China trade war and NoRK nukes connectedness

[Business_Casual]

Theory:

The visit of Xi to Mar-a-lago was for the US to drop the demand for them to persuade Kim to abandon nukes and allow Western investment.

Xi communicates the demands to Kim who initially agrees. Kim reneges (much of the narrative is skipped here). US raises spectre of China tariffs if Kim fails to follow through. China balks and/or feels it would “lose face” by continued compliance. Trade war ensues. Pompeo travels to North Korea, issues further demands.

Is Trump in Europe breaking the news that NATO is no longer needed and our focus will shift to the Far East?

That brings us to today. Thoughts? Predictions?

[duece71]

The trade war will benefit the US in the long run, China will be hurt by it. Trump realizes that NATO doesn’t need so much American involvement (or money) and I hope will decrease our presence. It’s time for Europe to start taking care of itself and be more self reliant. Europe also needs to get more involved with the ME/Syrian war and deal with the migration problem.

[Doc Safari]

Theory:

The visit of Xi to Mar-a-lago was for the US to drop the demand for them to persuade Kim to abandon nukes and allow Western investment.

Xi communicates the demands to Kim who initially agrees. Kim reneges (much of the narrative is skipped here). US raises spectre of China tariffs if Kim fails to follow through. China balks and/or feels it would “lose face” by continued compliance. Trade war ensues. Pompeo travels to North Korea, issues further demands.

Is Trump in Europe breaking the news that NATO is no longer needed and our focus will shift to the Far East?

That brings us to today. Thoughts? Predictions?

Some good analysis there. I hadn't thought of that, but it looks like Trump is viewing Russia as less of a threat than China (which it is). The whole NATO controversy does two things: it motivates the Europeans to pony up if they want to keep enjoying the Pax Americana, and it sends China the subtle message that we can always move forces to the Pacific if NATO is no longer our pet project.

I can't link to any specific articles because the discussion is ongoing and I'd have to dig them up again. Suffice it to say some analysts believe we are already at war with China and the tariffs are just the gentlemen's declaration of hostilities before the real shooting war begins. Also, if we are to have a shooting war with China, it'd be real sweet if we could stop them from stealing our high technology: hence the Economic Cold War.

[RetroRevolver77]

I hate to say it but Western Europe has already committed suicide with their migrants. We probably aren't far behind having some 40 million illegals living inside our borders. Ironically if Western Civilization, i.e. Christian European centrist society- is to survive, it will be in Eastern Europe.

[The_War_Wagon]

Anything that makes Schmuckles the Clown, squeek like a rubber chicken, is fine by me. MAGA!

[26 Inf]

I hate to say it but Western Europe has already committed suicide with their migrants. We probably aren't far behind having some 40 million illegals living inside our borders. Ironically if Western Civilization, i.e. Christian European centrist society- is to survive, it will be in Eastern Europe.

7n6 - reporting for duty as your Jiminy Cricket (hand salute, ready, two)

Where are you getting your stats? Because this is what I come up with:

Studies have shown that 40 million foreign born residents live in the US. Of that population, 11.7 million are undocumented. https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/...ll_pe_2009.pdf

According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the countries of origin for the largest numbers of illegal immigrants are as follows (figures from 2014):

Attachment 52809

The Urban Institute also estimates that between 65,000 and 75,000 Canadians currently live illegally in the United States (2008). http://www.wweek.com/portland/articl...l-eh-lien.html

Western Civilization, i.e. Christian European centrist society- is to survive, it will be in Eastern Europe.

Unless you are not counting Catholics as Christians all is not lost. What is probably even more illuminating is this:

Hispanic Identity Fades Across Generations as Immigrant Connections Fall Away

More than 18% of Americans identify as Hispanic or Latino, the nation’s second largest racial or ethnic group. But two trends – a long-standing high intermarriage rate and a decade of declining Latin American immigration – are distancing some Americans with Hispanic ancestry from the life experiences of earlier generations, reducing the likelihood they call themselves Hispanic or Latino.

Among the estimated 42.7 million U.S. adults with Hispanic ancestry in 2015, nine-in-ten (89%), or about 37.8 million, self-identify as Hispanic or Latino. But another 5 million (11%) do not consider themselves Hispanic or Latino, according to Pew Research Center estimates. The closer they are to their immigrant roots, the more likely Americans with Hispanic ancestry are to identify as Hispanic.

The closer they are to their immigrant roots, the more likely Americans with Hispanic ancestry are to identify as Hispanic. Nearly all immigrant adults from Latin America or Spain (97%) say they are Hispanic. Similarly, second-generation adults with Hispanic ancestry (the U.S.-born children of at least one immigrant parent) have nearly as high a Hispanic self-identification rate (92%), according to Pew Research Center estimates.

