(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

[chuckman]

Will, I'm obviously not a med pro but a mile from home there is basically a test case going on that could sort of prove or dis-prove his theory on a small scale.

Look up Canterbury Rehab facility, ( richmond or henrico VA ). It accounts for now 50% of the deaths in all of VA. How long the situation will go on with respect to him saying it would have all been over in 4 weeks we don;t know yet.

Personally I don't trust anything that hits the Internet on 4/1 and especially if they talk like a Bond villain... but again that's not the science you are looking for.

But you might find some correlations in that rehab center. It's only 192 beds ( which I am not convinced all were filled ) with damn near the whole place infected and already 33 deaths. That's more than 2% by my math. I'm not totally clear what issues people have there but I think it's quite varied. I mean aside from Covid19.

Anyway, not sure if it gets reported in your area. Here's a local link. Others I've seen tell you figures for asymptomatic, residents, workers, etc.. Actually it's up to 35 dead now... running 2 to 4 a day now.

https://www.richmond.com/news/virgin...d16bab1cd.html

So if that is any sort of a model for a nationwide covid19fest.... I think I'll wait for the DVD.

I get what people are saying about short peak vs the longer flat curve but I haven't heard anyone say what might happen to the sharp peak if things turned out more deadly than expected. What if the peak became a square wave.

We have now two examples one in Washington and one in VA of what really happens in a contained environment and neither have been good. NewYork is sort of a similar situation imo.

Again, I'm just sitting in the bleachers but I would expect the pros will certainly look at these two places as some sort of data point. Some sort of "if we had" or "here's what could happen".

Maybe it's because they were all compromised in some manner but not all facilities like that are seeing similar results. Maybe it had to do with the care workers. So then figure a single mother of two. she gets a bad case, now two orphans... it just seems like the 'get it over with" method would put a massive strain on our health care system to the point it would be too risky as a nation. It's bad enough now.

Currently NC continues to trend up; 3,540 positives, 386 hospitalized, 64 deaths. We're averaging two additional deaths per day above the previous day. My institution has 41 admits, and has discharged 59. This is manageable, for us. Given our census and capacity and the numbers, had we not instituted social distancing/etc., we'd be looking at (given the math) being outstripped of capacity by next week. As it is we're supposed to peak April 24-May 4. On the current track, we *should* be OK.

There are a few superbugs that could see it plateau (i.e., "square wave"), and that would be bad. But this one, you either get better pretty quickly, or worse pretty quickly, so we won't see a plateau.

[lsllc]

Currently NC continues to trend up; 3,540 positives, 386 hospitalized, 64 deaths. We're averaging two additional deaths per day above the previous day. My institution has 41 admits, and has discharged 59. This is manageable, for us. Given our census and capacity and the numbers, had we not instituted social distancing/etc., we'd be looking at (given the math) being outstripped of capacity by next week. As it is we're supposed to peak April 24-May 4. On the current track, we *should* be OK.

There are a few superbugs that could see it plateau (i.e., "square wave"), and that would be bad. But this one, you either get better pretty quickly, or worse pretty quickly, so we won't see a plateau.

Our institution was quite busy but is somewhat slowing down to some degree. We aren’t out of the woods. We opened a specific unit for covid, but we don’t have enough critical care nurses and RTs. We’ve had CRNAs and others stepping up to fill the holes. We are ok for now since we are seeing a downward trend.


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[85cucvtom]

Our institution was quite busy but is somewhat slowing down to some degree. We aren’t out of the woods. We opened a specific unit for covid, but we don’t have enough critical care nurses and RTs. We’ve had CRNAs and others stepping up to fill the holes. We are ok for now since we are seeing a downward trend.


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If you don't mind me asking, what state are you in?

[WillBrink]

Clearly, we need a more efficient, robust, and rapid plan to test and detect viruses and maybe this event will drive that fact home as the prior events did not:

Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show

New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that travelers brought in the virus mainly from Europe, not Asia.

