Okay, so determining your ammo requirements for a BOB or any kind of “get me home” situation. Frankly, I see a lot of “I have 11 AR mags with another 100 loose rounds, 8 Glock mags with 2 happy sticks and another box of fifty rounds and a box of 100 rounds for my .22 pistol” when people describe their setup. And I would be willing to bet pennies to dollars most if not all have never walked any considerable distance with that amount of ammo. I mean, we are talking a baseline of at least fifteen pounds if not more of ammo stores alone and that’s just in a 5.56 weapon. You start talking more when you get into the 7.62 range. And this is dry weight (dry weight being weight that isn’t normally consumed like food or water) that you cannot…should not be dropping. However, with selective ammo counts to begin with, you won’t need to drop half your ammo because you got tired.
So let’s look at weapons to begin with:
Rifles/Carbines – Your primary fighting arm. Nothing in the world a pistol can do that a rifle cannot do better when shooting at someone. I mean, if pistols were so great, why isn’t the military issuing them out as the only weapon?
Pistols: A secondary and last defense weapon. Can it be a primary offensive weapon? Sure, but again, a rifle is far better suited to the task than a pistol.
Okay, more ammo is good in a firefight, but at the same time, if you are bugging out to your home or BOL, the intent is not to get into a firefight. A firefight does several things and in no particular order:
A: Alerts your position to the bad guys who probably have more friends that can and will come along to make matters worse
B: Slows you down considerably
C: Provides a better chance of you getting injured and/or killed
D: If you get into a run and run battle, provides the opportunity to lose gear, become disoriented and lost or run into even worse trouble
All things frankly that can and will lead you to death if you aren’t careful.
So overall, one should be working on selective shots to wound or kill. Even a wounded enemy will take a step back and pause for thought. And if you get the attacker to stop doing what led you to start shooting in the first place? You’ve already won the battle. Most if not all thugs and street toughs will back off when wounded. They are not professional soldiers or law enforcement sucking it up to get the job done and working through minor wounds. They are typically cowards who will stop at the first sign of pain and adversity and wait for a better opportunity on an unarmed group or individual.
So determining an ammo requirement... Unless you are looking at a long protracted firefight during offensive operations and/or defensive operations where you are looking at the Chinese horde breaking down your door most situations rarely take more than a mag or two. Most police shootings last less than a mag, maybe two at the most. And that’s typically pistol mags of fifteen to twenty rounds. So less than fifty rounds from start to finish. Now I’m sure someone will point to the North Hollywood shootings out in LA some years ago, but entirely different scope of circumstances. Police were not prepared for an all out assault by two bank robbers wearing body armor and soaking up the pistol rounds they were being shot at with. Point is, most “firefights” that are not military in nature or random events like North Hollywood are not long protracted affairs. They tend to be short lived. And even using the North Hollywood firefight as an example, you could see the police were underequipped to deal with the situation as it stood.
So the major difference is, you have the opportunity to prepare in advance for possible scenarios and have better weaponry than they had going in. And the LAPD even started issuing out rifles to patrols after that incident. So lesson learned and all that jazz. But that’s getting off track.
Here’s the factors one has to look at when determining an ammo requirement:
A: How far am I going?
B: How much does my basic ammo load weigh? (5.56 vs. 7.62x39 vs 7.62x51 vs 5.45x39, etc)
C: What is the likelihood of getting into an armed confrontation during my bug out?
D: Does my bug out plan purposely avoid known hostile areas?
E: Do I have the ability to move quickly and quietly and avoid detection if I encounter hostile forces?
F: Most importantly, can I hit what I’m shooting at when forced to?
Just a few questions one should be asking themselves before even thinking about the first round going into a magazine to eventually end up on a bug out listing.
Far too many people end up having these wild Walter Mitty fantasies of being the lone super soldier going up against the lawless hordes. And frankly, these types are either going to end up being cowards who shy away at the first sign of adversity or will end up dead because they picked a fight they could not win. Don’t like my comments because it’s hitting too close to home? Hit the back button on your browser. For those willing to learn and possibly reassess your fighting load, continue reading.
So a baseline ammo requirement. In those questions above, one needs to answer those honestly before even thinking about both weapons and ammo requirements. As well as the terrain one goes through. You would not march right down the middle of the road in Charlotte with your uber awesome chest rig carrying your Arsenal AK with ten magazines and your tricked out Glock with another eight magazines. You tend to get shot at, stopped by police and scare the living daylights out of all concerned. In short, you make yourself a target. But maybe if one has to traverse a known hostile area and there is no getting around it? Which brings me to stealth which I’ll cover later.
As a minimum, one should be looking at a minimum of five rifle magazines to start with. That’s four stored and one in the weapon. 150 rounds total (for 30 rounders) and/or 100 rounds (for FALs, M1As, G3s, etc). And three pistol magazines; one in the pistol and two spares. This is a baseline and just what one should be looking at. Is it all inclusive and set in stone? No, every bug out is different. Can/will the ammo requirements change on environment and mission? Sure, but again, baseline is what we are looking at. I can already hear the protests…
“But Soldiers and Marines carry as much ammo as they possibly can! Sometimes fifteen to twenty magazines!” some will exclaim. They sure do and tend to go out looking for trouble which you should not during a bug out. But let’s take a look at the basic load…150 rounds as our basis.
If you cannot end a firefight in 150 rounds or less, you have either picked a fight you cannot win with a numerically superior foe or your shooting skills suck. I’m not going to sugar coat that any more than I already have. If you blast away five mags worth of ammo in a simple fight against anything less than fifteen people, you are wasting ammo, period.