By the third generation – a group made up of the U.S.-born children of U.S.-born parents and immigrant grandparents – the share that self-identifies as Hispanic falls to 77%. And by the fourth or higher generation (U.S.-born children of U.S.-born parents and U.S.-born grandparents, or even more distant relatives), just half of U.S. adults with Hispanic ancestry say they are Hispanic.

Declining immigration, high intermarriage rates

Immigration from Latin America played a central role in the U.S. Hispanic population’s growth and its identity during the 1980s and 1990s. But by the 2000s, U.S. births overtook the arrival of new immigrants as the main driver of Hispanic population dynamics. And the Great Recession, coupled with many other factors, significantly slowed the flow of new immigrants into the country, especially from Mexico.

As a result, the U.S. Hispanic population is still growing, but at a rate nearly half of what it was over a decade ago as fewer immigrants arrive in the U.S. and the fertility rate among Hispanic women has declined.

In 2015, 25.1% of Latino newlyweds married a non-Latino spouse and 18.3% of all married Latinos were intermarried; in 1980, 26.4% of Latino newlyweds intermarried and 18.1% of all married Latinos had a non-Latino spouse, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data.

In both 1980 and 2015, Latino intermarried rates were higher than those for blacks or whites.

As a result of high intermarriage rates, some of today’s Latinos have parents or grandparents of mixed heritage, with that share higher among later generations. According to the surveys, 18% of immigrants say that they have a non-Latino parent or grandparent in their family, a share that rises to 29% among the second generation and 65% among the third or higher generation, according to the Pew Research Center survey of self-identified Latino adults.

These trends also have implications for the future of Hispanic identity in the U.S. Lower immigration levels than in the past and continued high intermarriage rates may combine to produce a growing number of U.S. adults with Hispanic ancestors who may not identify as Hispanic or Latino.

AND HERE, MY FRIENDS, IS THE BOMBSHELL:

And even among those who do self-identify as Hispanic or Latino, those in the second and third or higher generations may see their identity as more tied to the U.S. than to the origins of their parents, a pattern observed in many previous5 Pew Research Center Latino surveys.

The survey is worth a read: http://www.pewhispanic.org/2017/12/2...ons-fall-away/

My take: We are going to end up as a light tannish, largely Christian population, versus the pasty white, largely Christian population of a a century or so ago.

So, don fret too much.

We still don't need open borders though

[SteyrAUG]

My take: We are going to end up as a light tannish, largely Christian population, versus the pasty white, largely Christian population of a a century or so ago.

So, don fret too much.

Not that I'm fretting over the racial identity of this country, but why isn't it a problem now but it's racial genocide when "pasty white" folks have done the same in other countries in the past?

Hell even if "pasty white" folks change the economic identity of a neighborhood by legitimate investment and improvement it's called gentrification and it's explained as a type of "land theft." I don't buy into the racial argument, but I also don't accept the double standard. If we have to protect minority races and interests then we have to do it for everyone if we are going to honestly discuss equality in any way that is remotely meaningful.

[soulezoo]

Not that I'm fretting over the racial identity of this country, but why isn't it a problem now but it's racial genocide when "pasty white" folks have done the same in other countries in the past?

Hell even if "pasty white" folks change the economic identity of a neighborhood by legitimate investment and improvement it's called gentrification and it's explained as a type of "land theft." I don't buy into the racial argument, but I also don't accept the double standard. If we have to protect minority races and interests then we have to do it for everyone if we are going to honestly discuss equality in any way that is remotely meaningful.

^^^^like

[26 Inf]

Not that I'm fretting over the racial identity of this country, but why isn't it a problem now but it's racial genocide when "pasty white" folks have done the same in other countries in the past?

Hell even if "pasty white" folks change the economic identity of a neighborhood by legitimate investment and improvement it's called gentrification and it's explained as a type of "land theft." I don't buy into the racial argument, but I also don't accept the double standard. If we have to protect minority races and interests then we have to do it for everyone if we are going to honestly discuss equality in any way that is remotely meaningful.

You know, I didn't mean this to morph into city planning, but........most of the complaints regarding gentrification are because the improvements to the area are generally not affordable to the current residents of the area. As a result over time, sometimes quickly, the original classes of the area are pushed out and the character of the area changes, often losing the allure that begot the initial investment.

Kind of like Floridians talking about us 'Fvcking Northerners.'

What is more alarming is the tendency of everyone, regardless of affiliation, to go 'oh yeah, what about.....' recording a wrong to their 'side' in regards to even the most benign statements.

For instance, to you post I COULD reply that maybe it is because for most of the first 3/4 of the 20th Century, minorities were unable to buy homes or rent apartments in white neighborhoods. As St. Clair Drake and Horace Cayton noted in their book Black Metropolis: A Study of Negro Life in a Northern City this was in essence 'the invisible barbed-wire fence of restrictive covenants.'

