(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

[ChattanoogaPhil]

Surgeon General:

Friday 3/6

"When you look at the people who are getting coronavirus, 80 percent of them are not needing to be hospitalized," Adams continued. "They're having a mild illness like the cold or like a minor flu."

"Of the 20 percent who go on to need hospitalization or more medical care, we know that the folks who are most at risk tend to be people who are elderly and people who have medical problems: heart disease, lung disease, cancer, and chemotherapy,"

https://www.foxnews.com/media/risk-o...ospitalization

[Arik]

South Korea is doing more testing than any other country, they are also doing drive up testing so sick people are not going around others to get tested. Possible they are catching it and starting treatment sooner?

I was thinking that too but it's not like they have some treatment no one knows about and if they are starting treatment sooner it would still require hospitalization. Whatever it is they are doing besides the testing hopefully they're sharing the info.

Also, why is it that they were able to do testing so fast and what seems to be without drama and others can't? Like Italy, and us, for example!

[Todd.K]

Report that there are two sub types and one is "more aggressive" might explain the different numbers in different places. There has been some push back on the sample size and conclusions of the research.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coron...detected-study

Now I don't know how likely or often coronavirus mutates naturally but when I read this "evolutionarily older and less aggressive", I wonder where multiple strains might be kept at the same time? Or why the "newer" type is "more aggressive"?

[lsllc]

To me, the question is why do South Korea and Italy look so different? SK has under 1% deaths and Italy has over a 50% hospitalization rate. Something is wrong with the numbers, the measure, or there is a factor (even outside of age) that makes it look like the flu or the Black Plague. When someone can explain SK and IT, I will feel a lot better.

This is a SWAG, I don’t know how things are done in Italy, but my presumption would be that there is either a difference in testing or reporting.

Additionally, the medical system itself may lend itself to looser hospitalization criteria.


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[WillBrink]

I was thinking that too but it's not like they have some treatment no one knows about and if they are starting treatment sooner it would still require hospitalization. Whatever it is they are doing besides the testing hopefully they're sharing the info.

Also, why is it that they were able to do testing so fast and what seems to be without drama and others can't? Like Italy, and us, for example!

People trying to make some sense from the numbers during such a fast moving dynamic situation are spinning their wheels at this juncture. % of people who smoke, over 65, etc, etc, how they gather data, infrastructure differences, and a bunch of other variables, some known, some not, apply, and accuracy +/- a margin that makes the differences of little or no real value. Then you have to add that some governments you can't tust at all to give accurate figures, and it's an educated WAG at best, at least right now.

Personally, I'm relying more on the opinions of virologists and similar that have examined the virus, know the behaviors of this family of viruses, have examined the clinical features of this virus and how it compares to others, and come up with a position and guidelines, which has remained pretty consistent.

I think it's pretty unlikely it will be contained, and while I'm more concerned than I was before, the larger danger by a wide margins remains the human factor vs the virus.

I think China itself should be quarantined until they come up with a cohesive plan to stop, or greatly reduce, being the vector for nasty ass viruses every damn year.

[Scrubber3]

People trying to make some sense from the numbers during such a fast moving dynamic situation are spinning their wheels at this juncture. % of people who smoke, over 65, etc, etc, how they gather data, infrastructure differences, and a bunch of other variables, some known, some not, apply, and accuracy +/- a margin that makes the differences of little or no real value. Then you have to add that some governments you can't tust at all to give accurate figures, and it's an educated WAG at best, at least right now.

Personally, I'm relying more on the opinions of virologists and similar that have examined the virus, know the behaviors of this family of viruses, have examined the clinical features of this virus and how it compares to others, and come up with a position and guidelines, which has remained pretty consistent.

I think it's pretty unlikely it will be contained, and while I'm more concerned than I was before, the larger danger by a wide margins remains the human factor vs the virus.

I think China itself should be quarantined until they come up with a cohesive plan to stop, or greatly reduce, being the vector for nasty ass viruses every damn year.

I could not agree more

[Averageman]

Here's an unSWAG, perhaps it's already mutated?

[chuckman]

People trying to make some sense from the numbers during such a fast moving dynamic situation are spinning their wheels at this juncture. % of people who smoke, over 65, etc, etc, how they gather data, infrastructure differences, and a bunch of other variables, some known, some not, apply, and accuracy +/- a margin that makes the differences of little or no real value. Then you have to add that some governments you can't tust at all to give accurate figures, and it's an educated WAG at best, at least right now.

Personally, I'm relying more on the opinions of virologists and similar that have examined the virus, know the behaviors of this family of viruses, have examined the clinical features of this virus and how it compares to others, and come up with a position and guidelines, which has remained pretty consistent.

I think it's pretty unlikely it will be contained, and while I'm more concerned than I was before, the larger danger by a wide margins remains the human factor vs the virus.

I think China itself should be quarantined until they come up with a cohesive plan to stop, or greatly reduce, being the vector for nasty ass viruses every damn year.

It's not spinning wheels, it's epidemiology. This is what they do, run statistical models frequently with all the numbers. I do totally and completely agree that the lack of useful, timely, and truthful information from China has everyone scratching their head about this thing.

As for China, I thought the spread in Wuhan now is at zero? I thought I read that in the last day or two, but I can't say for certain.

At the end of the day, epidemiology is a little more than like forecasting the weather 2 weeks away. The spread is so wide in the conclusions, and the closer you get to the target date the narrower of the spread becomes and the more meaningful the data.

[lsllc]

Here's an unSWAG, perhaps it's already mutated?

You seem to want to be afraid


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[Honu]

The fact that there are/have been no test kits available as well as those testing positive in suspected areas/quarantines that stated they were asymptomatic. Anybody with common sense will see the symptoms are easily ridden off as any of a number of respiratory viruses. Do you really believe every case has been diagnosed?


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Just think some need to see this again about the so called 3% rate And we do not have enough test kits yet

South Korea has about a .6% rate (from the 5th) a lot more deaths but they are testing more folks

We are only testing a small %

Also good source for what is going on including the recovered
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6