(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

Originally Posted by Alpha-17

Social distancing will likely fail, and semi-mandatory quarantines will likely be next. Too many people look at schools closing or events being cancelled as an excuse to travel, go shopping, or other such nonsense. I'd like to point at other idiots and laugh, but I went to church and my wife dragged me to a baby shower yesterday, so I can't say I'm completely innocent. The roads weren't really any different traffic-wise, so it looks like I'm not the only one out and about. When the virus keeps spreading, governments will continue to overreact. Restaurants and such being closed are just the tip of the iceberg.

Bottom line is that even if you're in the "just the flu, bro" camp, expect things to get worse before they get better, if only due to human actions and overreactions. The panic is as much a part of this criris as the mortality rate.

Couldn’t have said it better myself. If the virus is half as contagious as all the doomsdayer’s say it is, it is already everywhere. The true number of cases is probably 4 to 5 times what the confirmed is. The total exposed already is probably 10 times that. But nobody wants to use those numbers because of the death rate falls and doesn’t make it as scary. Closing schools at this point is fu$king retarded to put it nicely. The self Quarantine isn’t working and it is not going to work people have to make a living people have shit to do. Government enforced quarantine isnt going work either. There’s not enough manpower to enforce it. We going to continue drive the panic until it is at an absolute frenzied state then when we get some civil unrest and get people killed ,probably more than what the virus will actually kill, we’re gonna stand around with our thumb up our ass and say we had to do something.

Said this on another thread, but I really think this whole thing is over blown for one of two reasons in the end.

1) They...the gubbamint... knows more about this virus and what will happen to it than they are publicly admitting. Meaning that it probably is a weaponized virus that escaped from the bio-lab in the Chinese province by accident and will mutate at some point to a lethal virus and kill a lot of people. They wouldn't come out and admit that there is more coming in order to try to limit the mass hysteria that would follow. But they would be getting things into place to keep it as isolated as possible.

2) Although there is a real virus, the progressive socialist media, politicians and other groups have blown this all out of proportion to what it actually is in order to make Trump look bad for the 2020 election. The progressive socialist types don't care about anything else other than getting their agenda in place one way or another. Never let a crisis go to waste. Trump derangement syndrome is a bigger threat to our safety and security than the Covid 19 virus.

I've thought about it a bit and these two scenarios are the only two that make sense about what is actually taking place now. Am I wrong???

Yes, because the government isn’t saying it’s a bio weapon engineered by China means it’s definitely a bio weapon engineered by China. I think I’m going to buy stock in Reynolds with all the dumb tin foil hat building going on right now.

Originally Posted by teufelhund1918

Said this on another thread, but I really think this whole thing is over blown for one of two reasons in the end.

1) They...the gubbamint... knows more about this virus and what will happen to it than they are publicly admitting. Meaning that it probably is a weaponized virus that escaped from the bio-lab in the Chinese province by accident and will mutate at some point to a lethal virus and kill a lot of people. They wouldn't come out and admit that there is more coming in order to try to limit the mass hysteria that would follow. But they would be getting things into place to keep it as isolated as possible.

2) Although there is a real virus, the progressive socialist media, politicians and other groups have blown this all out of proportion to what it actually is in order to make Trump look bad for the 2020 election. The progressive socialist types don't care about anything else other than getting their agenda in place one way or another. Never let a crisis go to waste. Trump derangement syndrome is a bigger threat to our safety and security than the Covid 19 virus.

I've thought about it a bit and these two scenarios are the only two that make sense about what is actually taking place now. Am I wrong???

1), Every legit person who has examined it, one who posted here a few pages back, says clearly not a bio weapon/weaponized virus, so no. Some times a cigar is just a cigar and all that...

2) For sure, they're doing everything they can to make sure this reflect badly on Trump anyway they can and if that costs panic and hyteria, and makes everything worse, they don't care. The end justifies the means in their view.

The response to the virus is more dangerous than the virus and panic is very contagious.

Imagine that...a veiled communist calling for a federal takeover of private industry.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/de-...like-situation

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is arguing that the best way to tackle the coronavirus outbreak is for the federal government to take over critical private companies in the medical field and have them running 24 hours a day.

The mayor, who made multiple media appearances over the weekend, said that the current situation calls for drastic measures which include nationalizing certain industries.

“This is a case for a nationalization, literally a nationalization, of crucial factories and industries that could produce the medical supplies to prepare this country for what we need,” de Blasio told MSNBC’s Joy Reid on Saturday, calling for “24/7 shifts” during what he called a “war-like situation.”

The following day, de Blasio reiterated this message, telling CNN that “the federal government needs to take over the supply chain right now.” He specified the need for companies that make ventilators, surgical masks, and hand sanitizers to be taken over and made to work around the clock.

My old Navy squadron VP 94 was have a reunion this past weekend at Bayou Segnette State park in the suburbs of New Orleans. Camp sites and cabins had been rented in advance. Some arrived Friday, Saturday morning part ranger told them they had to vacate the park. It is to be used as an isolation area. It was also announced on the local news.

The current US infection rate (as of 3/15/2020 this AM) is 3,807 out of a 2020 estimated 331,000,000 US pop. That’s a proportion of 0.0012% or 11.5 per 1,000,000. The likelihood of dying from CODIV-19 in the US is currently at 69 deaths/331,000,000 or 0.00002%

The current, global CFR is 3.8% and 1.8% in the US.

WA State is the state that currently has the highest case fatality rate due principally to cases in King (n=420 with 37 deaths) and Snohomish (n=176) counties with the latter believed to be the initial the source of infection in the US (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191). King county alone has more than half of the deaths in the United States. If we remove WA State from the US case fatality rate, the US CFR is 0.89%. In fact, if we remove King County alone, that's 37 deaths with 29 of those at one facility (Life Care Center of Kirkland, WA).

There is strong evidence of a does-response effect with respect to exposure to virus particles and healthcare workers are among those at highest risk.

In addition to the risk factors presented in my post last week, co-infection with influenza appears to be another. Note that, according to a recent update from the CDC (as of Feb 22) , the current flu burden estimates are 32 million infected, 18,000 deaths, and flu activity is finally waning.

A some have posited, we're not sure if there will be a seasonal affect with regard to COVID-19. In laboratory controlled conditions, the virus survives longer in cooler, humid climates. Thus, like other CoVs, it is sensitive to ultraviolet rays and heat, but there's not a lot of direct evidence of this in the real world. However, the risk of co-infection with influenza would decrease as we depart the flu season.

Note that the viruses can be effectively inactivated by lipid solvents including ether (75%), ethanol, chlorine-containing disinfectant, peroxyacetic acid and chloroform except for chlorhexidine. (ref: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554776/)

Flattening the curve is the key right now and standard protocols are being followed with respect to any standard, infectious disease epidemic. With respect to the epidemic curves, the US and W Europe is still in the growth phase.

Warg,

I appreciate your info. Thanks for taking the time to post.

Korgs

Originally Posted by Korgs130

Warg,

I appreciate your info. Thanks for taking the time to post.

Korgs

Happy to help, thanks!

Originally Posted by Korgs130

Warg,

I appreciate your info. Thanks for taking the time to post.

Korgs

+1

Thanks Warg, it’s really nice to hear from someone who isn’t just an armchair QB on this.