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Thread: Single stack 9mm, are there stats on avg shots fired in self defense situation?

  1. #1
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    Single stack 9mm, are there stats on avg shots fired in self defense situation?

    For some reason I really want a p7m8; I sold one many years ago because at the time, I felt the capacity was lacking.

    With the advances in 9mm, I am rethinking that choice.

    Are there statistics that show the average shots fired in a civilian defense situation?
    (I specify as I know that there are lots of Law enforcement that I would imagine have different needs)

    I would imagine situations like gas station, downtown areas, across state traveling and day-day in a fairly safe area
    ( I am not looking to crash a meth house, or serve warrants)
    I much as I would think a double stack would be nice, I wouldn't imagine firing 15 rounds in my perceived threat levels.....
    But that's why I humbly ask;

  2. #2
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    Check out the websites, podcasts, and posts of noted experts Claude Werner and Tom Givens. Both cover and quantify citizen uses of firearms in self defense and their related variables exceptionally well. There are other sources too, but both are widely regarded as leaders on the topic.
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  3. #3
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    There is no "average", just watch the news. Everything is going to crap everywhere. Personally I don't leave the house with less than 11 rounds (G26). More often than not it's something with a 15 round mag, 9 rounds just doesn't sound like that many for that kind of weight (P7). Me and my wife shoot a lot of fun shoots / league shoots around here and she shoots her Shield and I shoot the G26. Even with only 3 targets to engage that capacity goes quick. You also have to figure under extreme stress you may miss. In fact you may miss a lot.

    I'm sure stats can be found with the DOJ or FBI, maybe Ayoob files etc.. What the average is anymore just isn't going to hold true, too much mental illness, criminals in groups or even excited delirium. Not to mention terrorists.

  4. #4
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    I carry the gun that conceals well with my wardrobe and is not so cumbersome that I avoid carrying it.

    Ammo capacity is not a factor, because a low capacity gun is better than no gun at all.

    And aside from LE serving warrants, I bet that my lifestyle puts me in parts of town/situations that would make me far more likely to need a gun than the majority of the family-oriented M4C members.
    Last edited by Eurodriver; 06-28-16 at 15:44.
    Why do the loudest do the least?

  5. #5
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    I prefer a high capacity weapon, but for carry as a civilian or off duty, I would feel completely comfortable carrying a single stack 9mm with a single or double mag holder.

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    This is stolen from a friend at LAPD. He says expect two bad guys, missing 75% of your shots fired and the idea that pistol calibers are terrible people stoppers. So even if you hit you may have to fire a lot to change the suspects mindset. if you have a 6 shot .380 how will you fare? His minimum carry was a Glock 26 with +2 extension and a G17 or 19 mag as backup.

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    If you hang around gun boards, gun guys, LE folks, etc, you'll see a lot of the same stuff from credible sources come up over and over. The themes are:

    -Handguns are weak and ineffective as a general rule, it may take many COM/high COM hits and a little time to stop an attacker, only disabling the CNS is a guarantee
    -Typical hit rates for OIS and private citizen self defense seem to run about 20%, give or take. Maybe even slightly higher for the private citizens given the different nature of typical encounters
    -One or, more likely, both parties will be moving and/or behind cover or concealment
    -The matter will probably be settled, one way or the other, with what is in the gun at the time (for private citizens reloads in self defense seem quite rare)
    -That said, rule of 3's says that many/most private citizen defense handgun uses in public will be within 3 yards, 3 seconds, 3 rounds
    -Best as we can tell, in the majority of defensive gun uses, no shots are fired. Often when shots are fired nobody is hit, and about 80% of those shot by a handgun survive

    Edited to add:
    -Most defensive gun uses by private citizens do happen in low light or no light or otherwise reduced visibility, night sights are recommended
    Last edited by Warp; 06-28-16 at 19:14.

  8. #8
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    First - a reference point......
    My day job is as a professor (NOT your typical lib, btw). I teach Forensics, with emphasis on 'death analysis'. I consult around the state, and give workshops to local LEOs. While not an active operator by any means - I have talked to many who are/were, and I've been reading anecdotal and scientific AARs for close to 40 years.

    Having said that - I don't leave the house with less than a g26 with 16 rounds in it, and 2 x 12 reloads for a total of 40 rounds of 124 +P. Actually - that is what I carry all the time I'm around the house. Preferred load out is a g17 with 2 x 17 reloads on me and more nearby or in the car. YMMV

    john
    jmoore (aka - geezer john)

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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Warp View Post
    If you hang around gun boards, gun guys, LE folks, etc, you'll see a lot of the same stuff from credible sources come up over and over. The themes are:

    -Handguns are weak and ineffective as a general rule, it may take many COM/high COM hits and a little time to stop an attacker, only disabling the CNS is a guarantee
    -Typical hit rates for OIS and private citizen self defense seem to run about 20%, give or take. Maybe even slightly higher for the private citizens given the different nature of typical encounters
    -One or, more likely, both parties will be moving and/or behind cover or concealment
    -The matter will probably be settled, one way or the other, with what is in the gun at the time (for private citizens reloads in self defense seem quite rare)
    -That said, rule of 3's says that many/most private citizen defense handgun uses in public will be within 3 yards, 3 seconds, 3 rounds
    -Best as we can tell, in the majority of defensive gun uses, no shots are fired. Often when shots are fired nobody is hit, and about 80% of those shot by a handgun survive
    Great synopsis.

    Regarding the OPs specific question, I too have seen and heard plenty of knowledgeable individuals refer to the "rule of 3's". It makes sense. Most defensive stories that are shared go something like this. BG acts in a manner that warrants force. Good Guy pulls gun (sometimes fires, sometimes doesn't), BG is stopped or runs away. Most criminals will choose to pack it in when confronted by the barrel of a gun. They may be stupid and have no regard for common decency, but are smart enough to know it's no fun being shot.
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    I did not know the man quoted above, and joined this Forum after his passing. He seemed to be a leader of men; both spiritually and physically. Someone we'd all be proud to emulate.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eurodriver View Post
    I carry the gun that conceals well with my wardrobe and is not so cumbersome that I avoid carrying it.

    Ammo capacity is not a factor, because a low capacity gun is better than no gun at all.

    And aside from LE serving warrants, I bet that my lifestyle puts me in parts of town/situations that would make me far more likely to need a gun than the majority of the family-oriented M4C members.
    Dat's cuz to live in FL where even the Gators have an AR15, which is as it should be.
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