(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

[ramairthree]

Sure, those are easy numbers. The far less easy ones are the ones with the underlying diseases like stage 1 kidney, or controlled diabetes that are also getting gut-punched and killed with this thing.

The population of which you speak, those are no brainers. This is the population I'm talking about though. but this is the same group that are lumped in the rest with people with "underlying medical problems."

Yes, I get that. If you look at the small studies coming out from individual intensivists and ICUs, tenth patients here, a dozen there, etc. things still look like the numbers and the odds are in their favor.

But punches are getting taken by COPD and CHF patients, presenting in their normal fashion, who “might” be positive, but with no instant test,
Their care with standard nebulizers and non invasive ventilation is being delayed, perseverated over, etc. and they end up doing worse.

There is no good, clear cut answer.

Keep in mind, there is a baseline rate of death, complication, surprises from other infectious diseases, etc. going on every day in America that has not been fanned to panic.

[ABNAK]

This virus has been treated like catching it is a death sentence and is the coming of some major threat that is going to nearly wipe out mankind.

Given my druthers I'd still rather not catch it. YMMV.





Former NFL lineman Tony Boselli had it. 47yo, good health (he's not one of those lard-ass ex-linemen), still landed him in the ICU. He doesn't look at it nonchalantly anymore.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...19/5115647002/

From the article: “The reality is the majority of people my age or younger who get it are probably going to be fine,” said Boselli. “But look at me, I was healthy with no issues at all and ended up in ICU. I guess you can play the odds and be OK."

His wife, the same age as he is, got it and wasn't even hospitalized. So there ya go. Just tells me I'd rather not roll the dice by getting it.

[ramairthree]

Why do you think letting the elderly die would put any pressure on which younger people reproduce?

So,
These are the issues with the simple concept of natural selection.
It does do a good job explaining how you get coyotes, subspecies of coyotes, wolves and their subspecies, African Hunting dogs, jackals, and genetically distinct populations of humans all with the same number of chromosome pairs, all able to breed together if they do so, but with regional differences suited to various niches.

It does not put pressure on developing a super species.

For example, a human with an IQ a standard deviation below the mean who goes through puberty at twelve and becomes a big, fast, strong guy who has 17 kids with nine different women of similar type of before doing something stupid getting killed in his 20s or dying as a big flabby disease ridden wreck with a ton of medical problems in his 30s is very genetically successful in terms of passing on his genes. And if those nine women become diabetic, heart failure dialysis patients with morbid obesity before they get out of their 40s they’re done being fertile anyway.

The human with an IQ three standard dictations above the mean who gets married in his late 20s after being a triathlon running single seat jet fighter pilot and getting his Ph.D. In materials science on top of his BSEE, has two kids with his MD, Ph.D. Champion former women’s soccer playing wife in their 30s, who go on to develop ground breaking and cutting edge devices with military and medical applications, and die in their 90s when the pontoon boat off the shore of their lakeside mansion sinks-
They have been far less genetically successful despite being far more intelligent, fit, healthy, socially productive, and contributing to the advancement of human science and knowledge.

We tie up roughly a quarter of the annual budget, about a trillion a year, on the former portion of the population. And none on the later. But they will have had offspring before any widespread selective process.

[ramairthree]

Given my druthers I'd still rather not catch it. YMMV.

You’re going to come into contact with it sooner or later.

It’s not like it’s going to disappear off the face of the earth after a few months of panic and quarantine.

I know a 99.9th percentile fit, health airborne ranger green beret combat diver with zero underlying medical issues that died from the flu. I know a guy in similar condition who almost died from myocarditis after a vaccination. I know a guy that can’t get shots because he almost died from Guillain Barre syndrome after a vaccination. These outliers have not had the media attention and panic spread. Dozens of other things could have been fanned into full retard.





Former NFL lineman Tony Boselli had it. 47yo, good health (he's not one of those lard-ass ex-linemen), still landed him in the ICU. He doesn't look at it nonchalantly anymore.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...19/5115647002/

From the article: “The reality is the majority of people my age or younger who get it are probably going to be fine,” said Boselli. “But look at me, I was healthy with no issues at all and ended up in ICU. I guess you can play the odds and be OK."

His wife, the same age as he is, got it and wasn't even hospitalized. So there ya go. Just tells me I'd rather not roll the dice by getting it.

Again, thousands of people die each year just from taking a common medication tons of other people have taken.

You are more likely to die in a car accident than from this.

[Todd.K]

This virus has been treated like catching it is a death sentence and is the coming of some major threat that is going to nearly wipe out mankind.

When we see the Captain of a warship filled with healthy 20-40 yearolds panic.... We definitely need some sober perspective.

[Arik]

And how do you come by the numbers you think?