“The majority is clearly European,” said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who co-wrote a study awaiting peer review.

A separate team at N.Y.U. Grossman School of Medicine came to strikingly similar conclusions, despite studying a different group of cases. Both teams analyzed genomes from coronaviruses taken from New Yorkers starting in mid-March.

The research revealed a previously hidden spread of the virus that might have been detected if aggressive testing programs had been put in place.

Cont:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/s...e-genomes.html

[Warg]

Clearly, we need a more efficient, robust, and rapid plan to test and detect viruses and maybe this event will drive that fact home as the prior events did not:

Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show

New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that travelers brought in the virus mainly from Europe, not Asia.

“The majority is clearly European,” said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who co-wrote a study awaiting peer review.

A separate team at N.Y.U. Grossman School of Medicine came to strikingly similar conclusions, despite studying a different group of cases. Both teams analyzed genomes from coronaviruses taken from New Yorkers starting in mid-March.

The research revealed a previously hidden spread of the virus that might have been detected if aggressive testing programs had been put in place.

Cont:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/s...e-genomes.html

Thanks Will. A couple of points:

The majority was brought to NY via Europe, but still originated from China (China to Europe then NY). As one would expect, the majority of air travel from NY is to Europe. For example, the number international passengers this January at JFK alone was 2.5M with the majority to Europe. Data aren't readily available monthly in terms of the proportions, but last year 19.5 million passengers flew transatlantic vs. 3.8 million transpacific - again this is just JFK.

However, this is not the case in WA State where evidence indicates it came directly from China. It's amazing how quickly a virus can spread given how connected we are globally.

Edit to add: this thread disappeared for a bit and I'm no longer getting email notifications.

[WillBrink]

Thanks Will. A couple of points:

The majority was brought to NY via Europe, but still originated from China (China to Europe then NY). As one would expect, the majority of air travel from NY is to Europe. For example, the number international passengers this January at JFK alone was 2.5M with the majority to Europe. Data aren't readily available monthly in terms of the proportions, but last year 19.5 million passengers flew transatlantic vs. 3.8 million transpacific - again this is just JFK.

However, this is not the case in WA State where evidence indicates it came directly from China. It's amazing how quickly a virus can spread given how connected we are globally.

That's mentioned in the article yes. real take away for me, is that exposes the need for a more efficient, robust, and rapid plan to test and detect viruses and the world now way too small to continue as we are.

Oh, and F China.

[Warg]

I was reading (will try to find it again) that there some evidence that showed countries with mandatory BCG vaccinations (TB and leprosy) had 10X less cases.

For those of you who've had it, that's that round mark on your left upper arm

Here's a summary from Bloomberg: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.Xo9PvMjYqHs

There is some biologic plausibility, but I'd need to dig further. This looks like of was analysed on a country level vs. individual/patient level and there are lots of likely confounders that arise when making these types of associations, e.g., ecological fallacy.

[teufelhund1918]

That's mentioned in the article yes. real take away for me, is that exposes the need for a more efficient, robust, and rapid plan to test and detect viruses and the world now way too small to continue as we are.

Oh, and F China.

How many times can "they" cry wolf before people don't take it seriously enough and the "big one" hits for real. I think that is part of the reason this may have spread so quickly is that folks didn't take it seriously enough. It's all good to say that it isn't a real threat unless you're one of the people who contracted it or have a loved one who died from it. Another part of the big fail is that either protocols weren't followed or weren't in place.

[Adrenaline_6]

I was reading (will try to find it again) that there some evidence that showed countries with mandatory BCG vaccinations (TB and leprosy) had 10X less cases.

For those of you who've had it, that's that round mark on your left upper arm

Wasn't that the Smallpox vaccine - circa '72 and older? (in reference to scar on upper left arm)

[ABNAK]

Wasn't that the Smallpox vaccine - circa '72 and older? (in reference to scar on upper left arm)

Yes, it was smallpox.