Realistic SHTF Scenarios;

[Jackal556]

It really is a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. Another reality that is concerning to me is if you do or do not help someone in need they can/will turn around and try to take what is yours by any means available to them. Now a thirty something single mother may not pose much of a threat but she can blab to the outlaw biker gang/thugs/meth heads down the road and blow your OPSEC all to hell.

This is where a game plan comes into play, that is how do you fend off these type of people? Shoot first, ask questions later? I would assume that if a group of these wrong doers starts to wander in your area that you are better off taking them down. Plus if a mother gets turned away from a group do you think she will make it with a group of outlaw type biker gang, let alone a group of meth heads? This assuming the mother is one who doesnt do drugs and actually cares about her kids.

Granted I think most if not all of us here would want to try and save as many lives to form a strong group but there will be times when tough choices will have to be made.

Also something I have not seen being discussed is of these groups who would be in charge? You? A friend in the group? How would you handle a decision that the leader of your group makes that goes against what you think should be done? Or if your the leader of the group and want to do something that others dont feel is right? Would you form your own governing body that takes a vote on each situation?

You can have all the supplies in the world to live through a long term SHTF scenario but if everyone is at odds with each other the group will end up with dead bodies and all those supplies up for grabs.

[rcoodyar15]

Just my opinion

In a real SHTF scenario

best thing is to be as far away from people as possible. When picking a bugout spot try to stay away from obvious evacuation paths. Be inconspicous.

you will not survive very many firefights without injury and gunfire will attract too much attention. Serious injury means death in this scenario.

Go to ground and stay hid for 6 months to a year. Most of the helpless will be dead by then.

Its when you start to try to put things back together again when things will get interesting. Remember only the strong have survived!

[Warp]

Each of us live in different areas, climates with different kinds of people. The idea of community is going to be the best bet to survival for the long term.

But each situation will decide each solution. Most cases it is best to stay home but at what point do you listen to your gut feeling and get out?

Do you have a "safe" location where due to what ever threat that makes you leave town you lay low?

For me it depends on what happens will dictate whether I hang out at home or retreat to the safe area.

As far as the question of if a mother with amfew kids came around and they had not eaten in days and you have to decide whether or not to give them food.... My answer is it all depends on the situation.

How will you know the other area is safe before you even leave? Not to mention the path in between.

[Jackal556]

How will you know the other area is safe before you even leave? Not to mention the path in between.

That is a good question. Unless you plan some sort of communication through HAM or CB radios to verify, its going to be a shot in the dark but that varies depending where you live. If you live in a big city it is probably going to be harder to bug out than if you live on the outskirts.

Now clearly you should not state the exact location by an obvious name or cordinates but if you plan as a group within your group you can make callsigns for a particular place.

Lucky for me is I live way far away from the city and I am very familiar with back roads and where they lead. Having maps helps as I have used them to locate places where I have camped at (not traditional camp sites).

Just some tips for those that not have thought about that far but some important things in prepping is:

•If you have a group you will be with be all on the same page for what to do and where to go.
•Having some sort of communication through HAM or CB.
•Know your area and alternate paths to get to the safe zone.
•Bring what you can but be prepared to leave stuff behind if it hinders your ability to travel on foot. Have a bug out kit ready for what you will carry at all times. Stuff that doesnt but is deemed important should go in your alice pack

[Outlander Systems]

Its when you start to try to put things back together again when things will get interesting. Remember only the RUTHLESS have survived!

Fixed it.

[Moose-Knuckle]

Plus if a mother gets turned away from a group do you think she will make it with a group of outlaw type biker gang, let alone a group of meth heads? This assuming the mother is one who doesnt do drugs and actually cares about her kids.

It is plausible the mother in this scenario would run into a group of baddies. She would more than likely not join such a group willingly, they would more than likely harm her and or her children she will try to pull the old "Oh if you spare us I'll tell you where there is some food" etc. Of course the baddies would get the info from her and do as they please in the end.

