Realistic SHTF Scenarios;

[Ready.Fire.Aim]

Deleted

[docsherm]

Fuel is very important. Just think how bad things would get if there is an interruption for any period of time. First thing is prices will rocket up and then the stealing will come.

[Pilot1]

Electrical grid instability. I won't go into any details on specific vulnerabilities.

BIG SNIP (read the original post though)

^^^^^^^^^THIS. You must be an energy insider, as this is all very accurate. Our electrical generation, transmission, and distribution system is very, very fragile, and vulnerable. Just about everything runs on electricity, and what doesn't requires electricity to be pumped, or distributed. It just snowballs, as this gentleman's post indicated, and doesn't take much time to turn civilized society sour. That is why remote cabins with wood stoves, water wells with hand pumps, and stocked supplies are the most livable.

The greatest threat we have is to our electrical grid. If we know it, those who wish to do us harm also know it.

[rcoodyar15]

lights go out, no fuel at the gas station, no food at the supermarket

these scenarios can show just how fragile our civilization is for city people

If you live in a rural area and are even slightly prepared you will look at it as more of an inconvenience than anything at least for the first 2 weeks

any longer and refuges will start flooding out of the cities and they will be pretty desperate

hunger will make a man do things he wouldn't normally think of. Protecting his family and trying to feed them you better watch out

anyway none of this is likely to happen except on a short term localized area. Gov. should be able to get control of the situation pretty quickly

nice to be prepared when it happens

just something I have been thinking about. lots of us have 10 thousand rounds or more of ammo stored. I just wonder what the statistics are on survival in a firefight. Wonder if you would live long enough to shoot up 10 thousand rounds. Sure wouldn't want to have to hump all that ammo. My truck better keep running and fuel better be available.

[Warp]

just something I have been thinking about. lots of us have 10 thousand rounds or more of ammo stored. I just wonder what the statistics are on survival in a firefight. Wonder if you would live long enough to shoot up 10 thousand rounds. Sure wouldn't want to have to hump all that ammo. My truck better keep running and fuel better be available.

Stashing ammo to the tune of 10k rounds is, for most, about being able to continue training, practice, regular shooting, etc, in the event of an interruption in ammunition availability. I think we have a couple of fairly recent experiences to draw from there.

It isn't, generally, because anybody actually believes they'll shoot through 10k rounds of ammo on a two way range.

[themonk]

Gov. should be able to get control of the situation pretty quickly

If you look at the numbers this is an extremely difficult task. The fed does not have the resources. A lot of this will fall to your local sheriff and what they do to recruit and manage the situation.

Our society is made up of interlocking systems and as those systems fail their dependencies on one another exponentially increase the reboot time. If you go 30 days without proper systems 20% of the poulouse will be dead just do to the inability to get proper medical support via prescription drugs or medical devices that need electricity, this doesn't account for the 50% of the population that is lost without technology like microwaves and grocery stores. 20%+ of the populace dead is a massive sanitation issue, these things have a way of cascading on themselves.

[Outlander Systems]

Get a deep larder going NOW.

Determine where/how to obtain/store water NOW.

I distinctly remember electric companies put all hands on deck, and pulled almost every available crew in my area (Atlanta) to assist after the Hurricanes in Texas. This left very, very few crews available here. Around the same time there were major gasoline shortages here. One female coworker of mine was sobbing, begging me to try and find her gas when I was going to another county to visit a site. I had mentioned that I still saw some gas stations operating down there.

Also, during Snowmageddon 2014, the grocery stores were absolutely ravaged. It literally shut this town down. A coworker of mine came into work in loafers the morning of (this comes into play later). On his way home, the 4WD went out in his truck, and he was stuck several miles from home...needless to say, a pair of boots in the truck would have been a nice thing to have. Another coworker hiked 18 miles from the office to his home (dude through-hiked the AT and cross-country bicycled so the hike was nothin but a thang). I shagged ass the instant it started looking nasty, and was home drinking beer in time to watch the shit show live on TV. One of the field crews working for me did not heed my warning to leave the job site and return post haste, and ended up being stuck in the gridlock for almost 14 hours. Lesson for me is, it ain't "hard ass" to stay put. Ain't no shame in popping smoke and bugging out before the shit gets nasty. My wife worked downtown at the time, and her coworkers berated her for bugging out. She told them upon arrival that she was leaving early as she already had an experience of being stranded in ATL gridlock during a previous snowstorm. Her coworkers faired VERY poorly, as the majority waited until 17:00 to join the party.

