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Thread: Pipeline is opening up

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krusty783 View Post
    Yes, but the ammo market is different than the rifle market because you can't [usually] back-order a rifle. There is a massive back-order of ammo that must get pushed out before things will get back to anything similar to Oct/Nov type ammunition supplies, IMO.

    There is still a very active ammo deal thread on TOS, and anything that gets posted there is invariably OOS within 30 minutes. .223, .308, 9mm, .40 S&W, .22LR, Anything gets snatched up very quickly.

    Gunbroker auctions are getting stood up, but gunbot and the other sites still show outrageously priced ammo. If buyers show restraint the average prices will come down, but I don't think we'll see any significant market corrections until the early summer (May-June).
    I think that lots of people will take that back-ordered ammo and sell it for what they can get. The floor is about to drop out on the auction sites. I hope.
    Last edited by Smitty79; 04-01-13 at 14:44.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Beachboy View Post
    This week, between 3 stores, I've seen or been already to - M4 Colt 6920 in black or FDE aT $1147.00, 3 SW MP15 at $1049 and one Bushy carbon at $797

    I think that the pipeline is beginning to open up
    That depends on which "pipeline" you are referring to...
    ...Yep for guns, a bit...but all dried up for ammo now?
    What good are the guns with no ammo to shoot.


    On that point, I have a question...
    I have been TOLD, by a number of sources that have never in the past steered me wrong...that this whole ammo shortage thing is phony, bogus, "manufactured" by the "middlemen"...those "distributers" , in between the manufacturer & the retailer...in order to drive up prices, they "hoard"...then release in small amounts...fake supply & demand.
    Sounds about correct, I mean, the oil / gasoline industry has been doing that for decades!
    What say you?

    Why don't the BIG manufacturers like Hornady, Remington Winchester & Federal, as well as the big "retailers" just tell these guys to "knock it off"...?
    These ammo companies are cranking out the ammo faster than ever...but NONE to be had in stores or online?
    REALLY, come on now ?

  3. #83
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    Pipeline is opening up

    Quote Originally Posted by DDM4LV1 View Post
    I have been TOLD, by a number of sources that have never in the past steered me wrong...that this whole ammo shortage thing is phony, bogus, "manufactured" by the "middlemen"...those "distributers" , in between the manufacturer & the retailer...in order to drive up prices, they "hoard"...then release in small amounts...fake supply & demand.
    Sounds about correct, I mean, the oil / gasoline industry has been doing that for decades!
    What say you?

    Why don't the BIG manufacturers like Hornady, Remington Winchester & Federal, as well as the big "retailers" just tell these guys to "knock it off"...?
    These ammo companies are cranking out the ammo faster than ever...but NONE to be had in stores or online?
    REALLY, come on now ?
    IMO, That seems highly unlikely.

    Besides the problem of getting everyone to cooperate, the point of reducing supply would be to SELL at a higher price. IMO, sales are too backlogged for that. No point in producing and NOT selling because the whole point would be to cash in on increased prices. And if you are sitting on a surplus and the panic goes away, your prices and demand go down (lose-lose).

    Then there is the issue of risk. Sitting on product with the potential of upcoming bans/restrictions doesn't make much sense.

    I think the more likely thing is it is exactly what it looks like. Panic buying that mfgs couldn't keep up with.

    -john
    Last edited by bzdog; 04-01-13 at 16:58.

  4. #84
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    Re: Pipeline is opening up

    Quote Originally Posted by DDM4LV1 View Post
    That depends on which "pipeline" you are referring to...
    ...Yep for guns, a bit...but all dried up for ammo now?
    What good are the guns with no ammo to shoot.


    On that point, I have a question...
    I have been TOLD, by a number of sources that have never in the past steered me wrong...that this whole ammo shortage thing is phony, bogus, "manufactured" by the "middlemen"...those "distributers" , in between the manufacturer & the retailer...in order to drive up prices, they "hoard"...then release in small amounts...fake supply & demand.
    Sounds about correct, I mean, the oil / gasoline industry has been doing that for decades!
    What say you?

    Why don't the BIG manufacturers like Hornady, Remington Winchester & Federal, as well as the big "retailers" just tell these guys to "knock it off"...?
    These ammo companies are cranking out the ammo faster than ever...but NONE to be had in stores or online?
    REALLY, come on now ?
    I don't know about that. I just ordered Herters180gr .308 from Cabelas for $17.99 per 20. More than 3 months ago, but not outrageously so.

    Rootbrain

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    Quote Originally Posted by bzdog View Post
    IMO, That seems highly unlikely.

    Besides the problem of getting everyone to cooperate, the point of reducing supply would be to SELL at a higher price. IMO, sales are too backlogged for that. No point in producing and NOT selling because the whole point would be to cash in on increased prices. And if you are sitting on a surplus and the panic goes away, your prices and demand go down (lose-lose).

    Then there is the issue of risk. Sitting on product with the potential of upcoming bans/restrictions doesn't make much sense.

    I think the more likely thing is it is exactly what it looks like. Panic buying that mfgs couldn't keep up with.

    -john
    perhaps...I dunno, what I was told by a large outlet here in Vegas...
    ...what I du know is that 22LR is 2x the price pre-panic Barack-Osama speech...if you can find it, 9mm, .223 & .308 have been exhausted here and "Gone in 60 Seconds" if it shows... and where did ALL the decent priced 6.8 SPC & .300 ACC Blackout / Whisper go?
    Plentiful before, what Hornady & Remington not putting out, I doubt it
    ?

