(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

Panic is bad but saying people should not panic because it's not killing very many is not looking at the big picture. People are panicking because this type of plague is truly unprecedented in modern times, not for how serious it is but for how fast it spreads which is mainly due to how contagious it is and ease of modern travel.

Originally Posted by mack7.62

Panic is bad but saying people should not panic because it's not killing very many is not looking at the big picture, people are panicking because this type of plague is truly unprecedented in modern times, not for how serious it is but for how fast it spreads.

What is your definition of modern times? 2009 isn't ancient history.

Originally Posted by mack7.62

How do you not get the fact that the death rate is irrelevant it's the widespread economic disruption and efforts to stop spread that are destructive of quality of life that are important. Loss of trillions in the stock market, lose of billions due to travel bans, loss of billions spent on clean ups and pretty soon you are talking real money. The social impact of this will be so much worse than reflected by the death rate, current population is not so good at enduring hardship, wait until the home invasions of gang bangers looking for toilet paper start. This is also disrupting the bread and circuses aspect of life, sports events being canceled, entertainment events canceled, latest gadgets not showing up on time, people having to focus on things that are really important are likely to have a major impact also, good or bad time will tell but I don't have much hope.

I’m sure all the people that will be killed by this would disagree with you there. Our response to this has been utterly pathetic, we needed to be testing far more people from the instant this hit our soil but we didn’t and now it’s going to spread like wildfire.

I’m not concerned at all for my personal health or economic situation, I’ll be fine, a whole lot of Americans won’t be though. The market will recover, hourly workers, contract workers, small businesses, etc might need a bailout though. It’s going to be pretty rough on them.

Originally Posted by Adrenaline_6

What is your definition of modern times? 2009 isn't ancient history.

True but the 2009 flu was not near as disruptive as this has already turned out to be. Look you can't compare this to the flu, when has the flu ever caused major sports events to be canceled.

Originally Posted by mack7.62

True but the 2009 flu was not near as disruptive as this has already turned out to be. Look you can't compare this to the flu, when has the flu ever caused major sports events to be canceled.

The real question is not "what" is happening, but "why". H1N1 infected est. @60,000,000 people in the US, hospitalized an est @275,000 and killed an est. @12,500 in 1 year (APR 2009 -Apr 2010). I think H1N1 has the upper hand right now - not to mention it went after young kids AND the old unhealthy.

Why it didn't get the same attention is the question.

Originally Posted by lsllc

My icu is in overflow. About 30% of our patients die a week the last few weeks due to influenza. We are on diversion for the first time in my career.


Additionally, we have high reporting rates for influenza.

As testing increases with COVID19, rates will continue to plummet.

Additionally, we have the disparity of “cause of death” reporting with influenza cases. Oftentimes it is reported as “respiratory failure” or “pneumonia” and slips through the statistics.

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You are in the biz, so you know that a medical disaster is literally one more patient than you have resources to treat (same as a MCI). I know the numbers change based on admitted patients, bed availability, etc. We have 100ish ICU beds, maybe a dozen more (we never divert). So in our experience, the flu doesn't come even close to touching us the way C19 is touching the major med centers in Italy. It's just the math. We know social distancing flattens the curve and 'trickles' demand for resources rather than 'deluge' the system, so hopefully by getting ahead of it (instead of what Italy, et al., did) we can be more prepared. But I imagine you don't have flu patients in the hallways; nor do your docs end up with flu requiring them to be hospitalized, either.

Why is because of how contagious this is, people not knowing they are even sick are spreading, virus is robust and can live outside the body for extended periods, health care workers have to up their level of protection. I still believe this is a bio weapon that escaped the lab in Wuhan, now question is was it a work in progress and not as deadly as desired or was it meant to be an economic weapon to disrupt the world economy if which case I would say it is pretty effective.

You have to look at the mentality of the ChiComs, I can totally believe they have wet dreams of a weapon that would take down America so they could move in and take over or a weapon the would weaken America economically so they could step in and fill the gap. Bad luck for them that their incompetence released it before finished or in the wrong place, the city where it was being developed.

Originally Posted by chuckman

You are in the biz, so you know that a medical disaster is literally one more patient than you have resources to treat (same as a MCI). I know the numbers change based on admitted patients, bed availability, etc. We have 100ish ICU beds, maybe a dozen more (we never divert). So in our experience, the flu doesn't come even close to touching us the way C19 is touching the major med centers in Italy. It's just the math. We know social distancing flattens the curve and 'trickles' demand for resources rather than 'deluge' the system, so hopefully by getting ahead of it (instead of what Italy, et al., did) we can be more prepared. But I imagine you don't have flu patients in the hallways; nor do your docs end up with flu requiring them to be hospitalized, either.

I wonder if some of that is self fulfilling. That is, media et al make a huge thing of it, many more go to ER, hospital, etc and overwhelm the system, and off you go. Where as, many people, perhaps some who probably should have seen a doc, don't go when they have/had the flu.

How much of a factor that is I don't know, but I suspect it's a component at least. I just had the flu, knew a lot of others who did too, none went to see a doc. Those numbers don't get added to the flu data base either. People are encouraged to get tested if they even suspect they have C19.

My point being, while C19 appears more virulent than common flu for those with co morbidity, I'm thinking a much higher % are also going to hospitals if they suspect they have C19 vs the flu.

Seems a lot of dynamics at play there.

Originally Posted by Adrenaline_6

The real question is not "what" is happening, but "why". H1N1 infected est. @60,000,000 people in the US, hospitalized an est @275,000 and killed an est. @12,500 in 1 year (APR 2009 -Apr 2010). I think H1N1 has the upper hand right now - not to mention it went after young kids AND the old unhealthy.

Why it didn't get the same attention is the question.

At least part of the "why" might be attributed to who was in the White House and what their relationship was to the MSM. The press pretty much did whatever the Obama admin asked of them, so if the administration decided H1N1 needed to be downplayed or ignored, it would've been.

I don't think the main drive behind the press pushing COVID-19 panic is to get Trump, I think it's probably keeping the dollars flowing by keeping the attention of the public. Sticking it to Trump is probably a significant bonus though.

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