What data, variables, modules, and historical trends did you use?

The “extreme” examples I use make up a majority of population center critical care time ER visits and ICU admissions. As well as repeat admissions. The very elderly, very unhealthy, etc. Data is available at least for Medicaid/Medicare billing and reimbursement amounts publically, although always a few years behind. Trauma, end stage renal disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, peripheral vascular disease, obesity, diabetes, strokes, have trends with age, but absolutely are not randomly distributed among the population especially in younger cohorts.

People with “no medical problems” that show up with something serious are routinely found to have medical problems. And even among relatively younger, healthy populations, with no medical problems, that end up shipped home early from deployments - reveal a significant incidence of unknown medical issues that were shimmering beneath the surface and had not manifested. There is a base rate of 60 somethings that show up to ERs every day with nothing but hypertension, having trouble breathing, in the absence of COVID. Sometimes requiring non invasive and sometimes invasive ventilation for their new onset heart failure. This happens every day. With or without concurrent viral respiratory infections. Yes, there can be a myocarditis component to COVID. There is also a baseline viral myocarditis rate from Several other viruses, drugs, vaccinations, etc.

Prior to this virus, viral myocarditis is likely the third leading cause of sudden cardiac death in competitive athletes. Japanese, European, and US military studies in young healthy men with new heart issues with no coronary artery disease in ranges from 0.007 to 0.1 %.


This virus has been treated like catching it is a death sentence and is the coming of some major threat that is going to nearly wipe out mankind.

The response to it has been like grabbing a semi auto 12 gauge with a 25 round drum of buckshot to take out some mice in the barn. There are still going to be mice in the barn when you get done, and the damage to the barn if far worse and more long lasting than the mice would have ever done.

So if people with no medical problems turn out to have medical problems then it could only get worse since everyone who's healthy has a 50/50 possibility of "medical issues that were shimmering beneath the surface and had not manifested"

[chuckman]

ED RN, 54 with "mild asthma", dies. Anesthesia doc aged 47 no history in in ICU for 4 days.

I've seen it go both ways. Mild fever, thought it was allergies. Couldn't breathe, thought I was going to die.

This is acting like nothing we've seen.

[ABNAK]

ED RN, 54 with "mild asthma", dies. Anesthesia doc aged 47 no history in in ICU for 4 days.

I've seen it go both ways. Mild fever, thought it was allergies. Couldn't breathe, thought I was going to die.

This is acting like nothing we've seen.

Yeah it seems this stuff can be all over the board as far as who gets pummeled by it and who skates on through. Maybe the supposed severe and not-so-severe strains? I wonder if you got the lesser of the two if that would give immunity for the more severe one.

Seeing how the medical field is if you got this shit and recovered they'd beat you like a rented mule.....the assumption being "Hey, you can exclusively take care of COVID patients because you've already had it". The jury is still out on immunity for re-exposure.

[ABNAK]

Again, thousands of people die each year just from taking a common medication tons of other people have taken.

You are more likely to die in a car accident than from this.

Yes, what you state is correct.

I assume you are in the same general age group as myself (mid-50's). You led a pretty HOOAAHH career with a Ranger flavor, so no doubt had to be in top condition. But you're not a 30yo Ranger anymore. Surely you can't rule out that Father Time may have some "surprises" for you just below the surface like he has for many folks (actually most by that age have something either known or hidden.....that's why nobody lives forever). Hell, you even mentioned in previous posts about guys who had hidden little "gotchas" they didn't even realize until they were afflicted with something.



My concern with catching it stems from a couple of things:

1) I'm 54yo, not 24 or 34.

2) I've had high blood pressure since I was 21 and in the Army. Well controlled with meds, but the meds I'm on right now cause me concern (Lisinopril, which is an ACE inhibitor and it appears that doesn't play well with COVID-19. Trying as of now to get those meds changed to something else).

3) "Pre-diabetic". The beetus runs in my family, so not surpised. I exercise every day, cardio one day and weights the next, 7 days a week. I am convinced that is the only thing keeping me from being squarely in the diabetic range. How long I can stave it off is anyone's guess.

So I "check a few boxes" on the higher risk side, hence my wishes to not contract it. I don't smoke, so there's that.

[Business_Casual]

ED RN, 54 with "mild asthma", dies. Anesthesia doc aged 47 no history in in ICU for 4 days.

I've seen it go both ways. Mild fever, thought it was allergies. Couldn't breathe, thought I was going to die.

This is acting like nothing we've seen.

Is it possible there is a second virus? Theory - pure speculation - a natural CV was identified that has limited bad effects, which was then weaponized in the Wuhan lab. The real patient zero had both and that is why the varied responses. Shrug.