All that would accomplish, is to motivate you to come up with another example. Let's not do that. I was merely refuting 7n6's 40,000,000 illegals most sane folks agree it is around 12,000,000 illegals.

Man, no wonder nothing gets done about anything.

[Moose-Knuckle]

7n6 - reporting for duty as your Jiminy Cricket (hand salute, ready, two)

Where are you getting your stats? Because this is what I come up with:

Studies have shown that 40 million foreign born residents live in the US. Of that population, 11.7 million are undocumented. https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/...ll_pe_2009.pdf

According to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the countries of origin for the largest numbers of illegal immigrants are as follows (figures from 2014):

Attachment 52809

The Urban Institute also estimates that between 65,000 and 75,000 Canadians currently live illegally in the United States (2008). http://www.wweek.com/portland/articl...l-eh-lien.html

Western Civilization, i.e. Christian European centrist society- is to survive, it will be in Eastern Europe.

Unless you are not counting Catholics as Christians all is not lost. What is probably even more illuminating is this:

Hispanic Identity Fades Across Generations as Immigrant Connections Fall Away

More than 18% of Americans identify as Hispanic or Latino, the nation’s second largest racial or ethnic group. But two trends – a long-standing high intermarriage rate and a decade of declining Latin American immigration – are distancing some Americans with Hispanic ancestry from the life experiences of earlier generations, reducing the likelihood they call themselves Hispanic or Latino.

Among the estimated 42.7 million U.S. adults with Hispanic ancestry in 2015, nine-in-ten (89%), or about 37.8 million, self-identify as Hispanic or Latino. But another 5 million (11%) do not consider themselves Hispanic or Latino, according to Pew Research Center estimates. The closer they are to their immigrant roots, the more likely Americans with Hispanic ancestry are to identify as Hispanic.

The closer they are to their immigrant roots, the more likely Americans with Hispanic ancestry are to identify as Hispanic. Nearly all immigrant adults from Latin America or Spain (97%) say they are Hispanic. Similarly, second-generation adults with Hispanic ancestry (the U.S.-born children of at least one immigrant parent) have nearly as high a Hispanic self-identification rate (92%), according to Pew Research Center estimates.

By the third generation – a group made up of the U.S.-born children of U.S.-born parents and immigrant grandparents – the share that self-identifies as Hispanic falls to 77%. And by the fourth or higher generation (U.S.-born children of U.S.-born parents and U.S.-born grandparents, or even more distant relatives), just half of U.S. adults with Hispanic ancestry say they are Hispanic.

Declining immigration, high intermarriage rates

Immigration from Latin America played a central role in the U.S. Hispanic population’s growth and its identity during the 1980s and 1990s. But by the 2000s, U.S. births overtook the arrival of new immigrants as the main driver of Hispanic population dynamics. And the Great Recession, coupled with many other factors, significantly slowed the flow of new immigrants into the country, especially from Mexico.

As a result, the U.S. Hispanic population is still growing, but at a rate nearly half of what it was over a decade ago as fewer immigrants arrive in the U.S. and the fertility rate among Hispanic women has declined.

In 2015, 25.1% of Latino newlyweds married a non-Latino spouse and 18.3% of all married Latinos were intermarried; in 1980, 26.4% of Latino newlyweds intermarried and 18.1% of all married Latinos had a non-Latino spouse, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data.

In both 1980 and 2015, Latino intermarried rates were higher than those for blacks or whites.

As a result of high intermarriage rates, some of today’s Latinos have parents or grandparents of mixed heritage, with that share higher among later generations. According to the surveys, 18% of immigrants say that they have a non-Latino parent or grandparent in their family, a share that rises to 29% among the second generation and 65% among the third or higher generation, according to the Pew Research Center survey of self-identified Latino adults.

These trends also have implications for the future of Hispanic identity in the U.S. Lower immigration levels than in the past and continued high intermarriage rates may combine to produce a growing number of U.S. adults with Hispanic ancestors who may not identify as Hispanic or Latino.

AND HERE, MY FRIENDS, IS THE BOMBSHELL:

And even among those who do self-identify as Hispanic or Latino, those in the second and third or higher generations may see their identity as more tied to the U.S. than to the origins of their parents, a pattern observed in many previous5 Pew Research Center Latino surveys.

The survey is worth a read: http://www.pewhispanic.org/2017/12/2...ons-fall-away/

My take: We are going to end up as a light tannish, largely Christian population, versus the pasty white, largely Christian population of a a century or so ago.

So, don fret too much.

We still don't need open borders though

Well the numbers of actual illegal aliens in the country has been skewed for decades so pardon me if I don't believe the .gov source you provided.

Fact is NO ONE knows exactly how many "undocumented migrants" there are here since they are not . . . wait for it . . . documented.