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Thread: Observations on the Points of Impact of Statistically Significant Shot-Group Sizes

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    Observations on the Points of Impact of Statistically Significant Shot-Group Sizes

    Observations on the Points of Impact of
    Statistically Significant Shot-Group Sizes





    The Set-up

    For this ballistic exercise I used a semi-automatic AR-15 with a 20” stainless steel Lothar-Walther barrel. This barrel has a 223 Wylde chamber with a 1:8” twist rate. This Lothar-Walther barreled AR-15 has produced 10-shot groups with extreme spreads measuring in the “sixes” (0.6xx inches) when fired from the bench at a distance of 100 yards using match-grade hand-loads. Prior to the beginning of this exercise, this barrel had approximately 2,040 rounds fired through it.














    The ammunition used for this exercise was factory loaded Black Hills red-box 223 Remington ammunition seated with the 69 grain Sierra MatchKing with a cannelure. Since I had been testing other ammunition with the Lothar-Walther barreled AR-15 prior to the beginning of this exercise, as well as throughout this exercise, I fired three “seasoning rounds” of the Black Hills 69 grain Sierra MatchKing ammunition to condition the bore of the Lothar-Walther barrel with the powder used in this factory load. This process was repeated immediately prior to shooting each of the groups evaluated for this exercise.















    All of the shooting for this ballistic exercise was conducted from a concrete bench-rest at a distance of 100 yards (confirmed with a laser rangefinder.) The Lothar-Walther barrel used in this exercise was free-floated in a LaRue Tactical railed free-float handguard. The free-float handguard of the AR-15 rested in a Sinclair Windage Benchrest (with the aid of a Sinclair forend bench-rest adaptor) while the stock of the rifle rested in a Protektor bunny-ear rear bag. Sighting was accomplished via a Leupold VARI-X III set at 25X magnification and adjusted to be parallax-free at 100 yards. A mirage shield was attached to the objective-bell of the scope. Wind conditions on the shooting range were continuously monitored using a Wind Probe. The set-up was very similar to that pictured below.












    The Wind Probe.








    The Groups


    No changes were made to the elevation or windage settings on the scope throughout the entire course of this exercise and the exact same point of aim was used when shooting each group. After firing the three “seasoning rounds” of the Black Hills 69 grain Sierra MatchKing ammunition, I settled-in and fired a 20-round group of the aforementioned ammunition. The group is pictured below. The center of the 20-round shot-group is located in the lower-right quadrant of the two inch circle on the target. After shooting this group, I continued testing other ammunition from the same Lothar-Walther barreled AR-15.










    A little later that day, I fired a second 20-shot group of the Black Hills 69 grain Sierra MatchKing ammunition from the Lothar-Walther barreled AR-15. The second group is pictured below.









    As you can see, the center of the second 20-shot group showed no significant shift whatsoever in its location on the target as compared to the first 20-shot group. The next image shows the first and second 20-shot groups over-layed on each other using Adobe Photoshop with the blending opacity set at 50%; further illustrating that the centers of the two 20-shot groups showed no significant shift in their locations on the targets compared to each other.










    On an additional trip to the shooting range, I repeated this entire ballistic exercise just as described above. The findings were the same; the centers of two 20-shot groups fired from the Lothar-Walther barreled AR-15 using the same lot of Black Hills 69 grain Sierra MatchKing ammunition showed no significant shift in their locations on the targets compared to each other. Nor did the centers of these third and fourth 20-shot groups show any significant shift in their locations on the targets as compared to the first and second 20-shot groups fired in the previous ballistic exercise.

    The graphic below shows all four of the 20-shot groups over-layed on each other (forming an 80-shot composite group) illustrating that the centers of all four of the 20-shot groups showed no significant shift in their locations on the targets compared to each other. Of those 80 shots in the composite group, 95% of them are contained in a covering-circle that has a diameter of 0.97 MOA. All of the 80 shots in the composite group are contained in an area-of-dispersion (bounding rectangle) that measures 1.07 MOA wide by 1.08 MOA high.











    ….
    All that is necessary for trolls to flourish, is for good men to do nothing.

  2. #2
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    I appreciate you having taken the time to write this out Molon.

    I feel like, alone, this might not be too intriguing to many but I'm sure it'll see good use as a source in other discussions.
    Nobody ever got shot climbing over the wall into East Berlin.

    Delivering the most precision possible, at the greatest distance possible, with the highest rate of fire possible.

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    Molon-are these results typical of what you normally see when shooting the same ammo from the same gun, under the same conditions, etcetera?

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    Quote Originally Posted by taekwondopreacher View Post

    Molon-are these results typical of what you normally see when shooting the same ammo from the same gun, under the same conditions, etcetera?
    Pertaining to the centers of statistically significant shot-group sizes not having any significant shifts in their locations on the target? Yes.
    All that is necessary for trolls to flourish, is for good men to do nothing.

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    Some great data to work with, now people will actually have to find a reason why their POI shifted instead of blaming the gun or ammo.

    If possible will you run this test again in the winter when the temps drop. I've always adhered to the notion that you needed a "hot weather zero" and a "cold weather zero." It would be interesting to see how much a difference seasonal temperature makes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by vicious_cb View Post

    If possible will you run this test again in the winter when the temps drop.
    These days, my outdoor shooting activities go into hibernation starting around this time of year here in Michigan.



    ....
    Last edited by Molon; 10-19-15 at 19:28.
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    LOL! Being a native Texan, I heartily agree with that but when I was in MI some 20 years ago, the Monroe gun club start their HPR matches in Oct. Too hot during the summer the said. I found it quite difficult to have trigger control when my fingers were numb!

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    Quote Originally Posted by TomD View Post

    LOL! Being a native Texan, I heartily agree with that but when I was in MI some 20 years ago, the Monroe gun club start their HPR matches in Oct. Too hot during the summer the said. I found it quite difficult to have trigger control when my fingers were numb!
    I have a difficult time getting a good read of the wind when the snow is piling up on my Wind Probe.


    ....
    Last edited by Molon; 10-31-15 at 22:06.
    All that is necessary for trolls to flourish, is for good men to do nothing.

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    Thanks Molon. Very nice info. I just moved to Michigan recently and will be testing my cold weather skills.

    I have a friend who has developed a new style of wind meter, it detects up and down drafts as well as side to side wind. He's working on pre production models right now:

    https://m.facebook.com/Range.Windmeister

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    Quote Originally Posted by azoutdoorsman View Post

    I have a friend who has developed a new style of wind meter, it detects up and down drafts as well as side to side wind. He's working on pre production models right now:

    https://m.facebook.com/Range.Windmeister
    Interesting. Keep us updated on that.
    All that is necessary for trolls to flourish, is for good men to do nothing.

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