Is the EOW getting closer or further away?

[amac]

I have been following the global conspiracy theory, End Of the World predictions, crash of "the" monetary system, collapse of society, etc., etc, etc. for over 15 years. There have been conflicts, new laws passed, political lies continuing, liberalization of the US is ongoing, entitlement recipients ballooning, national / sovereign debt grows globally, attempts to outlaw gun ownership and still nothing. I thought 2008 was the beginning of the end, but the financial world was bailed out. Many believe this kicks the can, but other, smarter than me, economist suggest it doesn't have to end badly. My closets are close to full with food storage. I now need to start cycling my stored foods (and see if my preservation method actually worked) and am considering new methods to extend life cycles. But my question is whether we are moving closer to the SHTF scenario I've been planning for or could we be another 15 years or more away? Personally, I'm inspired by the Tea Party movement and non-establishment Republicans getting into Congress. Small steps with each election can transform Congress. Anyone else feel lulled into a false sense of security?

[soulezoo]

*tin foil hat on* In a philisophical sense, yes, each day brings us closer to the end... but it could be like the tail end of the glacier coming out of a fjord. The thing is, the closer we seem to get to SHTF there always seems to be a way out. While those that think that the "banksters" (defined however you wish) are going to crash us, to what end does that really serve them? The collapse of civilization to the point where there is no one to make a yacht? What good is all the money if there is no luxury in using it?

I'm sorry... while I am absolutely "prepared" for "shtf or whatever", I really don't see it happening to the extent folks envision (long term/large scale) where anyone you see is armored up and humping their m4 with 12 mags everywhere they go.

False sense of security... nah. Evil is out there and our Govt is a complete disaster; however, I do not foresee SHTF soon. Carpe Diem

[markm]

In my opinion the collapse of America as we know it is a self fulfilling prophecy... expedited by the fukktard in the White House.

Life will continue on, though. We're just forcing our standard of life down to that of every other shithole country in the world.

[Ick]

History seems to indicate that societies at "the top of the heap" meander on for decades and decades in constant decline. Rarely is there a sudden and catastrophic turn for the worse over a huge geographic area.

A quick google yields this result:

http://listverse.com/2012/12/26/10-f...rough-history/

... and some of these were regional non-top of the heap economies. How many were sudden and catastrophic of the nature envisioned by the current day prepper as seen on TV? I doubt the society imagined where you have to carry your M4 and 12 mags all day as stated is not going to happen.

Look at the Roman Empire, it took the Western empire a long time to decay and the Eastern Constantinople lasted a thousand years. Check your learned history... most people think Rome's collapse was sudden and swift, it was not... for either part of the empire.

Two exceptions that cause sudden changes:
War
Act of God, for example: The Great Flood, impending rapture of His Church with expected events to follow.
Massive die-off like this, but that isn't usually sudden collapse either
http://www.sarahwoodbury.com/wp-cont...tionchart2.png

I am just saying: Perhaps it is true that a fool doesn't prepare at all. A responsible man should prepare to support his family for potential unforeseen events. I am just saying Britain has experienced a hundred years of decline. I think we are going to see the same thing if something doesn't change inside our culture.

[soulezoo]

I agree with the above. We'll have ups and downs and what we currently see is the decline of the US along the same lines as England. England didn't have rioting in the streets when the Pound lost reserve status. Although Soros made out good with Pound manipulation. The places we see civilization crumble are places like Syria and Libya and etc. Even most of SE Asia is fairly stable. Crimea and Ukraine for all its upheaval still has people going to work every day.

Now the one exeception to this pattern-- at least in terms of modern history with some cultural parallels-- is Bosnia/Kosovo. That is the SHTF that everyone prays never occurs. But even here I can envision some sort of insurrection. Look at all the illegals. How much disease has to be spread before there is some sort of uncivil reaction? The class warfare, race baiting and etc. Unlikey stuff, sure. I hope to hell it doesn't happen. But, never get so complacent that we don't at least discuss it.

Many things today that we simply are not willing to believe our government will do just because we are America. Yet look at how many things have been done... like bonus marchers as a good instance.

[Eurodriver]

History seems to indicate that societies at "the top of the heap" meander on for decades and decades in constant decline. Rarely is there a sudden and catastrophic turn for the worse over a huge geographic area.

A quick google yields this result:

http://listverse.com/2012/12/26/10-f...rough-history/

... and some of these were regional non-top of the heap economies. How many were sudden and catastrophic of the nature envisioned by the current day prepper as seen on TV? I doubt the society imagined where you have to carry your M4 and 12 mags all day as stated is not going to happen.

Look at the Roman Empire, it took the Western empire a long time to decay and the Eastern Constantinople lasted a thousand years. Check your learned history... most people think Rome's collapse was sudden and swift, it was not... for either part of the empire.

