles talking about the gov. itself worrying bout it, is suicidal. Some people wont believe anything, unless/until it actually happens to them, personally. Nothing off me...but point of my posts is to provide info to people that do wish to research the topic & find out info for themselves.
Merry Christmas!
Oh my God! This thread instantly went down that rabbit hole.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabre675
Six months for a grid down situation is ridiculous:
For a cyber failure, the grid would be back up inside 48 hrs (although it might be down again in another 24; lather, rinse and repeat).
For a mechanical failure, a grid down situation will actually be local, although a brief cascade failure could give us a few hours of widespread blackout. How long it takes to repair a mechanical failure depends on the extent and the cause, but we are talking about days or weeks, not months.
For a true EMP, again the failure will be local -- the ONLY portable source of an EMP is a nuclear device. The truck mounted "EMP Generators" that are so popular in movies are strictly an invention of Hollywood. If someone sets off a nuclear bomb, the EMP will be the least of the concerns in the area.
The one potential cause of a massive long-term grid-down condition would be an enormous Coronal Mass Ejection (a giant "Solar Flare"). The last time a massive CME intersected the earth was in 1859 (the Carrington Event). When it happens again (yes, I said "when" not "if") depending on the level of the CME encountering the earth we could be looking at a worldwide grid down condition that would be essentially non-repairable. T-E-O-T-W-A-W-K-I !
If I lost power for 6 months I would pray it was winter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Inkslinger
The country NEEDS something like this to happen.
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