(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

Originally Posted by Inkslinger

Because maybe the people in power know more about this pandemic then they’re telling us. My concern is being ramped up because of the action of governments and not media commentary.

Sure but people have been on the sanitizer and toilet paper kick separate of what people in power know or don't.

Originally Posted by Arik

Sure but people have been on the sanitizer and toilet paper kick separate of what people in power know or don't.

That could be the media hype started first. The actions of governments around the globe kind of validate the “hype”.

Originally Posted by chuckman

I have dealt with ED responses to large influx of flu patients, some of whom ended up on ECMO and died (who were otherwise healthy). I see the difference between this and the flu is even if the mortality rate on this drops from 3% or whatever to 1%, a 66% drop, it is still 10 times worse than the flu (which is 0.1%). Also, I have not seen any ICU, anywhere in the US, where there was a flood of flu patients that overwhelmed the unit as COVID-19 has done in Europe and Asia.

I don't get Chicken Little Syndrome and still see we are a long way off from "death wards" and that kind of thing, and I do believe social distancing and everything shutting down will retard the spread. BUT....I also see a definite mismatch between what we are being told and what we are seeing. We'll see how the data pans out.

Speaking of ECMO. Those with knowledge of our health systems know of how few ECMO machines there are at each system/hospital.

I would love to see the source/data that is being used to get the 1% or lower mortality rate. Using both the US and global numbers, you get around 3% every time you run them. I wonder if it's like the "it's just the flu, bro" or "98% chance of survival!" comments that are thrown around, mostly BS but intended to downplay the situation.

Originally Posted by Alpha-17

I would love to see the source/data that is being used to get the 1% or lower mortality rate. Using both the US and global numbers, you get around 3% every time you run them. I wonder if it's like the "it's just the flu, bro" or "98% chance of survival!" comments that are thrown around, mostly BS but intended to downplay the situation.

My understanding was that 80% get almost nothing to mild cases. 20% get serious case and out of those 5% are very bad/on deaths door. About 3% of those die.

I think the 1% is from the guesstimate that more people are sick or have been sick without ever reporting it or being tested. In other words the number of sick is only the number reported

Originally Posted by Alpha-17

I would love to see the source/data that is being used to get the 1% or lower mortality rate. Using both the US and global numbers, you get around 3% every time you run them. I wonder if it's like the "it's just the flu, bro" or "98% chance of survival!" comments that are thrown around, mostly BS but intended to downplay the situation.

Originally Posted by Arik

My understanding was that 80% get almost nothing to mild cases. 20% get serious case and out of those 5% are very bad/on deaths door. About 3% of those die.

I think the 1% is from the guesstimate that more people are sick or have been sick without ever reporting it or being tested. In other words the number of sick is only the number reported

https://www.businessinsider.com/sout...th-rate-2020-3

I think testing has something to do with it. Something is seriously wrong in Italy. The strain, the population, the care- something doesn't add up- or I hope it doesn't add up. I think that this has been spreading for longer than we think, more widely than we think. But if Germany and France turn into Italy, then we have a problem.

Interestingly, there seems very little out of SK in the last week. Right now I'm for a little panic bordering on concern, if it gets people to act more protectively.

Originally Posted by Arik

My understanding was that 80% get almost nothing to mild cases. 20% get serious case and out of those 5% are very bad/on deaths door. About 3% of those die.

I think the 1% is from the guesstimate that more people are sick or have been sick without ever reporting it or being tested. In other words the number of sick is only the number reported

Keep in mind this statistic is based on China telling us the truth.

Originally Posted by Whiskey_Bravo

Yeah, Trump's speech did make my decision easier. We had pretty much decided to cancel due to so much stuff shutting down in Europe but where going to make our final decision by Friday. Guess I don't have to worry about it other than to go through the process of trying to get refunds on everything I had already paid for. I am sure dealing with American Airlines will be fun.



Might want to let Italy know the mortality rate is supposed to be low. I don't think they got the memo.

It’s dropping continually as more are checked.


How do you people not get this? At first, only the sickest are tested. There are literally thousands infected that are asymptomatic. As more are tested, numbers come down. It’s currently at 6% and dropping daily in Italy.


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Originally Posted by Arik

I think the 1% is from the guesstimate that more people are sick or have been sick without ever reporting it or being tested. In other words the number of sick is only the number reported

The problem with that answer is it's just a guess, a completely made-up number based on how many unreported cases they think are out there. Yes, there is a bit of science behind it, but no actual evidence. The emphasis on unreported cases seems to be more downplaying than actually useful info.

Originally Posted by FromMyColdDeadHand

https://www.businessinsider.com/sout...th-rate-2020-3

I think testing has something to do with it.

Testing could play a role, and certainly has to a certain extent, but earlier/more testing should raise the known cases and impact the stats available to us. That really hasn't happened, at least not yet.

Originally Posted by Arik

What happened back in 2010 with the swine flu? I was young and didn't give a shit back then. Vaguely remember it being mentioned. Now I look it up and it seems like there were millions infected in the US and over 12k died. Up to half million died worldwide in about a year.

April 26 2009 US declares public health emergency
June 11 2009 H1N1 is now considered a pandemic
October 24 2009 President Obama declared national emergency

Why with millions infected and over 12k dead was this not a big deal back then?

It nearly killed my wife.


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