(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

[sandsunsurf]

So would Darwin. We have worked for centuries to ensure that effects of natural selection, survival of the fittest, and evolution of the human race is halted or reversed. What do we expect to happen? We should be a species of supermen and women given our agricultural and medical knowledge - instead we seem to be backsliding.

Andy

Agreed. As a species, we spend more energy to protect the weak and dying than any other. Some will say that’s what makes us human, but it can be reasonably argued that it makes the entire herd of humans weaker and ripe for a much more severe pandemic.

The fittest no longer survive and procreate; they wait and have fewer or no offspring.

[jsbhike]

Stalin and Mao would be proud of that line of thinking.

That makes as much sense as when someone told me I would have enjoyed living in Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union because I was in favor of a no infringement 2nd Amendment.

[ramairthree]

“FromMyColdDeadHand. People are used to complete solutions to problems in one 60 min episode. We learn on math problems where we use all the numbers we are given, and they are solvable.

That ain't life. We all know that. Big Data doesn't solve that, AI can't figure it out, and experts know so much that they have a hard time giving useful guidance because they are overwhelmed by the complexity.”



You have nailed why trying to make a model based on pure numbers and data and Newtonian trajectories in a step wise logical problem is an issue.

This is an overlapping circles of conditional probability ven diagram based on changing data and pattern recognition with quantum probability clouds.



“My company does it all the time, come to a decision point and if there is any way to do it, we punt until we get more data, which always leads to needing more data.

That is why the major failing in my MBA program was that you can data analyze your way out of anything. BRzzzt, wrong answer. You have to make a decision based on less data you want, with 30% of the data either wrong or skewed, and 40% missing. That is how leaders and winners are made. You make decisions based on what you got, and the good ones have a sixth-sense for parsing out everything and seeing the answer- when most other people just see fog.

I have to say that Trump is the master at that. He makes decisions. Put something in front of him, or put him in front of something, and he King Solomon the shit out of it.”

[ramairthree]

Anyone know if Stephen King's "The Stand" is streaming anywhere? I don't really want to buy a DVD package (and even then they aren't shipping for a couple weeks).

Come on over.

I’ve got it on DVD.

I’ll toss you the remote after coughing on it and hand you the bowl of popcorn after rubbing my runny nose.

There are dozens of bottles of bourbon, Kentucky, Tennessee, rye, Irish, and scotches to keep alcohol levels unfriendly to viruses.

[WillBrink]

Data points of interest via the DOJ site. What the association, if any, to the current event is unknown, but that will send the conspiracy types into fits of "see!" but also hard to blame them:

Harvard University Professor and Two Chinese Nationals Charged in Three Separate China Related Cases

The Department of Justice announced today that the Chair of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department and two Chinese nationals have been charged in connection with aiding the People’s Republic of China.

Dr. Charles Lieber, 60, Chair of the Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology at Harvard University, was arrested this morning and charged by criminal complaint with one count of making a materially false, fictitious and fraudulent statement. Lieber will appear this afternoon before Magistrate Judge Marianne B. Bowler in federal court in Boston, Massachusetts.

Yanqing Ye, 29, a Chinese national, was charged in an indictment today with one count each of visa fraud, making false statements, acting as an agent of a foreign government and conspiracy. Ye is currently in China.

Zaosong Zheng, 30, a Chinese national, was arrested on Dec. 10, 2019, at Boston’s Logan International Airport and charged by criminal complaint with attempting to smuggle 21 vials of biological research to China. On Jan. 21, 2020, Zheng was indicted on one count of smuggling goods from the United States and one count of making false, fictitious or fraudulent statements. He has been detained since Dec. 30, 2019.

Cont:

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/harva...-china-related

[Todd.K]

So would Darwin.

Why do you think letting the elderly die would put any pressure on which younger people reproduce?

[ABNAK]

Come on over.

I’ve got it on DVD.

I’ll toss you the remote after coughing on it and hand you the bowl of popcorn after rubbing my runny nose. You're all heart.

There are dozens of bottles of bourbon, Kentucky, Tennessee, rye, Irish, and scotches to keep alcohol levels unfriendly to viruses.

My good friend who is a retired SF SGM has a wife who has multiple myeloma. Her immune system is extremely fragile. He's playing the isolation/quarantine game pretty well for her sake. I called him yesterday to see if he needed anything. He wanted a case of beer. Okay, no problem. I took it over to his shop and left it outside. He came out and from a distance said "On the back of that trailer is a jar of moonshine you can have. I got it from some guy out in Stewart County. You can mix a little aloe with it and make hand sanitizer". I laughed and said "Are you serious? Hand sanitizer?" He got my drift and said "Well, you can use some of it to sterilize your insides too!"

