How WWIII starts.

[Jellybean]

...

Iran finally achieves nuclear bomb capability and the missile capability necessary to use it.
...

What if they already have it?
What if they figured out long ago that it would be simply cheaper to work out a deal with a willing partner/nation to simply buy what they want. Perhaps they've done it years ago and have had a nuke for a long time.
At the same time they keep *just* enough of their nuclear program alive to play the boogeyman. Everyone focuses on that, and they get to run around gathering riches and concessions from people trying to essentially buy them out of the nuke game. It's a win all around for them...
This was actually not my idea- there was a pretty interesting article on this theory somewhere out there on a web news site. It seems to make a lot of sense if you think about it.

[MountainRaven]

What if they already have it?
What if they figured out long ago that it would be simply cheaper to work out a deal with a willing partner/nation to simply buy what they want. Perhaps they've done it years ago and have had a nuke for a long time.
At the same time they keep *just* enough of their nuclear program alive to play the boogeyman. Everyone focuses on that, and they get to run around gathering riches and concessions from people trying to essentially buy them out of the nuke game. It's a win all around for them...
This was actually not my idea- there was a pretty interesting article on this theory somewhere out there on a web news site. It seems to make a lot of sense if you think about it.

Apart from practically imploding their economy due to sanctions.

[Moose-Knuckle]

Well what is referred to as WWIII will be brought about by the world's oldest banking cabal. While they pose as Jews and have since the 18th century, they're really Khazars.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

Well what is referred to as WWIII will be brought about by the world's oldest banking cabal. While they pose as Jews and have since the 18th century, they're really Khazars.

I knew it was Khazar Soze all the time....

I thought the Cold War was WWIII, the war on Terrorism was WWIV- so this would be WWV - or does that get even more confusing with the whole WWF and the world wildlife fund and what every red blooded American knows should refer to wrestling. Which isn't actually wresting, or is that actually difficult to talk about with the whole Hastert thing?

[ColtSeavers]

What if they already have it?
What if they figured out long ago that it would be simply cheaper to work out a deal with a willing partner/nation to simply buy what they want. Perhaps they've done it years ago and have had a nuke for a long time.
At the same time they keep *just* enough of their nuclear program alive to play the boogeyman. Everyone focuses on that, and they get to run around gathering riches and concessions from people trying to essentially buy them out of the nuke game. It's a win all around for them...
This was actually not my idea- there was a pretty interesting article on this theory somewhere out there on a web news site. It seems to make a lot of sense if you think about it.

I honestly don't believe Iran itself will be the ones to 'launch'. They are too enthralled with being both lead and follow in the mambo as well as playing three card monte (and flat out refusing to show the card when guessed correctly) with inpectors.

I believe that they will let it out into the wild with someone else to take the action and blame leaving them in the clear, or at least with deniability.

[cbx]

We are not going to see any peer to peer conflicts ladies and gentlemen.

Everyone talks shit and acts tough. The consequences are too great for all. It's the strength of our modern military and everyone else's coupled with nuclear arms. That's what insures the peace. Yeah, there will be skimishes, but your not going to see us or nato get into it with the Russians or Chinese.

MAD is solid. Look how long it's worked.

I agree with you guys that a lot of things is effed right now. But a shooting war between super powers, not a chance. No nation with nukes is going to go toe to toe. Proxy wars most definitely, but P2P, no chance.

If WW3 does get the punt kick off, it'll last about an hour. Then expect an austere life for the survivors. Look to how Katrina went to get an idea of what it'll look like. No one has balls enough to roll the dice on that one. I don't care are loco you are.

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

We are not going to see any peer to peer conflicts ladies and gentlemen.

Everyone talks shit and acts tough. The consequences are too great for all. It's the strength of our modern military and everyone else's coupled with nuclear arms. That's what insures the peace. Yeah, there will be skimishes, but your not going to see us or nato get into it with the Russians or Chinese.

MAD is solid. Look how long it's worked.

I agree with you guys that a lot of things is effed right now. But a shooting war between super powers, not a chance. No nation with nukes is going to go toe to toe. Proxy wars most definitely, but P2P, no chance.

If WW3 does get the punt kick off, it'll last about an hour. Then expect an austere life for the survivors. Look to how Katrina went to get an idea of what it'll look like. No one has balls enough to roll the dice on that one. I don't care are loco you are.

Arch-duke whackings and their effects are hard to predict.

Could be as simple as a unseen asteroid with multiple impacts spooking the Indians, Pakastanis or NKs.

Iran isn't going to use the bomb anymore than the NKs will. That is all about regime change. The delta is the difference between being a Kim Jong Un and Khadaffi.

[Doc Safari]

Radical Islamists do not subscribe to the MAD doctrine. In their view the world must be thrown into chaos in order for the Mahdi to appear and restore order (under an Islamic caliphate, of course).

We are not dealing with rational individuals motivated by earthly gain, but with madmen who are bent on causing destruction so that their Islamic "messiah" appears.

That is the difference between this era and the Cold War.

Russia, China, Venezuela, et al, are willing to fight conventional wars to further their means, and are rational enough to subscribe to the MAD doctrine. Not so the Islamists.

[cbx]

I agree that radical Islamists don't adhere to MAD doctrine. But, you never see the leaders do the suicide bombing. It's always subordinates. The will to live and survive is hardwired in anything living.

It takes political or ideological conditioning to do otherwise. Even when an individual sacrifices themselves for his fellow man, it's so that the fellow man can survive.

Survival is the bottom line. Even if the most jihad driven man in charge on the planet decides to up the ante, I'm pretty sure that they know that if they torch off a WMD, the response will be in kind.

All I'm trying to say is don't lose sleep over the impending doom of a WW3 shooting scenario. It's not going to happen, and if it does, you can't do Jack about it. Just sit back, put on your shades and enjoy the light show.

[Doc Safari]

All I'm trying to say is don't lose sleep over the impending doom of a WW3 shooting scenario. It's not going to happen, and if it does, you can't do Jack about it. Just sit back, put on your shades and enjoy the light show.

Well, I'm stocking up on supplies that might be rationed or in short supply, like ammo, emergency food, etc.

Ask an old timer what rationing in World War 2 was like. Makes you want to get a Sam's Club card and go to town.