(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

Originally Posted by pinzgauer

I really think the people who are not following social distancing and "flatten the curve" approaches are either very ignorant or being deliberately obtuse. That includes folks hanging out in bars. Like hurricanes they'll be the ones who say they didn't know. (My brother had to turn a classroom into a morgue for an avoidable fatality in very mild hurricane.) Or be the small percentage who shows up at the hospital saying they can't breathe. And not get a ventilator.

So enjoy that time in Margeritaville while you can. I know how short beds can be in Dade county hospitals, much less the Keys. And a niece nurse in west florida treating cases. Yep oldsters, as is most of S FL.

Flatten the curve

Or be the healthcare worker, who despite avoiding the risks, still has this shit right up in their face every singe day at work. Now that irresponsible shithead (be they old gamblers who couldn't resist the casino, bingo, or "early bird special", or the Millennial POS out bar-hopping for St. Paddy's Day) will infect that worker.

God, I love helping people. If there was a crystal ball that could tell you if a patient did something stupid when contracting the virus (like I mentioned above), especially after the warnings we've been given, I'd be the first to advocate denying them care. Stupid hurts, and should, but not someone else.

Originally Posted by ABNAK

Or be the healthcare worker, who despite avoiding the risks, still has this shit right up in their face every singe day at work. Now that irresponsible shithead (be they old gamblers who couldn't resist the casino, bingo, or "early bird special", or the Millennial POS out bar-hopping for St. Paddy's Day) will infect that worker.

God, I love helping people. If there was a crystal ball that could tell you if a patient did something stupid when contracting the virus (like I mentioned above), especially after the warnings we've been given, I'd be the first to advocate denying them care. Stupid hurts, and should, but not someone else.

People either genuflect and slap me on the back and tell me how awesome I am along with you and our other health care colleagues, or they sneer and say, I don't know how you could do that.

I don't do for them, I do it for my fellow healthcare workers, and I do it for our patients. And I don't appreciate people who minimize their risk and maximize ours while doing it.

Originally Posted by chuckman

People either genuflect and slap me on the back and tell me how awesome I am along with you and our other health care colleagues, or they sneer and say, I don't know how you could do that.

I don't do for them, I do it for my fellow healthcare workers, and I do it for our patients. And I don't appreciate people who minimize their risk and maximize ours while doing it.

Amen brother! Because the only ones usually expected to "sacrifice" are the folks providing care, 'cause hey, "You signed up for this". No I didn't and that's horseshit, and a subject for another day, but irresponsibility reaches across all age groups. Be it the selfish senior citizen or selfish younger person, that word "selfish" seems to raise it's ugly head in this case to actually threaten the lives of those who are supposed to help.

A sacrificial lamb I'm not, and I'll call it like I see it.

Anyone else see the idiot child who licked the toilet seat in the airplane?

I swear, Darwin doesn't happen quickly enough for some.

Originally Posted by Grand58742

Anyone else see the idiot child who licked the toilet seat in the airplane?

I swear, Darwin doesn't happen quickly enough for some.

I’ve heard of window lickers but this takes it to the next level.

Thanks for the information and very much appreciate the work you're doing.

For clarification, the virus can survive quite well in cool and humid laboratory conditions as I cited earlier, but some are confusing this with transmission (not you). We typically see an appreciable spike in seasonal pneumonia and influenza mortality during the winter months and this is related to transmission and to an exacerbation of symptoms, particularly with concomitant disease (e.g., COPD). I think there is an abstract or manuscript out there on this with my name on it when I was at the CDC. PM me if you want it and are bored

Now, regarding spread and warm weather, we are not likely to see any effect yet during the pandemic and growth phase of a new epidemic. We hope there will be an effect later on with a reduction in spread.

There is some speculation of secondary epidemic, but no real data at this point. This is not to be confused with secondary/re-infection as there have been erroneous publications on the latter. What we think happened is that some tested negative for antibodies when they exhibited COVID-19 symptoms, and subsequently tested. This may simply be due to the nature and course of the disease and the body's response.

WRT to infection rates, this is still unknown and will vary by geography and other factors. A few weeks ago I read wildly varying hypotheses from 10-90% but no one has robust data at this point. I suspect it is closer to the lower end of that estimate 10%, but I could be wrong and we will never know the actual proportion.

Absolutely the best thing to do is flatten the curve. Thanks for reiterating that!

Originally Posted by pinzgauer

Working high up in a large global IT firm, I'm directly involved in tracking impact in the 30-35 countries we have employees in.

Some data points we see (directly and from local country health officials):

- So far, hot and humid areas show no reduced rate of spread. We have a statistically significant employee population in certain countries.

- India is at about the same phase as the US, maybe a week behind. Rest of Europe is 1-2 weeks ahead of the US (in general). US may be underreported.

- flattening the curve is only reasonable response at this point, with all that goes with it. (We are serious about that aspect)

- there is serious concern about a second wave late summer or fall

For awareness, we have operations in just about every current hot infected zone.

Likewise, even island nations are infected. Maybe NZ can avoid community spread. I don't think Aus can.

I have employees and coworkers in countries under effectively or literally martial law. All are ok so far. But they are scared with what they see. Note they do not have CNN or your favorite mainstream media we love to hate.