Two exceptions that cause sudden changes:
War
Act of God, for example: The Great Flood, impending rapture of His Church with expected events to follow.
Massive die-off like this, but that isn't usually sudden collapse either
http://www.sarahwoodbury.com/wp-cont...tionchart2.png

I am just saying: Perhaps it is true that a fool doesn't prepare at all. A responsible man should prepare to support his family for potential unforeseen events. I am just saying Britain has experienced a hundred years of decline. I think we are going to see the same thing if something doesn't change inside our culture.

This is an excellent post that is well thought out, and has both sources and hard data.

I wish more posts on this forum were like this.

I also agree with Ick.

[rkba01]

The world-as-we-know-it will always change slowly and if anything is going to turn all the lights out in a large area at once, it will come from outer space. Either a "gift" from the Sun, supplier of all energy that drives life itself, or a large asteroid.

Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news...ul_superstorm/

Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack (April 2008)
Full Report: http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2...ission-7MB.pdf
Executive Report: http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf

[SteveS]

The end of the world comes closer and closer every day. For the whole world? Maybe. For ourselves yep!!! I was lucky enough to know a couple WWII air crew members who were shot down and were in POW camps. They told me to not fear death and your time to die comes it is supposed to.

[amac]

I'm in agreement with the slow change / destruction premise. I'm a planner by profession and prepper as a result of personal experience. I've been somewhat influenced by popular marketing of a sudden collapse looming. However, there are signs all around that this is not the case. The index for leading economic indicators has been up 5 months in a row. The equity market remains strong, housing market is solid, job growth is consistent and high yield debt defaults are at an all time low. Better, pro-growth economic policies would jolt the US economy. With $2.6t of individuals money in money market funds and $1.6t of corporate cash on the books, there is a lot of money waiting to be put to work. Many people equate good times with financial conditions. Things could get real good real fast if we had the right leadership.

However, the party can / could end quickly. I am watching and waiting to see what big companies will do with their health insurance policies in 2015. That's the year when big corp can start moving their employees over to the health care exchanges. In the interest of the bottom line, I foresee many companies choosing the most profitable route - the exchange. Mega companies like GE, Home Depot, IBM, Time Warner and Walgreen's have already made the move. What's more, there are countless stories of premium increases. In time, this will show up in our consumer driven economy. Add the mountain of new regulation, continued use of executive orders, passing new legislation in the faith of protecting Americans and the federal reserve's printing press pushes taxpayers deeper into servitude; we quickly become the frog in the pot.

The situation I envision is that once America hits the flexing point, people will simultaneously wake up and demand better. But, it will be like that insurance policy you never read. When you call in to file a claim, the rep politely informs you that your claim isn't covered - there's an exclusion for "that". After you pull out the policy, you realize you've been paying for insurance that the insurance company quietly mailed out amendments that created exclusions for everything you once had. Problem was, you never took the time to read the letters you received in the mail.

[SOW_0331]

Allow me to quote a fine film of great philosophical value...

"There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT!"

We have been here before and will be here again. The world is always about to end, and certainly the world we as Americans/Westerners enjoy. We live in the Information Age. Things that, twenty years ago even, wouldn't have made the five o'clock news, are now being blasted from media sources that we hold in our hands. Tribal war in the Middle East, that's nothing new. And it's always been this savage. Look at how many times places like Israel, Mesopotamia, and other "holy" lands have changed hands in leadership. Ask the native Americans how quickly the world as they know it can change. We look to fear mongering news sources to tell us everything is okay. If everything is okay, they lose their power, so they blast you with scary stories and images. 24/7, FEAR.

We in turn have gotten comfortable being on top. Why not, we've been on top for a hundred years, how could that EVER change? And we base our sense of normality on yet again another man made comfort system. We look to government, imaginary treasury and currency, or religions to tell us where we stand and how we're doing. And all of those could be wrong tomorrow and our whole life would have been meaningless up to that point. Imagine if the dollar tomorrow wasn't worth the paper it was printed on. What did you spend your whole life working for? Your swelling savings account now means shit and you are equal with your neighbor who struggles paycheck to paycheck.

Because we strive for validation of our importance. We buy into the idea that life is a competition, we are all in this together, but some of us work harder and deserve a little more. Some animals are more equal than others. Don't believe me? Take all your money out of your accounts, in cash. Throw it in a pile. Burn it. Show your neighbors that you and they no longer need someone to tell you what your time and labor is worth and how to place a trade value on it. You'll be fine, I promise.

Because dudes, we all die. Some us will be dead before Christmas, some of us will see another fifty of those damned holiday seasons. If tomorrow everything went to shit, there would still be doctors going to work. There would be farmers farming, mechanics fixing cars, utility workers keeping the lights on. Of course, that's a dangerous thought and those who currently NEED our participation will tell you that pure anarchy and loss of government will lead us to canibalism and savagery. Meh. It happens all over the world and has happened a thousand times since recorded history. We'll be fine. Don't live in fear.