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Thread: DHS Says be Ready for 6 MONTHS with No Power, Medical, Fuel, Cash, Food, Water ETC...

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eurodriver View Post
    If I lost power for 6 months I would pray it was winter.
    Yea, it kinda depends on where you live! No AC in Phoenix is a bigger deal in July than it is in January.
    "When a strong man, fully armed, guards his own house, his possessions are safe." Luke 11:21

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Esq. View Post
    Doesn't really matter WHO takes it down in terms of the effect- which is what the report is about- what people need to expect if it DOES go down.
    Bingo


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  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jsp10477 View Post
    Iíll preface this post with the fact that I am not a college educated electrical engineer. I base my opinion on experience from years as an electrical contractor for one of the largest energy companies in the southeast. Iíve worked overhead and underground primary distribution, overhead and underground secondary services, metering, etc. My opinions are mine and I do not in any way speak for the company that employs me or any of the companies we have contracts with.

    EMPís fry delicate circuitry since it cannot bleed off surges. Consumer products, phones, lap tops, radios, TV sets, home medical devices and appliances will be what is most affected. Like I stated earlier, as long as copper and aluminum conduct electricity, distribution and transmission conductors wouldnít need replaced.

    https://www.bluestemelectric.com/sit...20a%20Pole.jpg

    Note that there are arrestors to bleed off surges. Everything is tied back to main line neutrals and earth grounds.

    Hereís a quick look at substation arrestors.
    https://youtu.be/DW3pEv--5w8

    These types of protections are integrated all throughout our grid.

    Transformers are sealed metal housings that are directly tied to earth grounds and system neutrals. The windings inside are insulated from the housing/tank and submerged in non conductive oil. This is the case for overhead, underground, network, and substation transformers.

    Direct physical attacks can shut down an entire substation or transmission circuit. The thing is, power companies guard their stations when terror alerts are elevated. If one actually went down due to an attack, you can bet the rest will have an armed presence. Transmission right of ways are maintained and could be patrolled. Corporate security isnít just for escorting terminated employees off the premises. Why is the DOE an armed gov agency? It isnít just for competing in sniper comps. Back on track, so when a station or circuit is damaged, itís repaired and switched back into service.

    Natural disasters could pose a greater threat than EMP due to actually destroying lines and equipment. Even so, natural disasters are small relative to the size of the country. I donít see a nation wide wildfire, hurricane, earthquake, tornado, or ice storm. The Yellowstone caldera would be a different beast though.

    So letís see, hackers have broken into financial institutes, intel agencies, political parties, etc but no one has shut down a generation plant? Wonder why?

    Are the ďexpertsĒ more credible than I? Yes. As stated above, I have no credentials. Is there money to be made buy selling stories of calamities that drum up fear in people? Yes. Would our government fund research that shows our grid is in danger then use said research as a reason to establish regulating authority over the nations electric grid? Lol, we all know the answer.

    If the gov wants to help in an emergency, do what theyíre doing now, provide funds, waive hours of service laws, and let the power companies handle their systems.

    Iíll read the other thread as time allows. Lots of family gatherings going on for the Christmas holiday.
    Thank you!

    I always love seeing these "the lights are off for 5 decade threads". I'm glad someone here explains things in a non panic stricken response. I would worry more about Yellowstone going off than a country wide blackout. Or even a local blackout for any length of time. And I live within 150 miles of Yellowstone.

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  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by n4aof View Post
    Oh my God! This thread instantly went down that rabbit hole.

    Six months for a grid down situation is ridiculous:

    For a cyber failure, the grid would be back up inside 48 hrs (although it might be down again in another 24; lather, rinse and repeat).

    For a mechanical failure, a grid down situation will actually be local, although a brief cascade failure could give us a few hours of widespread blackout. How long it takes to repair a mechanical failure depends on the extent and the cause, but we are talking about days or weeks, not months.

    For a true EMP, again the failure will be local -- the ONLY portable source of an EMP is a nuclear device. The truck mounted "EMP Generators" that are so popular in movies are strictly an invention of Hollywood. If someone sets off a nuclear bomb, the EMP will be the least of the concerns in the area.

