Realistic SHTF Scenarios;

[Moose-Knuckle]

lights go out, no fuel at the gas station, no food at the supermarket

these scenarios can show just how fragile our civilization is for city people

Today an American family will sit down to consume a meal comprised from ingredients that were trucked over land via reefers to their local groceries from a network of distribution centers that average 1500 miles away. Your run of the mill grocery store will have approximately two days’ worth of inventory during normal daily operations. The fragility of the system veers its ugly head every time there is a winter storm here and the bread isle and frozen pizza section are picked clean within hours of the storms arrival. Hurricanes and blizzards that effect large areas compile these issues. It does not take too much of an imagination to see how things will be during a widespread event.

If you live in a rural area and are even slightly prepared you will look at it as more of an inconvenience than anything at least for the first 2 weeks

any longer and refuges will start flooding out of the cities and they will be pretty desperate.

Rural areas will become "secondary crime scenes" once the golden hoard flee urban population centers into outlining areas. Historically during a crisis, roadways become impassable within hours from the start of said event. During the golden age of Survivalist literature the rule of thumb was to live at minimum one automobile’s tank worth of gas away from the nearest town. This is becoming ever increasingly difficult to accomplish with current population trends combined with people’s personal finances and the need to live in close proximity to employers located in or immediately outside major population centers.

anyway none of this is likely to happen except on a short term localized area. Gov. should be able to get control of the situation pretty quickly

The .gov's response to Katrina and Sandy have taught us otherwise.

[Vash1023]

water and power...

i live in NW ohio and we recently had a "water crisis" where all the areas water was unsafe to drink (couldnt even boil it and drink it)...

i shit you not, within the first 3 hours people were robbing each other at gunpoint for cases of water and stores hiked up the prices to several dollars for 1 bottle or $20 for a case....

it was bad enough were i decided to stay home on my day off...

so id say this is a serious and realistic scenario...

and if the power would have gone out there would have been hysteria and riots i.e. Ferguson style...

[Keith E.]

During the golden age of Survivalist literature the rule of thumb was to live at minimum one automobile’s tank worth of gas away from the nearest town.

200-300+ miles from a town is going to be very hard to accomplish.

Keith

[docsherm]

I would say that the current rule is one tank of fuel away from large metropolitan areas. That is still possible in many places.

But if you think about it you could remove about 90% of the people if you just do 1/2 a tank of fuel....most people barely have that most of the time because it take too long to fill up all the way. I kid you not, I know people that only fill their tanks up 1/2 way to save time. WTF?

[Outlander Systems]

200-300+ miles from a town is going to be very hard to accomplish.

Keith

No joke. Don't be Johnny Hardass, and get involved in the fray. Bug in, and let the herd eat each other.

[Moose-Knuckle]

200-300+ miles from a town is going to be very hard to accomplish.

Keith

Yup, I guess if I ever hit the Power Ball jackpot I could do it but until then I have to work for a living so not so much.

I would say that the current rule is one tank of fuel away from large metropolitan areas. That is still possible in many places.

But if you think about it you could remove about 90% of the people if you just do 1/2 a tank of fuel....most people barely have that most of the time because it take too long to fill up all the way. I kid you not, I know people that only fill their tanks up 1/2 way to save time. WTF?

I forget sometimes growing up and living in TX that I'm just used to being in a car for awhile going any where. People move down here form states that are the size of some of our counties lol.

A SOP of mine is to keep my truck topped off, every time I hit 3/4's of a tank I fill up. It amazes me that people "save time" by only filling up a half a tank. Like it takes so long to do, hell by the time I check all four tire's air pressure the pump's auto shut-off clicks and I'm gone.

No joke. Don't be Johnny Hardass, and get involved in the fray. Bug in, and let the herd eat each other.

The only problem with this is eventually no matter how good your OPSEC is someone will hear your genny running, maybe spy a glimpse of a light on through your blackout curtains, smell food cooking, etc. and then it's on like Donkey Kong. We live in the burbs currently and wish to move further out someday when it's feasible.

[MikeDawg46L]

Let's not forget that in order to BUG in you have BE in.

Do you have a plan to get home if the normal routes you take are shut down or too congested to pass? Do you have kit in your car to help you get to safety if you're not able to make it by vehicle?

I live way out in the sticks and commute into and through a major metro area to work. Luckily my work is in a small town outside the city, but I still commute through it now as the quickest way to get there. In the event of a major storm (we've had bad ice storms that crippled transit like ATL in recent years) or civil fallout like Fergudishu, I have alternate routes in place already, which include getting to my wife for her safety and getting us home.

Just something to think about.

[markm]

water and power...

i live in NW ohio and we recently had a "water crisis" where all the areas water was unsafe to drink (couldnt even boil it and drink it)...

Yep. I remember hearing about that one on the news.

Let's not forget that in order to BUG in you have BE in.

Do you have a plan to get home if the normal routes you take are shut down or too congested to pass? Do you have kit in your car to help you get to safety if you're not able to make it by vehicle?

Good point. This is a huge issue for me. If there's a freeway shutdown for whatever reason, my trip home gets ridiculous. If a real serious situation unfolded, it'd be the Mogadishu mile for 10-20 miles for me.

[tbaker]

I kid you not, I know people that only fill their tanks up 1/2 way to save time. WTF?

I know people who do the same crap, it really does make you say wtf.

Another viable threat I would perceive in a "smaller" disaster scenario would be, and maybe i'm just very biased down here in Houston, in addition to the rise of looters/fsa, the quick rise in heavy/deadly gang activity if the local LEO was stretched very thin/unable to respond. Supposedly I reside in the "safe" zones of the western Houston suburbs, but even after Katrina, we saw the influx of crime take its toll. Border states, in general, I think would see additional issues of various hordes coming out to inflict their damage.

[Savior 6]

Wouldn't it be the shield with cross M4s with maybe an "M4C"?

I made a thread like two years ago about a m4c patch, lots of interest. But no one came up with a design.

This is too easy to overlook and good to be reminded of a few times. One might have to consider different "bug in" options like friends' or family's houses.

Let's not forget that in order to BUG in you have BE in.

Hilarious.

...Fergudishu....