The video posted of the Black Friday shoppers should be a sobering reminder; if people are willing to trample each other and fight over a $10 discount Chicom toaster...just keep OPSEC in mind. Unless your friends are preppers, keep your mouth shut. Trust abso****inglutely no one.

For gas, I can't recommend Starbrite Star Tron enough. Stuff is miraculous in carbureted engines.

http://www.starbrite.com/category/star-tron-automotive

Preppers get carried away and focus on TEOTWAWKI, but it's the mini-Apocalypse that's far more likely. The big one is gonna come down to luck more than anything. Simple stuff, like keeping a cheap poncho in your car can make the difference. Try changing a tire, in the dark, during torrential slushy sleet/rain, and I guarantee you ain't gonna make that mistake again.

[sevenhelmet]

A little stored gas goes a long way. There was a small run on gas in California a couple of years ago when one of the refineries was temporarily shut down. I just continued driving to work using some of my stored gas. Others had to carpool, but the level of panic was disproportionate. The "good" Jerry cans are getting harder to find, but they are still out there. Many who consider themselves prepared also don't keep enough water in storage to last more than a day or two. A family member once bragged to me about how prepared he was in case of a disaster in his large city. I raised the idea of utility failure combined with gridlock, and pointed out how he had only 2 packages of bottled water on the premises. Bugging out probably won't be an option for him, unless he does it early. 55 gallon drums of water don't take up much space, and last a heck of a lot longer than a few plastic bottles in the bottom of a closet.

My priorities in preparing for some sort of mini/local-disaster are as follows:
-Water
-Food
-Shelter
-Safety/Defense
-Recovery plan (includes supplies, such as fuel, which might be necessary)

One of the biggest issues I take with current political and civic leadership is that they have not invested properly in infrastructure, allowing the system to become more fragile while simultaneously condoning violent protests in cities by not squashing them appropriately. This means not only are local "denial of service" type disasters more likely, but they are more likely to result in violence much earlier than they might have even just 5-10 years ago.

[fyrediver]

I think some of the SHTF scenarios that are realistic are earthquakes, severe weather, even a pandemic or localized influenza outbreak.

However some are simply slow-moving disasters that start to build up momentum and then cascade into other areas. Ships being delayed off loading in a port due to a longshoremen strike has crippled large areas in the past. Both inbound and outbound cargo is delayed, rots, spoils, etc. Grocery store shelves go bare. Fuel, food, merchandise all get delayed, hours get cut and paychecks follow suit.

We don't have any redundancy in our supply chain so it runs bare very quickly. Food riots like mentioned before suddenly become a reality. Social unrest, riots, all follow quickly. Right now the pump is primed with already extensive social disturbances, longshoremen work slow downs and stoppages, and a long-term recession.

Build a deep larder, prepare as best as you can, have redundancy in critical areas, and pay attention! Don't get lulled into a routine and not pay attention to the protests. Know where they are (local radio, PD/FD radio) and how to avoid them. I was speaking to a lady friend and she was getting ready to drive to Seattle. I asked her about the protests and she hadn't thought of them --- the latest protesters had blocked I-5 but since she became aware she was able to take an alternate route. Otherwise she'd have been stuck behind a mob.

[Moose-Knuckle]

One of the most frightening quotes from this piece:

"The media will initially portray these "food riots" as at least partly justifiable."

Think about that for a bit...think about the changing popular public perception of those who have exercised some personal initiative, common sense, etc and prepared. I don't have enough ammo...

Precisely.

We can look to recent events such as the riots in Ferguson, MO of how the media portrayed what happened there was nothing more than some poor, unrepresented, disfranchised youth expressing their frustration via marches and protests. Bovine feces! Arson, fuel bombs, looting, assaults on LEO’s are not forms of peaceable assembly afforded to every American via the First Amendment, rather they are violent acts of civil unrest.
The mainstream media is nothing more than the propaganda wing of the current regime. There is a shift in this country by the likes of POTUS, AG Holder, etc. attempting to demonize/criminalize what they refer to as the “notion of self-defense”.