    The one potential cause of a massive long-term grid-down condition would be an enormous Coronal Mass Ejection (a giant "Solar Flare"). The last time a massive CME intersected the earth was in 1859 (the Carrington Event). When it happens again (yes, I said "when" not "if") depending on the level of the CME encountering the earth we could be looking at a worldwide grid down condition that would be essentially non-repairable. T-E-O-T-W-A-W-K-I !
    Man has had the taste and knowledge of electricity for well over a decade now. We will never revert back to not having it permanently.

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  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by ubet View Post
    Thank you!

    I always love seeing these "the lights are off for 5 decade threads". I'm glad someone here explains things in a non panic stricken response. I would worry more about Yellowstone going off than a country wide blackout. Or even a local blackout for any length of time. And I live within 150 miles of Yellowstone.
    Actually, both sides of the "five decades" debate are correct -- depending on the assumptions about the level of the solar storm causing the failure.

    NO terrestrial event is going to cause a nationwide or global grid failure -- at least nothing short of a full-scale global thermonuclear war, in which case the grid failure won't be just due to the EMP effect.

    Once you rule out the imaginary EMP Generators that exist only in Hollywood, and GTW, you are left with the one thing that could take down the global grid: a "Solar Storm" or Coronal Mass Ejection. The last major CME to hit the Earth was in September 1859 (usually referred to as the Carrington Event). Scientists believe that the solar storm of 1859 was one of, but not the largest such solar storms to ever hit the Earth. There was a similar level Coronal Mass Ejection in July 2012 but that one completely missed the Earth because the Earth's position in its orbit did not match the path of the solar storm.

    Bottom line: the government warning to be ready for "six months" appears to be a median figure somewhere between the best case (a few seconds of power outage that happens frequently) and the worst case (TEOTWAWKI)


    There is no way to predict when another such CME will occur or if it will or won't impact the Earth. A CME equal to the 1859 event striking the Earth would certainly take down the grid. How long the grid would stay down is subject to a lot of debate even among 'experts'. A small difference in the amount of energy released and/or a small difference in how solidly the solar flare hits the Earth could make a vast difference in the effect. If we assume a bit of luck on our part, we could be talking about nothing much worse than blowing every single fuse on every power line (you know, those same fuses that blow whenever a squirrel blows itself to hell by crossing one) as well as every solid state electronic device plugged in to an electrical outlet. No big deal beyond the fact that no utility company has enough replacement fuses and the companies that make the fuses wouldn't be able to make more until after the power was restored (Catch 22).

  6. #36
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    Few will bother to heed the (subtle) warning. ďConspiracyĒ.

    The outcome will be justice in some dark, dank way...


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  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by markm View Post
    People would go NUTS if they were unable to drool on their cell phones for one day... let alone weeks/months.
    More range time.

  8. #38
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    Fuses cost a few dollars, take a couple minutes to replace, and are kept in stock at store rooms by the hundreds if not thousands.

    People would be better off worrying about their personal health than any 6 month grid failure.

    ETA: If Iím wrong, when the lights come back on, Iíll admit it. Lol

    https://youtu.be/R5lQdJR4y1g

    I know this warrants the government taking control of the entire nations power grid.

    There have been multiple attacks on the grid. Costly but quickly repaired.

    Here you go. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.re...0M729K20140310


    This is the best part of the article:
    But in Washington, politicians must be seen to do something. So FERC has ordered NERC to produce yet another set of paperwork.

    In its order, FERC acknowledged "the number of facilities identified as critical will be relatively small". Many substations will not be deemed critical.
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    ďI prefer dangerous freedom over peaceful slavery.Ē Ė Thomas Jefferson.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by ubet View Post
    Man has had the taste and knowledge of electricity for well over a decade now. We will never revert back to not having it permanently.

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  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eurodriver View Post
    Thanks, meant a century. Insert face palm.

    In my defense, we have had electricity for well over a decade though. Lol

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