Realistic SHTF Scenarios;

[M&P15T]

I've mulled this over, discussed it on other forums, and there really isn't much I can come up with.

There's weather related, regional issues first and foremost. Something like Katrina. And I think such a situation depends on getting out of the area before the weather hits, if possible.

Then there's civil un-rest, as in Ferguson. Obviously it's become politically incorrect for LEAs to treat such situations harshly by shooting the first few looters and burners, so this has become more of an issue. Since looters and burners are treated with kit gloves for political reasons, I foresee this becoming more of an issue in the future. The scum have been emboldened by not being dealt with properly, so I think this issue will grow.

Other than that, I just can't see any other realistic SHTF scenarios.

Any other ideas?

[Warp]

I've mulled this over, discussed it on other forums, and there really isn't much I can come up with.

There's weather related, regional issues first and foremost. Something like Katrina. And I think such a situation depends on getting out of the area before the weather hits, if possible.

Then there's civil un-rest, as in Ferguson. Obviously it's become politically incorrect for LEAs to treat such situations harshly by shooting the first few looters and burners, so this has become more of an issue. Since looters and burners are treated with kit gloves for political reasons, I foresee this becoming more of an issue in the future. The scum have been emboldened by not being dealt with properly, so I think this issue will grow.

Other than that, I just can't see any other realistic SHTF scenarios.

Any other ideas?

If you live in a residence, in a residential area, looters/burners are an entirely different thing than a business district/retail area filled with shops and restaurants and the like that are closed and empty when most of those shenanigans take place.

There are an untold possibility of situations, many of which we probably haven't even thought of as a possibility.

Weather events can cause massive widespread destruction, infrastructure failure, emergency services overload, civil disorder, etc. When the power goes out, maybe gas lines are shut off or broken, maybe the water is off or non-potable, maybe there are fires, maybe buildings and bridges and other structures have collapsed, delivery trucks aren't bringing food or anything else, etc, things can get hairy quickly. Earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, Yellowstone caldera eruption, whatever. Not everything is as predictable or see-it-coming as a large hurricane. And even then you better get out really early, as in, before you even know if you really need to get out, otherwise, well, I probably don't need to post a picture of the interstate system in Texas for Rita, right? We know how that can go.

Maybe it's a solar flare jacking up all sorts of electronics/communications/etc.

Or perhaps it is the spread of a dangerous contagion, real or inflated, that keeps people at home instead of out performing their emergency services, opening the grocery store, or driving the trucks that bring the supplies to the stores.

Maybe some type of war or large scale military conflict breaks out and supplies of many goods drop significantly.

Maybe a nuclear power plant in your area goes chernobyl. Maybe a well done coordinated attack/act of terror causes multiple plants to do so simultaneously?

Prior to 9/11 who would have posted to one of these threads, from NYC, and said "Maybe terrorists will simultaneously hiajack four commercial aircraft and use them to damage the Pentagon and tear down both of the world trade center towers"? Nobody, because everybody else would laugh at them. Right?

[Ready.Fire.Aim]

Deleted

[HardToHandle]

Electrical grid instability.

Good comments. Especially for folks in Texas.

[South]

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[G19A3]

This is a good possibility, however, a lot of the scenarios are overstated. If the power goes out in a few states for a week, it is not going to be TEOTWAWKI. I have personally been to areas where multiple states had very large scale outages for 2-3 weeks by the time we arrived. It was not chaos, people were not killing each other in the streets for goods.

My past job for years was working on the power grid, and it is in poor shape in the majority of America. If a large scale blackout were to take place, and by large scale, I mean 2/3 or more of the US, it could be really, really bad. Take for instance small scale power outages just in my area. A localized thunderstorm will take out power to around 30,000 people in one city in my area. It can take up to three days just to get things back together to a reasonable percentage. That is with every available crew in the immediate area working. Now expand this to an entire state, then the east coast, etc etc.

Contrary to popular belief, power grid parts are not in short supply. However, if most of the nation's grid was destroyed and had to be replaced. We do not have enough materials on hand to fix this, and it would take a while before we did. And if half of the country or more was completely out of power, sh*t would go downhill very quickly.

Not being an electrician, why can't you just flip a switch on the circuit breaker??

[Keith E.]

Having previously worked electrical utilities up and down the Mid-Atlantic for 20yrs, things going south without power was very location dependent. We could be working areas where the public was cooking outside, acting reasonable, offering us all the food that one could ever want. We could then be assigned to areas where local LEO would strongly advise us to wait until daylight to enter an area, cautiously.

Keith

[Moose-Knuckle]

Having previously worked electrical utilities up and down the Mid-Atlantic for 20yrs, things going south without power was very location dependent. We could be working areas where the public was cooking outside, acting reasonable, offering us all the food that one could ever want. We could then be assigned to areas where local LEO would strongly advise us to wait until daylight to enter an area, cautiously.

Keith

I have a cousin who's company was contracted to go into NOLA after Katrina to help restore power. While working up on transmission lines/towers they would take gunfire. They actually had a Blackwater team escort them for a time.

[Moose-Knuckle]

If average well fed (obese really) people act like this during normal times when the lights are on over $2 waffle makers and other discounted made in China crap just imagine how they would act if they or their children were hungry in a time of crisis, or needed antibiotics, or potable water, et al. . . .










"We're only nine meals away from anarchy . . ."

"Civilization, a thin veneer over barbarism."

[fyrediver]

I think some of the SHTF scenarios that are realistic are earthquakes, severe weather, even a pandemic or localized influenza outbreak.

However some are simply slow-moving disasters that start to build up momentum and then cascade into other areas. Ships being delayed off loading in a port due to a longshoremen strike has crippled large areas in the past. Both inbound and outbound cargo is delayed, rots, spoils, etc. Grocery store shelves go bare. Fuel, food, merchandise all get delayed, hours get cut and paychecks follow suit.

We don't have any redundancy in our supply chain so it runs bare very quickly. Food riots like mentioned before suddenly become a reality. Social unrest, riots, all follow quickly. Right now the pump is primed with already extensive social disturbances, longshoremen work slow downs and stoppages, and a long-term recession.

Build a deep larder, prepare as best as you can, have redundancy in critical areas, and pay attention! Don't get lulled into a routine and not pay attention to the protests. Know where they are (local radio, PD/FD radio) and how to avoid them. I was speaking to a lady friend and she was getting ready to drive to Seattle. I asked her about the protests and she hadn't thought of them --- the latest protesters had blocked I-5 but since she became aware she was able to take an alternate route. Otherwise she'd have been stuck behind a mob.