The GOP path to victory?

[glocktogo]

If they backed down on abortion, I would not vote for them

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What does abortion have to do with the good governance of the United States?

[Averageman]

I think if this wasn't allowed to be made in to such a devisive issue, it would allow someone to make some real change.
Until someone makes it in to office they wont be able to prosecute those at PP who were so giddy selling baby parts to finance a new Lambo.
Falling dead on your sword for a single issue, an issue that you know is a conservative value will only allow the Hildebeast to win.

[WillBrink]

I know that this is going to go high and right immediately, but I thought I would give it a try... So first off, let me state, I am your basic political hodge podge. I am conservative when it comes to budget, foreign policy, defense, guns, small government (actually small, not Patriot Act small). I am more liberal on social issues like choice, marriage equality... So I feel like I am literally without a home in our current political system. I won't vote for Hilary or Bernie - ever. But here is my problem:

An old school Republican - who was fiscally "conservative" and socially "liberal" or modern day Libertarian knows how you feel, as I know how you feel.

I don't get the electoral college math that the GOP is looking at. Folks like Cruz will turn out huge numbers in red states that the GOP already carry. That will drive up the popular vote numbers. The challenge is that the popular vote in a state (once you have 50 percent) is irrelevant. That is not how we win elections. It is about flipping states. What current red states that Obama carried in 2012 will someone like Cruz bring into the GOP column? I am having a hard time finding enough to get the GOP to 270. Now with a Rubio/Kasich, Kasich/Rubio, Bush/Kasich ... I think you put Florida in play and Ohio in play. That is a huge start. With Cruz or TRump you might get Wisconsin, might get PA and VA... but the math just doesn't add up to 270. He won't get WA, Oregon, California. He wont get the North East. He won't get Florida.

When the democrats got smoked in election after election, the DLC and Bill Clinton pulled the Democrats towards the middle - although they didn't stay there. When the GOP get smoked, the response is to go further right. Again, I just don't get it. The talking point about "if we stick to our conservative principals we will win" doesn't match the electoral college reality.

Here is my prediction (and in November I'll circle back and eat crow if I'm wrong). If the GOP run Trump or Cruz they are going to get smoked in the electoral college. Not Reagan Mondale... but smoked. Hilary is flawed, beatable, and unsubstantive candidate. THe GOP should win in a walk but they are going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory...

The GOP should have and could have easily walked away with the vote in the last election. It was not as much that the Dems won, but the GOP lost. It was there for the taking, and they farcked it up by putting forth Romney. Should the GOP get Trump or Cruise, it will be a guaranteed loss with Trump, and a likely loss with Cruise. The only candidate worth backing is Paul. Why more don't see that, I don't know, but it does not bode well.

So help me out. How does Cruz get to 270? How does Trump (I think even most experts have no clue about Trump). This question is not about who is best, who is more conservative... It is strictly about getting to 270. Getting down to brass tacks, how does the GOP get to 270 with any of their front runners?

They don't. The End.

[jesuvuah]

And on the other side of that us Trump coming out with Palin as a supporter and Cruz doing the same with Glen Beck, WTF are these guys thinking?



Really?, Because I'm agreeing with Eurodriver on this one, I don't care what they say to get elected. We are at a serious crossroad and if one vote loses this to Hillary, we're screwed.

Really! I will not endorse anyone who endorses an act I know to be absolutely wrong. I understand what you guys are thinking but it is that important to me

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[KTR03]

I find it interesting that none of the folks who support Cruz can lay out a path to victory for him. Simply put the majority of the country just isn't that conservative. Hell, look at the poll numbers for GOPers under thirty - even they are for marriage equality and are pro choice.

My hope for the GOP is that if they run Cruz and get smoked -and they will - they can at least lay down this fable about "we don't win because we didn't run a conservative". We are not winning because the social stances are not popular. Just like the democrats did with welfare reform, crime… They shifted stances. I hope that when this happens, we can get back to Reagan/Goldwater conservatism and end the choke hold one type of religious conservatives have over the party. My fear is that it will be too late. We will do a thread necropsy in November and see who is right, but math is a stubborn thing … if you can't get to 270 electoral votes you can't win.

[glocktogo]

I find it interesting that none of the folks who support Cruz can lay out a path to victory for him. Simply put the majority of the country just isn't that conservative. Hell, look at the poll numbers for GOPers under thirty - even they are for marriage equality and are pro choice.

My hope for the GOP is that if they run Cruz and get smoked -and they will - they can at least lay down this fable about "we don't win because we didn't run a conservative". We are not winning because the social stances are not popular. Just like the democrats did with welfare reform, crime… They shifted stances. I hope that when this happens, we can get back to Reagan/Goldwater conservatism and end the choke hold one type of religious conservatives have over the party. My fear is that it will be too late. We will do a thread necropsy in November and see who is right, but math is a stubborn thing … if you can't get to 270 electoral votes you can't win.

Simply put, you can't get to 270 without the high percentage of us the establishment RINOs abandoned. If Cruz or one of the other non-RINOs doesn't win the nomination, the GOP is toast.

[KTR03]

Simply put, you can't get to 270 without the high percentage of us the establishment RINOs abandoned. If Cruz or one of the other non-RINOs doesn't win the nomination, the GOP is toast.

Y'all crack me up. You assert that w/o Cruz the GOP is toast. So again, at the risk of being repetitive… tell me which states Obama carried that Cruz will win. No extra points for bright red… you need to convert blue states… moderate states… spell it out.

[Stengun]

Howdy,

Unless another GOPer enters the race that's electable Hillary will win by a bigger landslide than Bill won by in '96 and Obama won by in '12.

34% of GOPers might back the Donald but they are the only ones that will vote
For him in November.

Paul

[Eurodriver]

Y'all crack me up. You assert that w/o Cruz the GOP is toast. So again, at the risk of being repetitive… tell me which states Obama carried that Cruz will win. No extra points for bright red… you need to convert blue states… moderate states… spell it out.

PA, WI, OH, FL if he doesn't start saying bullshit like rape is God's will...

[PatrioticDisorder]

Howdy,

Unless another GOPer enters the race that's electable Hillary will win by a bigger landslide than Bill won by in '96 and Obama won by in '12.

34% of GOPers might back the Donald but they are the only ones that will vote
For him in November.

Paul

What world are you living in? Hillary isn't even going to be the D nominee and Trump is very likely to be the nominee and he will win in an enormous landslide... I'm also convinced Trump winning isn't necessarily the best thing for the country, but he will completely change the face of the Republican Party and will actually turn them into winners.