  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by DDM4LV1 View Post
    I have been TOLD, by a number of sources that have never in the past steered me wrong...that this whole ammo shortage thing is phony, bogus, "manufactured" by the "middlemen"...those "distributers" , in between the manufacturer & the retailer...in order to drive up prices, they "hoard"...then release in small amounts...fake supply & demand.
    I don't believe that for a second. The price is heading back DOWN on ammo, and if that theory were right the market should be flooding with ammo attempting to chase the higher potential returns before the price drops further. To get all of the distributors to go along on such a grand scheme of price fixing (and a criminal conspiracy at that) seems to be to grand to be plausible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by _Stormin_ View Post
    I don't believe that for a second. The price is heading back DOWN on ammo, and if that theory were right the market should be flooding with ammo attempting to chase the higher potential returns before the price drops further. To get all of the distributors to go along on such a grand scheme of price fixing (and a criminal conspiracy at that) seems to be to grand to be plausible.
    Not "price fixing" as explained to me...but just sitting on inventory, hoarding it then releasing it slowly and creating an artificial or at least exaggerated "demand", when it really could be or have been much less so, and thus driving up prices because folks are just glad to get ammo at almost ANY $$$.
    That is what seemed to be happening in my area, and we have tons of gun stores, large outlets and ranges.

    I really don't know, but it was what the guys at my local Big Box sportsman-bass-like store said???
    Last edited by DDM4LV1; 04-01-13 at 19:15.

  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by DDM4LV1 View Post
    That depends on which "pipeline" you are referring to...
    ...Yep for guns, a bit...but all dried up for ammo now?
    What good are the guns with no ammo to shoot.


    On that point, I have a question...
    I have been TOLD, by a number of sources that have never in the past steered me wrong...that this whole ammo shortage thing is phony, bogus, "manufactured" by the "middlemen"...those "distributers" , in between the manufacturer & the retailer...in order to drive up prices, they "hoard"...then release in small amounts...fake supply & demand.
    Sounds about correct, I mean, the oil / gasoline industry has been doing that for decades!
    What say you?

    Why don't the BIG manufacturers like Hornady, Remington Winchester & Federal, as well as the big "retailers" just tell these guys to "knock it off"...?
    These ammo companies are cranking out the ammo faster than ever...but NONE to be had in stores or online?
    REALLY, come on now ?

    Not sure about your theory. Everybody in the supply chain is driven by profit, from mfg to retailer, with the distributors and jobbers in between.
    For major distributors to hold back inventory would be too high risk with the already effected state bans beginning, along with other possible bans in the future. Plus the logistics of simply storing, inventorying, removing and replacing in the supply stream, would be costly, reducing overall profit margin. Today's prevelant business model is to hold inventory for the very least amount of time (I can't remember the name for that business model, but I'm sure one of our MBA's will provide it shortly), handle it (inventory and shipping) the least amount possible and move it before it becomes a taxable asset.

    At one of the stores I mentioned, I saw Federal M855 in the 420 ammo cans later the same week. Didn't last, between me and local LEO's, but at least they had a few. Same with .22 ammo, bought 500 rds of Stingers and 480 rds of Federal Target same place as 5.56, same purchase.
    Send lawyers, guns and money the $#!+ has hit the fan...

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beachboy View Post
    Not sure about your theory. Everybody in the supply chain is driven by profit, from mfg to retailer, with the distributors and jobbers in between.
    For major distributors to hold back inventory would be too high risk with the already effected state bans beginning, along with other possible bans in the future. Plus the logistics of simply storing, inventorying, removing and replacing in the supply stream, would be costly, reducing overall profit margin. Today's prevelant business model is to hold inventory for the very least amount of time (I can't remember the name for that business model, but I'm sure one of our MBA's will provide it shortly), handle it (inventory and shipping) the least amount possible and move it before it becomes a taxable asset.

    At one of the stores I mentioned, I saw Federal M855 in the 420 ammo cans later the same week. Didn't last, between me and local LEO's, but at least they had a few. Same with .22 ammo, bought 500 rds of Stingers and 480 rds of Federal Target same place as 5.56, same purchase.
    NOT "my theory"...theirs, just took 'em at their word, 'cause they have to deal with these guys all the time.
    Midway used to be my go-to online, but they just can't seem to get anything (the good stuff) anymore...and NOT cheaper-but-just-dirt-bags...has taken advantage of this to the hilt...never again with them, they should be run out of Texas...better places there, like AmmoToGo
    Last edited by DDM4LV1; 04-01-13 at 19:24.

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by DDM4LV1 View Post
    and NOT cheaper-but-just-dirt-bags...has taken advantage of this to the hilt...never again with them, they should be run out of Texas...better places there, like AmmoToGo
    Sorry, didn't mean to tag you with the theory.

    I agree, CTD has seen my last $$$, they were a place I'd order select stuff from 4 or 5 times a year, no more. I don't know of a major retailer who was more opportunistic and less customer relations friendly during the Great Shooting Sports Scare of 2012 than CTD.
    Send lawyers, guns and money the $#!+ has hit the fan...

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