Quote Originally Posted by tb-av View Post
Will, I'm obviously not a med pro but a mile from home there is basically a test case going on that could sort of prove or dis-prove his theory on a small scale.

Look up Canterbury Rehab facility, ( richmond or henrico VA ). It accounts for now 50% of the deaths in all of VA. How long the situation will go on with respect to him saying it would have all been over in 4 weeks we don;t know yet.

Personally I don't trust anything that hits the Internet on 4/1 and especially if they talk like a Bond villain... but again that's not the science you are looking for.

But you might find some correlations in that rehab center. It's only 192 beds ( which I am not convinced all were filled ) with damn near the whole place infected and already 33 deaths. That's more than 2% by my math. I'm not totally clear what issues people have there but I think it's quite varied. I mean aside from Covid19.

Anyway, not sure if it gets reported in your area. Here's a local link. Others I've seen tell you figures for asymptomatic, residents, workers, etc.. Actually it's up to 35 dead now... running 2 to 4 a day now.

https://www.richmond.com/news/virgin...d16bab1cd.html

So if that is any sort of a model for a nationwide covid19fest.... I think I'll wait for the DVD.

I get what people are saying about short peak vs the longer flat curve but I haven't heard anyone say what might happen to the sharp peak if things turned out more deadly than expected. What if the peak became a square wave.

We have now two examples one in Washington and one in VA of what really happens in a contained environment and neither have been good. NewYork is sort of a similar situation imo.

Again, I'm just sitting in the bleachers but I would expect the pros will certainly look at these two places as some sort of data point. Some sort of "if we had" or "here's what could happen".

Maybe it's because they were all compromised in some manner but not all facilities like that are seeing similar results. Maybe it had to do with the care workers. So then figure a single mother of two. she gets a bad case, now two orphans... it just seems like the 'get it over with" method would put a massive strain on our health care system to the point it would be too risky as a nation. It's bad enough now.
Currently NC continues to trend up; 3,540 positives, 386 hospitalized, 64 deaths. We're averaging two additional deaths per day above the previous day. My institution has 41 admits, and has discharged 59. This is manageable, for us. Given our census and capacity and the numbers, had we not instituted social distancing/etc., we'd be looking at (given the math) being outstripped of capacity by next week. As it is we're supposed to peak April 24-May 4. On the current track, we *should* be OK.

There are a few superbugs that could see it plateau (i.e., "square wave"), and that would be bad. But this one, you either get better pretty quickly, or worse pretty quickly, so we won't see a plateau.