But I’ll give some the benefit of the doubt. Let’s say you only have a 50 percent hit ratio as it is. Even at 50 percent, you should be taking down 75 attackers. No?
Okay, let’s say a third hit ratio (which you should look at hitting the range and doing firing drills if you are only hitting a third of the time. Practice, practice, practice) which means you should have taken down 50 attackers. Now I’ll take into account moving targets and general misses, so we’ll go to:
20 percent for those not satisfied with a thirty percent hit ratio. Okay, so 20 percent of 150 is still 30 targets struck. Which still make up for your numerical inferiority, but if you get into a fight with 30 armed individuals? You are on the wrong side of the equation to begin with. But even then, anything less than 20 percent hit ratio of rounds fired and your behind needs to get to a range and stop playing couch commando by packing away enough rounds to invade Central America.
And pistol rounds? Simple. A pistol is a weapon intended to get you back to the rifle you shouldn’t have set down in the first place. During a bug out, it is a simple secondary defensive firearm to get you back into the fight. Again, if you blow off fifteen plus rounds “trying to keep their heads down” you are simply wasting ammo and making yourself a target. So no more than three magazines for your pistol. Maybe even four depending on the type (think 1911 types). Even with three magazines of 15 rounds apiece, you have 45 rounds of defensive ammo, sometimes more with extended magazines like the Glock or Mec-Gar mags. My Sig magazines hold 18 rounds. So 56 rounds of ammo to start and complete a fight at close range. And frankly less most of the time since you are using your secondary weapon as a secondary means of defense until you can get your primary arm back on line.
Point is, you do NOT need three hundred rounds of rifle ammo and a hundred rounds of pistol ammo during a bug out. Why you might ask? Because again, you should not, I repeat not be going around looking for a fight. Stealth is the key during a bug out. Getting from point A to B. Getting from known potentially hostile areas to a secured area where you can carry 300 rounds until your heart is content. Why then? Because at a bug out location you are not carrying 25 plus pounds in a pack as well as 15 or more pounds of ammo on top of it. So sneaky and stealthy are the keys to bugging out. One must attempt to AVOID hostile contact even though the brain tells them to do the general public a favor by taking out the armed hostile groups that may be a problem later on. But again, if you are bugging out, it means you are either solo or maybe even in a small group (less than four). You should not be looking for the armed confrontation and attempting to sneak past known hostile areas.
But when faced with armed confrontation, you should be looking at the minimum amount of shots necessary to stop the attack and continue on mission. This does not mean you blow off ammo unnecessarily and does mean you wait for the shot with the highest chance of a hit. So what if the M4 (and AR clones) is rated at 500 meters for a point target. Chances are, you’ve never shot that distance anyway and without a scoped rifle have few chances of hitting multiple targets anyway without blind luck or serious wasting of rounds. And even if you do shoot off a few rounds to “scare them off” you are doing little more than showing an enemy your position. Now are there some that can make hits at that distance? Absolutely. But for general Joe Six Pack that shoots a hundred rounds maybe every three months or so, probably not. So stealth is the key during a bug out.
Stealth means you have the ability to avoid a firefight when potentially faced with one. Your goal (and you will see the repeating message here) is to avoid contact by getting from point A to B. Your goal should be looking forward to getting to that bug out location where ammo isn’t a consideration of weight and you can feel free to blast off as many rounds as it takes. Your goal should be to arrive safely at your bug out location. So what do we take from all this ranting and raving?
Realistically determine your ammo requirements and needs. What is the chance of getting into an armed confrontation? Do I shoot well enough to stop the threat if faced with using force? Is weight a factor in bugging out? Realistically look at your ammo requirements and how much you carry. Can you get by with less? Maybe so. Are my ammo stores enough to sustain me through a fight or even multiple fights? Should I be carrying slightly more ammo, like seven magazines or can I get by with five? Do I seem to attract trouble and tend to get forced into an armed confrontation? If the answer is yes, then…
Learn your tactics. Become one with the environment and be stealthy. Do not go around looking for a fight even though you know it might end in a victory for you. Learn to use your camouflage and concealment in all areas you will be bugging out to (urban, suburban and rural). Learn to use effective cover and concealment during a firefight and use the least amount of rounds necessary to get the job done. Which brings me to my last point…
Learn to shoot effectively and efficiently at the maximum effective range of your weapon. Effectively means you are making hits instead of misses. Efficiently means you are using the least amount of rounds to get the job done. Also, shoot and scoot. Don’t become a stationary target waiting for them to come to you. Fire a few rounds, back off. Fire a few more, back off. Make enough hits and I can guarantee you the enemy will either be dead or will back off since they picked a fight with someone who can shoot far more effectively than they can. Or they waste ammo shooting it at you where your cover and concealment come into play. And eventually run out of ammo themselves and go home.
Overall, far too many people talk about carrying massive amount of ammo during a bug out. And simply put, they are foolish because they either haven’t humped that distance with the weight before or have the aforementioned fantasies of being a Special SEAL Recon Combat Control Air Service Force member taking on the massed hordes of bad guys coming to get them. Again, if this hits close to home, sorry, but there it is.
One should realistically look at their ammo stores and figure out whether or not they are carrying too much or not enough. One should be carrying the weight for the distance involved and see how well it carries. One should look at their shooting skills and strive to improve them. One should be learning to improve their tactics in shooting and moving, cover and concealment.
Overall, some folks need to take a look at how much ammo they are carrying and decide when enough is too much.
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Originally Posted by North
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