The GOP path to victory?

[KTR03]

I know that this is going to go high and right immediately, but I thought I would give it a try... So first off, let me state, I am your basic political hodge podge. I am conservative when it comes to budget, foreign policy, defense, guns, small government (actually small, not Patriot Act small). I am more liberal on social issues like choice, marriage equality... So I feel like I am literally without a home in our current political system. I won't vote for Hilary or Bernie - ever. But here is my problem:

I don't get the electoral college math that the GOP is looking at. Folks like Cruz will turn out huge numbers in red states that the GOP already carry. That will drive up the popular vote numbers. The challenge is that the popular vote in a state (once you have 50 percent) is irrelevant. That is not how we win elections. It is about flipping states. What current red states that Obama carried in 2012 will someone like Cruz bring into the GOP column? I am having a hard time finding enough to get the GOP to 270. Now with a Rubio/Kasich, Kasich/Rubio, Bush/Kasich ... I think you put Florida in play and Ohio in play. That is a huge start. With Cruz or TRump you might get Wisconsin, might get PA and VA... but the math just doesn't add up to 270. He won't get WA, Oregon, California. He wont get the North East. He won't get Florida.

When the democrats got smoked in election after election, the DLC and Bill Clinton pulled the Democrats towards the middle - although they didn't stay there. When the GOP get smoked, the response is to go further right. Again, I just don't get it. The talking point about "if we stick to our conservative principals we will win" doesn't match the electoral college reality.

Here is my prediction (and in November I'll circle back and eat crow if I'm wrong). If the GOP run Trump or Cruz they are going to get smoked in the electoral college. Not Reagan Mondale... but smoked. Hilary is flawed, beatable, and unsubstantive candidate. THe GOP should win in a walk but they are going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...

So help me out. How does Cruz get to 270? How does Trump (I think even most experts have no clue about Trump). This question is not about who is best, who is more conservative... It is strictly about getting to 270. Getting down to brass tacks, how does the GOP get to 270 with any of their front runners?

[Mauser KAR98K]

By turning large cities in their own Districts, comparable to D.C. This way rural and suburban counties aren't getting creamed by siffon cities.

[KTR03]

but they already carry their own districts. That increases popular vote counts... It doesn't change state alignment or elector college math. You have to take blue states back not increase victory margins in red states.

[glocktogo]

I know that this is going to go high and right immediately, but I thought I would give it a try... So first off, let me state, I am your basic political hodge podge. I am conservative when it comes to budget, foreign policy, defense, guns, small government (actually small, not Patriot Act small). I am more liberal on social issues like choice, marriage equality... So I feel like I am literally without a home in our current political system. I won't vote for Hilary or Bernie - ever. But here is my problem:

I don't get the electoral college math that the GOP is looking at. Folks like Cruz will turn out huge numbers in red states that the GOP already carry. That will drive up the popular vote numbers. The challenge is that the popular vote in a state (once you have 50 percent) is irrelevant. That is not how we win elections. It is about flipping states. What current red states that Obama carried in 2012 will someone like Cruz bring into the GOP column? I am having a hard time finding enough to get the GOP to 270. Now with a Rubio/Kasich, Kasich/Rubio, Bush/Kasich ... I think you put Florida in play and Ohio in play. That is a huge start. With Cruz or TRump you might get Wisconsin, might get PA and VA... but the math just doesn't add up to 270. He won't get WA, Oregon, California. He wont get the North East. He won't get Florida.

When the democrats got smoked in election after election, the DLC and Bill Clinton pulled the Democrats towards the middle - although they didn't stay there. When the GOP get smoked, the response is to go further right. Again, I just don't get it. The talking point about "if we stick to our conservative principals we will win" doesn't match the electoral college reality.

Here is my prediction (and in November I'll circle back and eat crow if I'm wrong). If the GOP run Trump or Cruz they are going to get smoked in the electoral college. Not Reagan Mondale... but smoked. Hilary is flawed, beatable, and unsubstantive candidate. THe GOP should win in a walk but they are going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...