Now making hand sanitizer isn't a bad idea, especially since you still can't find it anywhere. I'm sure the alcohol % is high enough, as this isn't the commercial moonshine you see in liquor stores. It's something Cleetus cooked up out in the sticks.

Still not sure what I'm gonna do with it.

[ramairthree]

You keep dragging out the extreme examples. I'm sure they exist.

But there's also the cases of active folks in their 60s with no serious co-morbidities who died. And some in their 50s.

So the guy with hypertension managed with a minimal dose of lisonopril did not die of hypertension. He died because the virus clogged his lungs, then filled it full of holes.

COD should not be hypertension, or even pneumonia. It was C-19 as the root cause.

Maybe you live in a hellhole where all you see is the extreme cases. Speculation on background (EMT, nurse, Dr) deleted, not germain.

Cause the example I gave above in our county was driven to the hospital. After getting exposed at a church service.

I do understand the disease hits the weak very hard. But moderately healthy is also getting hit. And your perspective may change when you hit 50 or 60s and life kicks in with some "comorbidities". I know multiple marathon runners with CAD and stents. More fit folks with hypertension and diabetes or at least pre.

I do question the economic impact, but also think your numbers may be a bit low if nothing was done. Maybe 1-2M US deaths, or even 600k might be acceptable to some.

This talk is like after folks evac for a hurricane, then few died. If they had stayed, more would have died. And the thing they are complaining about (looting, etc) would have still occurred whether the evac'd or not.

And how do you come by the numbers you think?

What data, variables, modules, and historical trends did you use?

The “extreme” examples I use make up a majority of population center critical care time ER visits and ICU admissions. As well as repeat admissions. The very elderly, very unhealthy, etc. Data is available at least for Medicaid/Medicare billing and reimbursement amounts publically, although always a few years behind. Trauma, end stage renal disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, peripheral vascular disease, obesity, diabetes, strokes, have trends with age, but absolutely are not randomly distributed among the population especially in younger cohorts.

People with “no medical problems” that show up with something serious are routinely found to have medical problems. And even among relatively younger, healthy populations, with no medical problems, that end up shipped home early from deployments - reveal a significant incidence of unknown medical issues that were shimmering beneath the surface and had not manifested. There is a base rate of 60 somethings that show up to ERs every day with nothing but hypertension, having trouble breathing, in the absence of COVID. Sometimes requiring non invasive and sometimes invasive ventilation for their new onset heart failure. This happens every day. With or without concurrent viral respiratory infections. Yes, there can be a myocarditis component to COVID. There is also a baseline viral myocarditis rate from Several other viruses, drugs, vaccinations, etc.

Prior to this virus, viral myocarditis is likely the third leading cause of sudden cardiac death in competitive athletes. Japanese, European, and US military studies in young healthy men with new heart issues with no coronary artery disease in ranges from 0.007 to 0.1 %.


This virus has been treated like catching it is a death sentence and is the coming of some major threat that is going to nearly wipe out mankind.

The response to it has been like grabbing a semi auto 12 gauge with a 25 round drum of buckshot to take out some mice in the barn. There are still going to be mice in the barn when you get done, and the damage to the barn if far worse and more long lasting than the mice would have ever done.

[ramairthree]

Stalin and Mao would be proud of that line of thinking.

You confuse predicting the impact of an absolute worse case scenario infectious event - what hit could society survive - with wanting it to happen.

You think military planning worst case scenarios for operations means the planners want those losses?

You thin the guys planning for mass casualty WND CONUS events want those things to happen?

You should realize there are people who have spent a decade, or decades, of their lives responsible for the planning and response to Rad, Chem, and Bio CONUS threats.

A joke used to be-
The dudes planning Dresden may have gone to the dark side, but planning how to be Dresden does not mean you have.

[jsbhike]

My good friend who is a retired SF SGM has a wife who has multiple myeloma. Her immune system is extremely fragile. He's playing the isolation/quarantine game pretty well for her sake. I called him yesterday to see if he needed anything. He wanted a case of beer. Okay, no problem. I took it over to his shop and left it outside. He came out and from a distance said "On the back of that trailer is a jar of moonshine you can have. I got it from some guy out in Stewart County. You can mix a little aloe with it and make hand sanitizer". I laughed and said "Are you serious? Hand sanitizer?" He got my drift and said "Well, you can use some of it to sterilize your insides too!"

Now making hand sanitizer isn't a bad idea, especially since you still can't find it anywhere. I'm sure the alcohol % is high enough, as this isn't the commercial moonshine you see in liquor stores. It's something Cleetus cooked up out in the sticks.

Still not sure what I'm gonna do with it.

You can (or at least could) buy 190 proof/95% alcohol in Tennessee which is about as high a percentage of ethanol as is possible.