My one China guy is in good shape, he bolted to Shanghai and dodged it.

Personally, I have no idea what the impact might be. I hope it's only as bad as a cold like some wail. But indications are for senior citizens its much worse.

I have 22 confirmed infected in my county including an HS teacher and a preschool. And about 30 in the next county where everyone works. It's here and spreading. All we can try to do is slow it down.

Our state numbers doubled in 2-3 days, nature of community infection.

Rough math: ~6M people x 10% infection rate x 3% mortality avg= 18k deaths. In what, an 8-10 wk period? Incremental to the flu. I'm hoping we can reduce to just a 10% infection rate. What is typical, 25%? I'm sure someone will tell me the numbers are all wrong. I'm not an epidemiologist. But I know enough to know that even very conservatively, statistically someone I know will die from this thing before its over with. And hospitals are likely to be overwhelmed.A

Not trying to fear monger, the opposite. Flatten the curve. Don't waste time/money on things that won't make a bit of difference. Do the things that will.

Originally Posted by WillBrink

Would I be off base by saying if you're not prepped by now you're doing it wrong? Maybe more mental prep? I'm doing my best with that one.

You are correct: I'm talking mental prep and planning. At this point, unless you have very deep pockets and know the right people, you likely aren't obtaining stockpiles of much any time soon.

With all these changes come around, it's time to read the writing on the wall and make whatever plans are necessary. For example, I may need to turn a room into an office, and it's not like I have unused rooms in my house. Nonetheless, I spent the weekend making it happen, talking to people who needed good info, and making plans to help those in my bubble who will likely need help.

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Originally Posted by Warg

Thanks for the information and very much appreciate the work you're doing.

Thanks, but my part is safe and easy. It's the folks trying to treat and beat this that have the hard jobs! And thanks for your informative posts!

For clarification, the virus can survive quite well in cool and humid laboratory conditions as I cited earlier, but some are confusing this with transmission (not you). We typically see an appreciable spike in seasonal pneumonia and influenza mortality during the winter months and this is related to transmission and to an exacerbation of symptoms, particularly with concomitant disease (e.g., COPD). I think there is an abstract or manuscript out there on this with my name on it when I was at the CDC. PM me if you want it and are bored

Now, regarding spread and warm weather, we are not likely to see any effect yet during the pandemic and growth phase of a new epidemic. We hope there will be an effect later on with a reduction in spread.

My point was that based on what we are seeing in hot and humid countries, we are not counting on warm weather changing things.

There is some speculation of secondary epidemic, but no real data at this point. This is not to be confused with secondary/re-infection as there have been erroneous publications on the latter.

Makes sense, and we don't have any specific data. Just that we are having to be prepared as a company as we are being told it's possibly a risk.

WRT to infection rates, this is still unknown and will vary by geography and other factors.

Yep, much variation on the numbers, and also much under reporting of potential infected. But also offset by the fact the other countries/areas with mortality numbers also probably had similar under reporting of infected.

Absolutely the best thing to do is flatten the curve. Thanks for reiterating that!

I made the decision even before I heard the phrase... but once I heard it and saw the graph, it made sense.

The corporation is serious about this, our CEO has done mandatory all hands meetings and hammered the points on social distancing, flatten the curve, etc. As will I with my teams. We (entire large company) are now 100% work from home unless physically required to go onsite for deliverables. Literally figuring out how to ship laptops to folks who do not normally have them. All travel requires corp risk mgt approval, etc.

Just tallied Bus Continuity resource requirements for our top accounts, did heat map of where those resources are by country, analysis of employees in impacted countries, etc. Not my normal job, just helping with the analysis.

By the way to the nay-sayers, you can treat the risks with reasonable caution and not:
- Hoard Toilet Paper, bleach, sanitizer (but a good idea to keep a bit extra on hand. But too late now)
- Fight over groceries (we had guys fighting over the last case of water locally. Wine bottles to the head!)
- Buy Ammo in a panic (But always good to buy ammo not in a panic)
- Declare the start of the WWIII, end of times, Boogaloo, whatever
- Expect Economic collapse (this does not mean there will not be some hard months for companies)
- Stay inside. Social distancing means 6'. Wife and daughter have taken walks through the neighborhood every day, and will. So Will, keep walking your dog! :-)

No argument the crazies are out there. My view: Social Distancing and Flatten the Curve cost almost nothing and should help slow the spread. Not much else in sight will. I'm in!

Originally Posted by pinzgauer

... My view: Social Distancing and Flatten the Curve cost almost nothing and should help slow the spread. Not much else in sight will. I'm in!

Flattening the curve a bit is a decent idea. But ordering such draconian measures IS NOT. Obviously you’re not a small business owner that will still have to pay rent, insurance, franchise fees, power bills, etc... all while being unconstitutionally ordered to shut down their business. Additionally, there may be some pie-in-the-sky promises of money for the employees, but I guarantee that they will only cover the <$8 an hour those employees make and not the tips that they depend on.

The amount of damage these authoritarian measures will cause is immeasurable. All for a cold-on-steroids. Literally. Remember, the “common cold” is a corona virus. So we are financially ruining thousands or tens of thousands of people because there is a tiny risk that this virus is worse than the flu, but actually it hasn’t shown to be more than 1/10th as bad as the flu.