[Eurodriver]

"Go West young man . . . "

LOL, you have to understand the literature I referenced was published in the 70's. Highly outdated. The go to long arm then was the Mini-14 just to give a reference point to how long ago we are talking about.

Ahhh.. haha. Makes sense.

RE: your post about LEOs and uniforms.

Yep. If it really gets bad, I don't care what uniform you are wearing you can expect to have problems if you try to take my stuff. I mean, technically speaking if the US Gov't has collapsed, then no one has any authority anyway regardless if you are wearing a uniform but aren't LE, or you're actually LE.

Of course the odds of it getting that bad are zero.

[docsherm]

Ahhh.. haha. Makes sense.

RE: your post about LEOs and uniforms.

Of course the odds of it getting that bad are zero.

Right.... Becuase nothing like that is going on already......

[Slab]

My .02

Bad things happen. Whether they be man-made, natural, or a combination of both. They can land (and most often times are) in the short term category and run the gauntlet to long term. In my mind’s eye it makes since to have the mindset, training and tools to handle the realistic events your geographic/geo social area is/are likely to produce. Examples might be, wild land fires, earthquakes, tornados, hurricanes (typhoons for the other side), riots, etc… These things happen and they cause a lot of “knock on” effects…

The rub for me is the idea that people are going to “go firm” and repel the “hordes” that attack their homes or they are going to “bug out” to their “retreat” and play out a “community” survival movie. The guy that thinks that he can repel a dozen armed men that manage to wrangle up some basic tactics (like suppression/maneuver) will figure out real quick that modern homes are like modern cars-they don’t stop incoming rounds well. “One man” tactics SUCK! The “bug out/community” sounds easier than it is; as long as humans have populated the earth we haven’t figured out how to NOT kill the shit out of each other, over differences… “team/community” dynamics would be extremely difficult at best in this scenario. MOST people TODAY, do not have the skills to head to the hills/commune. Even something as “simple” as growing your own food is a learning experience waiting for those who have never done it. Growing a dwarf fruit tree in a climate controlled home is entirely different than growing a functioning garden that you are relying on to feed your family. There is a reason why successful farming is typically multi-generational… I’m not even going to go into the animal piece (chickens/dairy goats/rabbits/Emus/etc…) that’s a whole other discussion.

Where does it all end?

Have your home “prepped” for the short term stuff, <6mo… Alternative heating/water/food storage/medical/some humanitarian, ammo/mags/claymores (thought that would be cool), etc…

BUT, in case you are overrun you have to have a bailout plan. Now you have to either load (what if it is like War of the Worlds and you only have about two minutes…) or keep all of that loaded and head out… In order to avoid “refugee” status, you have to have a place to “bail out” too… IF you don’t already keep it stocked with the same items that you had at the house (double sets of equipment=butt ton of money) then the effectiveness of having the “cabin” is kinda shot, kinda. IF you selected the perfect area (no people, not along natural lines of drift, natural-water source, protein in the area, good soil for your garden…. Hopefully you remembered the seeds.) then you may be okay. Maybe. Of course, then there are the numerous caches that have been built (more gear/$) just in case you had to “leave it all” on the way to the cabin…

BUT, what if the hordes eventually catch up and stumble into your AO, and you lose the fort. You have to have another bailout plan and your gear is ready to go at all times, now you are one of the hordes (impolite way of saying refugee)….

Where does it all end…. How do you keep it realistic/viable, and “healthy”…. Serious question, not being sarcastic…Unlike above comments

[rcoodyar15]

Somewhere in there you will probably get killed.

At what point is it just not worth it any more. Most of the prepper types look at this like a great adventure. Living like they did during the settlement of this country would be damn hard. Most of us are way too soft and don't have the skills to make it.

Best way to survive is to have food and water for a year and crawl in a hole and stay for a year. Avoid all contact with people. Most of the population would be dead by then. Big problem is when you crawl out of that hole and start trying to put a life back together the only people left will be the strong and hard. Question is do you have what it would take to survive? Would you really want to?