What Will Kill In A Long Term Disaster? (~1 Year)

[Averageman]

I would say this type of an event will be rather difficult for those who now are so challenged by daily life that they require a "Safe Space" in the here and now.
I would guess the numbers of suicides will be astronomical about a week after the power goes out and they realize it's not coming on again for a bit.
http://campusreform.org/?ID=8168

[danco]

I would guess the numbers of suicides will be astronomical about a week after the power goes out and they realize it's not coming on again for a bit.

Numerous dead bodies of suicides lying around decaying also won't help the public health/sanitation issue...

[chuckman]

Numerous dead bodies of suicides lying around decaying also won't help the public health/sanitation issue...

Yup. As my daughter would say, "that be nasty."

[rkba01]

Don't forget that these decomposing and rotting bodies are leaking fluids. Overland sheet flow during rain events will make sure all those juices end up in the surrounding water bodies. Do not drink ANY surface water without boiling it, not even a small sip.

Our culture depends heavily on a very intricate and complicated supply system for water and food. Break that system and a most grim picture will appear.

Imagine a country where the public water supply and food system has broken down.

Within three days all cities will loose ~75% of their population in search of water and food. Most of these people will die within those three days from dehydration. There will be thousands and thousands of bodies around these cities contaminating most of the surface waters available.

People that somehow managed to survive will get sick from contaminated water. People not directly impacted by contaminated water supplies will face many contagious diseases that used to be suppressed with medical technology that no longer exists.

Survivors will face the fact that the normal food supply system no longer exists. They will go in search for food. Many will die of starvation as not many people can survive off the land. Those lucky enough to find food in whatever form it is available will still face contaminated water supplies and numerous contagious diseases.

Many people that are well prepared will be facing a horrible situation. It is going to be the luck of the draw for the next six months. After that people will regroup and organize to survive whatever is thrown at them in whatever way they can. It will be a terrible future (by current standards) for whoever survives the initial purge. Kids will grow up not knowing better and will adapt and accept much faster and better than us old farts.

Within one generation (~15 years because life expectancy has dropped back to ~30yrs old) there will be a new equilibrium, whatever that turns out to be.

Hopefully -if you can say such a thing- the rest of the world is similarly impacted or the continent will more than likely face an invasion from a foreign power. This continent is just too valuable to leave alone.

I personally don't think that it will happen, but it is not impossible. Think continent-wide EMP attack or 'Footfall' type rocks.

So in the interim, we can and should prepare for less catastrophic events. Because the 'big one' is such a sh!tshow that I'm not sure how to prepare for it, maybe I don't even want to. But I will make sure that my kids' kids have what I think it might take to survive in that world.

[drsal]

Sickness/Injury would be my first concern. Lack of access to health facilities in the event of severe trauma,airborne respiratory pathogens, contamination of water reservoirs, etc.
The causes of such problems can be up for debate.

[tower59]

Grocery stores nation-wide are less than 3 days until empty under normal, non-emergency conditions. It is worth repeating. What would people do if their children were starving? What wouldn't people do if their children were starving?

[Mr. Goodtimes]

I think the primary long term killers of people will be be disease and other people.

As was mentioned before, you'll Initially you'll see the chronically ill die off. Then there is a certain percentage of the population that is barely civil as it is, once they find out they can go full retard without legal repercussions, they absolutely. Combine that with the fact that another large percentage of the population is naive and has absolutely no ****ing clue what kind of horrible things humans are capable of doing to other humans and.... There goes a large percentage of the population.

We're already seeing it now in these riots... They're testing the waters to see what they can get away with... And that's just when some people get excited about a popular topic in the local news.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Moose-Knuckle]

No other time in recorded history have our species' numbers been this numerous. Our populations have only gone vertically straight up since the discovery of oil in the 1859. After that we had the Industrial Revolution which led to the internal combustion engine and agriculture petrochemicals (fertilizers / insecticides). Automated and mechanical farming implements, petrochemicals, and refrigeration all led to commercial and mass food production and the distribution network that allows us to sustain our current populations in First World nations.

Overland trucking is a critical infrastructure as is our interstate highway system and the complex system in place that brings in oil, refines it, and distributes it to keep all those trucks on the road. The average American family sits down at their dinner table and enjoys a meal who's components where trucked into their local grocer from a distribution center 1500 miles away.

This is a pic of the bread aisle at my local Wal-Mart after a winter storm hit our area. They sell out of bread, lunch meat, frozen pizzas, TV dinners, boxed cereals, milk, etc. everytime there is a winter storm here which usually last up to three or four days. Some years we get multiple winter storms through out the season.



The vast majority of American households only have enough food in their pantry/fridge for about one week. That includes eating out several times and or having a "pizza night". As mentioned above by someone grocery stores have on hand three days worth of food during NORMAL conditions. This is beefed up for events like Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Different populations in various locals will act differently given the particular circumstances affecting the region. This is why when a natural disaster hits small town USA in the heartland we don't see wide spread violence and looting like we did in places like NOLA after Katrina. YMMV.


Here is a truck attempting to deliver a load of live chickens that was hijacked and looted on the streets in Venezuela.




Many more videos on YouTube covering the food riots and food truck hijackings in Venezuela. The media here are not reporting on the mess down there, IMHO they don't want people here seeing how bad things will be when the next "market adjustment" hits our economy. I posted another thread about a mother's daily diary in her searc for food for her family, it was moved to GD. There are no more pet cats or dogs, the zoo animals have all been slaughtered for consumption as well.


This is a multi faceted subject matter, great posts so far in the thread. Really appreciate everyone's contributions I wished we had more like this in this particular sub-forum as we use to years ago.

[Averageman]

It's going to depend upon how much fuel and transportation is available, how quickly communities can recoup and reorganize their infrastructures and water and sewer services.
In a mass casualty situation I would guess as ugly as it sounds taking over a small number the sanitation service trucks might be required to move a great number of bodies. Moving the bodies to the land fill and then putting them in dumpsters and covering them with lime and a lid might hold back any short term water contamination effects. Think of it as a compost pile for bodies, you want to decompose them in a contained and accelerated manner.

[2cobber]

Combine that with the fact that another large percentage of the population is naive and has absolutely no ****ing clue what kind of horrible things humans are capable of doing to other humans and.... There goes a large percentage of the population.

I see you've visited my neighborhood. Audis and Mercedes with Hillary or Bernie stickers abound. I would be amazed if they're prepared for a 24 hour disruption, let alone the long-term.