Could TEXAS be turning blue?

[decodeddiesel]

10 years ago I thought Colorado was one of the last great conservative strong-holds.

5 years ago was the first big clue that shit had gone awry with the results of the 2008 elections.

Now we're hosed, and it's going to take a lot of time and effort to get back to anything resembling the way we were.

If it can happen here it can happen anywhere. The cities go first, then it spreads.

[tb-av]

HA! This is one of the funniest things I've ever heard. If you ever think for a second "yes" you need to travel more.

Texas will turn blue the day Ronald Reagan comes back from the dead.

The very worst thing you can do as a Texan is underestimate your enemy. I think Texas will actually turn blue before Florida. Virginia has gone blue, but I think Texas will be easier to convert than Florida. It's pretty much a no-brainer. They don't need your guns to turn it blue and you're not going to stand there and shoot them as they are bussed into the voting stations.

Liberals/Progressives are relentless political warriors.

[tb-av]

The cities go first, then it spreads.

Actually it doesn't even need to spread. They know how to control by concentration. Like a bank. Banks are not on every corner but they control the money. The Liberals/Progressives have built voter banks on key pieces of real estate and they are open for business.

[AKDoug]

They only have to control the cities. In most states representatives are based on population and it doesn't take much for urban liberals to overcome rural conservatives. That's why the protection of the electoral college is so important on the national level.

[justin_247]

HA! This is one of the funniest things I've ever heard. If you ever think for a second "yes" you need to travel more.

Texas will turn blue the day Ronald Reagan comes back from the dead.

Never heard of California, have you? In case you've forgotten, that was once the Republican Party's greatest stronghold.

[Frailer]

HA! This is one of the funniest things I've ever heard. If you ever think for a second "yes" you need to travel more.

Texas will turn blue the day Ronald Reagan comes back from the dead.

Depending on which criteria you use, between 80 and 86 percent of Texas residents are "urban."

[SeriousStudent]

Joe Straus sure as hell isn't doing us any favors down here, as Speaker of the House.

Greg Abbott is running for Governor, now that Perry is planning a run in the 2016 Presidential sweepstakes. Abbott will win the Gov job, and will put up a fight like you will not believe over the turning blue issue. Remember who crafted the photo ID voter law here in Texas, and that withstood a SCOTUS challenge.

Abbott was the Chief Justice of the Texas Supreme Court, and has successfully argued cases before SCOTUS. Don't forget how that factors into his actions, and how it mightily pisses off Holder. Holder hates Abbott the way I hate root canals, watered-down Scotch, and slow drivers in the left lane.

Perry won't get the 2016 GOP nomination, but he'll try and help broker a Paul/Perry ticket or Cruz/Perry ticket. He can and will pick up enough delegates to be a force at the convention, and he'll likely trade that for a cabinet slot, then bide his time. The way he likes AR's, he'll probably ask for SecDef. Then he brings in Failure2Stop as Deputy Secretary for Training.

The biggest issue here is really the Lt Gov slot. A LOT of the real political power is in the Lt Gov's office, it's been that way since Reconstruction. Wendy Davis might run for that job instead of Governor, and that would be a smart thing for the Dem's to do. The current Lt Gov Dewhurst alienated a LOT of people when he ran against Ted Cruz for US Senate. His primary campaign was so negative it frankly cost him the race.

Wendy Davis is now the Democratic poster child here in Texas, and watch for a ton of out of state money to pour into her campaign for Governor or Lt Governor. She will not win, but she's going to run, as it will position her for a federal position if Hillary takes the 2016 Democratic Presidential nomination. Davis's district in Fort Worth will likely not re-elect her, the Tea Party is getting stronger there every day.

The Attorney General office is really important here. They control the rules through the Department of Public Safety on CHLs and other issues. Greg Abbott kicked ass and took names in that role. He got us reciprocity with many other states. Ken Paxton and Dan Branch are running for that job, both would do well. I think Paxton might take it, but Branch has a lot of support from other legislators in Austin.

So if you want Texas to stay red, you want to elect Abbott, Paxton/Branch, and ditch Straus. But watch the Lt Gov election closely, along with who gets to be Speaker of the House. That will be how the electoral maps and redistricting gets done. The Dem's know that, are patient, and want to get it. It's why the photo ID law is so critical down here. Abbott beat Holder's brains out at SCOTUS over that, and Holder took it personally.

If you think Perry was vocal about the US DOJ, wait till you see Abbott as Governor.

So yeah, this place can go blue, we are watching for it, and are working to prevent it. Complacency will kill us. Vote, give money, talk to your friends. Support candidates in other states, so we keep them occupied elsewhere.

My dream ticket would be a Paul/Cruz ticket winning in 2016, and they tap Abbott for US Attorney General, or even better - a SCOTUS nomination. You want Second Amendment rights protected? Put Abbott on SCOTUS.

[MountainRaven]

In related news: NPR.org - How California is Turning the Rest of the West Blue.

(You will note, I hope, that there is a chart showing the top states for California expats to move to and Texas is somewhere below Montana... and Montana is at the bottom of the list at 6.8%.)

Short version: The rest of the West is becoming more liberal because conservative Californians are more liberal than liberal folk from the rest of the West. I cannot help but feel that the truly conservative, gun-loving Californians clinging to California are not helping this trend, at all, by remaining in California. Conservativism is simply becoming more diluted as liberal-progressivism spreads.

[SeriousStudent]

HA! This is one of the funniest things I've ever heard. If you ever think for a second "yes" you need to travel more.

Texas will turn blue the day Ronald Reagan comes back from the dead.

I don't know how much time you have spent in Texas lately, but your confidence is unfounded. I wish you were correct, but I fear you are not.

I'm saying that as a native Texan that watched Texas swing from solidly Democrat in the 1960's, to GOP in the 1980's, and sees signs of it switching back.

The GOP does not see it the way you do, and neither do the Democrats in this state and elsewhere. The points others make about California and Colorado are correct. Especially about the urban population centers. Look up Eddie Bernice Johnson and Sheila Jackson Lee, and be prepared to barf.

Over-confidence is exactly what the Dems want you to feel.

Not cussing you out, just saying vigilance is in order.

[Mac5.56]

I guess since I live in the insanity that is NY I can't really see Texas going this route...

But you'll are right I don't live there. However, a few people that want to start a rock band in Austin thought and don't care about gay people doesn't mean you're turning into California... (that's a joke so please refrain from the typical 'down one's throat' m4C responses).