So help me out. How does Cruz get to 270? How does Trump (I think even most experts have no clue about Trump). This question is not about who is best, who is more conservative... It is strictly about getting to 270. Getting down to brass tacks, how does the GOP get to 270 with any of their front runners?

Who is more moderate than McCain or Romney? Jeb?

Yeah, good luck with that.

[crusader377]

I think Trump can easily get to 270 because he has a higher likelihood of pulling a few of the Rust Belt starts that are battleground states and perhaps even a few light blue states. I think Trump can win in places like WI, OH, MI, and might be able to pull PA from the democrats. Plus one thing that Trump has is he has thought "out of the box" his whole campaign and conventional wisdom might not apply to Trump as much as a typical establishment GOP candidate.

Cruz on the other hand, I don't think can get 270. The reason why is I don't think he will perform particularly well in the Midwest.

[KalashniKEV]

I know that this is going to go high and right immediately, but I thought I would give it a try... So first off, let me state, I am your basic political hodge podge. I am conservative when it comes to budget, foreign policy, defense, guns, small government (actually small, not Patriot Act small). I am more liberal on social issues like choice, marriage equality... So I feel like I am literally without a home in our current political system.

Like most Americans...

When the GOP get smoked, the response is to go further right. Again, I just don't get it. The talking point about "if we stick to our conservative principals we will win" doesn't match the electoral college reality.

What you are talking about is the myth of the phantom electorate.

The assertion is that nobody voted (R) because the GOP failed to present a true extremist. Key to this claim is the false notion that the middle of the United States is filled with radicals who will boycott the polls unless they see a full-on kook listed on the ticket (no half kooks accepted!).

The architects of this strategy are, of course, the same undercover Democrat party operatives that hijacked the TEA Party (Taxed-Enough-Already) and sabotaged it into the perverse hate machine it is today.

If you keep an eye out, you can spot them easily.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/dona...a-party-plant/

So help me out. How does Cruz get to 270? ...It is strictly about getting to 270. Getting down to brass tacks, how does the GOP get to 270...

The GOP never gets there.

Not-ever-again in American history.

The GOP won't reform- so they either fade away slowly into obsolescence, after many years of painful defeat, or they crack up, fall apart, and get replaced by something closer to the first part of the OP (quickly).

[SomeOtherGuy]

I think Trump can easily get to 270 because he has a higher likelihood of pulling a few of the Rust Belt starts that are battleground states and perhaps even a few light blue states. I think Trump can win in places like WI, OH, MI, and might be able to pull PA from the democrats.

If Trump were the GOP's candidate, I think he could win most or all of those states. But I think the GOP establishment will do everything possible to prevent him from being the candidate, regardless of primary results.

As far as Cruz, he has little to no image or presence in the midwest.

[KTR03]

Who is more moderate than McCain or Romney? Jeb?

Yeah, good luck with that.

I guess you told me...SO pick the conservative of your choice and get them to 270... Its not about ideology or positions... its about electoral college math. Run the numbers for me. Which states does your guy - whoever that is - switch over to get to 270.

[brickboy240]

The GOP establishment seems to be positioning themselves for another circular firing squad. Couple that with the onslaught from the media and WHAT path to victory are you talking about?

It does not appear that the RNC really wants to win, lead or reform a damn thing, if you ask me.

The Democrats want to win and they are willing to do anything to get there. They will ignore Bill Clinton's sexual behavior and ignore Hillary's mistakes from Whitewater to e-mail servers to Benghazi. They will make up any kind of lies or stories about the GOP opponent they think they can get away with. They will have their minions in big media host and steer the debates. This is how they win on the national level.

On the state, county and local levels, yes, the GOP can smoke the Democrats and have done so in the mid-terms both times during the Obama regime. They also did it back in 1994.

However on the national level for the presidency, we are about to turn the corner and probably never see another GOP member get the White House.

Sad...but this seems to be where we are today.

[eightmillimeter]

If the GOP would stop beating dead horses of abortion and gay marriage they could run 3/4 of the table. I mean seriously. The people it would piss off will still vote R at the end of the day. How many court decisions and laws in favor of those two issues have to pass before they realize it's not worth the fight.