The GOP path to victory?
I know that this is going to go high and right immediately, but I thought I would give it a try... So first off, let me state, I am your basic political hodge podge. I am conservative when it comes to budget, foreign policy, defense, guns, small government (actually small, not Patriot Act small). I am more liberal on social issues like choice, marriage equality... So I feel like I am literally without a home in our current political system. I won't vote for Hilary or Bernie - ever. But here is my problem:
I don't get the electoral college math that the GOP is looking at. Folks like Cruz will turn out huge numbers in red states that the GOP already carry. That will drive up the popular vote numbers. The challenge is that the popular vote in a state (once you have 50 percent) is irrelevant. That is not how we win elections. It is about flipping states. What current red states that Obama carried in 2012 will someone like Cruz bring into the GOP column? I am having a hard time finding enough to get the GOP to 270. Now with a Rubio/Kasich, Kasich/Rubio, Bush/Kasich ... I think you put Florida in play and Ohio in play. That is a huge start. With Cruz or TRump you might get Wisconsin, might get PA and VA... but the math just doesn't add up to 270. He won't get WA, Oregon, California. He wont get the North East. He won't get Florida.
When the democrats got smoked in election after election, the DLC and Bill Clinton pulled the Democrats towards the middle - although they didn't stay there. When the GOP get smoked, the response is to go further right. Again, I just don't get it. The talking point about "if we stick to our conservative principals we will win" doesn't match the electoral college reality.
Here is my prediction (and in November I'll circle back and eat crow if I'm wrong). If the GOP run Trump or Cruz they are going to get smoked in the electoral college. Not Reagan Mondale... but smoked. Hilary is flawed, beatable, and unsubstantive candidate. THe GOP should win in a walk but they are going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...
So help me out. How does Cruz get to 270? How does Trump (I think even most experts have no clue about Trump). This question is not about who is best, who is more conservative... It is strictly about getting to 270. Getting down to brass tacks, how does the GOP get to 270 with any of their front runners?
Damien
If a large number of people are willing to kill you for saying something, then it probably really needs to be said. .
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