(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

Originally Posted by chuckman

That's right. But it's not a surprise; it's pre-assigned. People move like chess pieces. Dr. Grand58742 is working in the ED at Naval Hospital BFE, you know it's an deployable billet. They activate the Comfort, you get deployed with her. Dr. Chuckman gets assigned your ED billet, or it's cross-covered (mainly by civil service docs). Or, Dr. Chuckman, a reservist, is asked to go on orders to backfill your slot; that can be 30-day orders all the way to a year. Personnel are drawn from multiple units.

Gotcha. Thanks.

The Navy medical folks that took care of us in '04-05 when I was deployed were good to go. I thought it quite comical the young med tech trying to brief me about "social diseases" and GO-1 violations because I got a UTI from some bad water. I think she was far more embarrassed talking about it and handing over condoms than I was receiving the "talk." All of probably 19 or 20 years old on her first deployment.

Originally Posted by ramairthree

Your post.....

I do not disagree with you. I am not sure I fully agree with you. In all honesty, my needle moves based on what I am doing at work, and I agree with many perspectives and disagree with parts of the same, at the same time.

BLUF, to flatten the curve does a few things. 1) it buys HC time to prepare resources, 2) it staggers input over time instead of a single deluge, 3) hopeful social distancing and quarantine prevents some illness, gives others a chance to get better, 4) prevents spread. As I am sure you know, some hospitals can play 3D chess with ICU patients: new patient needs vent, put healthiest ICU patient on CPAP/BiPAP to bridge, and move to stepdown, etc. A lot of ICUs do this, every day, especially during flu season. Smaller hospitals, one ICU, etc., cannot do this. But what none of us have done or can do, is be at 100% census in all ICUs and still have 30+ patients needing vents at the same time. That scenario is what flattening the curve is all about, and the scenario we are trying to prevent.

I absolutely believe in social distancing and quarantining. I am not so bullish on .gov-compelled shut-downs and standstills.

Originally Posted by lsllc

All ours were negative on flu and respiratory panels. Ultimately linked to one patient who was a traveler.


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Had the same thing at my hospital, mid-January: a lot of staff with the flu, but negative for flu. "Bad virus," or "influenza-like illness." In hindsight, think it was coronavirus.

And the Dems keep playing games in order to tank the economy further. At what point will we have enough?

Originally Posted by chuckman

Had the same thing at my hospital, mid-January: a lot of staff with the flu, but negative for flu. "Bad virus," or "influenza-like illness." In hindsight, think it was coronavirus.

My dad had a cough he couldn't shake for weeks right around the new years. Wasn't the flu.

Originally Posted by ramairthree

Yes, it’s worse than the flu.
Yes, it will strain the system.
Yes, some alleviating, flattening, procedures needed to occur.
But it is not a death sentence. We are talking 8% death rate with average age of 80 in a second world health care system with way less ICU and vent capacity.

We have destroyed a nation’s economy and way of life, ruined tons of businesses, put millions out of jobs, etc. in order to save elderly, sick, and unhealthy people from dying from COVID that were already going to die from other medical conditions at the same time or later this year.

.

As Trump rightly asked on Twitter "Is the cure worse then the disease?"

It's a fair Q, but once the panic ball gets rolling, there's generally no stopping it, and if you're not well prepared (and experts have been telling us for decades this was a when, not an if, event), then you're reactive vs pro active, and that rarely end well. Maybe this will be the event where people wake the F up?

A worldwide depression comes with some serious costs too, and can and does lead to large scale deaths from various routes, be it disease, starvation, or war.

This however will all have to be examined in hindsight now and I said many pages ago, panic is highly contagious, if not more so than the actual virus.

Oh, and F China.

Originally Posted by Warg

Did you read the articles, note the author affiliations and note the source of the genomic sequencing data?

I didn't think so.

I read them, mostly Greek to me, and due to the fact that China has been buying Professors like penny candy not sure how much faith to have in their conclusions. It just seems mighty coincidental that this virus just happened to take off in Wuhan, home of the BSL4 research lab. That plus the timing, agreeing to an unfavorable trade deal, the fact that the ChiComs really want to take us down, the way they handled the outbreak, the characteristics of the virus, would not let CDC into the country, made their own people disappear, all of this makes me highly skeptical this is a naturally occurring event. The whole live animal market source just smacks of cover up to me.

Originally Posted by chuckman

I do not disagree with you. I am not sure I fully agree with you. In all honesty, my needle moves based on what I am doing at work, and I agree with many perspectives and disagree with parts of the same, at the same time.

BLUF, to flatten the curve does a few things. 1) it buys HC time to prepare resources, 2) it staggers input over time instead of a single deluge, 3) hopeful social distancing and quarantine prevents some illness, gives others a chance to get better, 4) prevents spread. As I am sure you know, some hospitals can play 3D chess with ICU patients: new patient needs vent, put healthiest ICU patient on CPAP/BiPAP to bridge, and move to stepdown, etc. A lot of ICUs do this, every day, especially during flu season. Smaller hospitals, one ICU, etc., cannot do this. But what none of us have done or can do, is be at 100% census in all ICUs and still have 30+ patients needing vents at the same time. That scenario is what flattening the curve is all about, and the scenario we are trying to prevent.

I absolutely believe in social distancing and quarantining. I am not so bullish on .gov-compelled shut-downs and standstills.

No need to agree or disagree.

Just asking people to consider:
-exponential growth on a graph or in a lab is very different from real world human growth
-less drastic measures could have shifted the curve right and flattened the peak
-C19 is not a death sentence
-how much panic and significant impact the media fanned for ratings
-did the media have other goals such as an opportunity to destroy the economy in an election year
-three million Amercians die every year. The same three million most at risk from dying from a C19 infection
-ICUs, emergency, and critical care are near, at, or over 100% capacity every day. Without C19 involvement.
-In the USA, we expend massive resources and funds into terminal, chronic, futile, and end of life care other advanced countries don’t.
-Virtually all the deaths from a worst case C19 scenario would occur in people already near death.
-The media continues to publicize and spread information in a manner that is misleading and maintains panic.
-Are the short and long term, multiple, significant adverse secondary, tertiary, and quaternary effects worth what has been done.

Originally Posted by WillBrink

As Trump rightly asked on Twitter "Is the cure worse then the disease?"

It's a fair Q, but once the panic ball gets rolling, there's generally no stopping it, and if you're not well prepared (and experts have been telling us for decades this was a when, not an if, event), then you're reactive vs pro active, and that rarely end well. Maybe this will be the event where people wake the F up?

A worldwide depression comes with some serious costs too, and can and does lead to large scale deaths from various routes, be it disease, starvation, or war.

This however will all have to be examined in hindsight now and I said many pages ago, panic is highly contagious, if not more so than the actual virus.

Oh, and F China.

I keep trying to think if any good will come from it.

Will businesses recognize the folly of years of activity based only on quarterly reports instead of long term?
Will over the top regulations that drove out businesses be reviewed to place better quality manufacturing back in Amercia?
Will we come up with some more sane limits on end of life care?
Will leftists recognize organizing for wages and benefits too high drive away good jobs?
Will capitalist learn too much top heavy financial expenditures regardless of performance don’t produce product?

Originally Posted by vicious_cb

No question the virus is mutating as its spreads, either this is either gonna mutate and become more lethal or mutate and become less lethal.

Originally Posted by grizzlyblake

I heard someone smart say that viruses tend to mutate to be less lethal, as killing it's own host is not good business practice in virus world.

Mutations happen. Their effect is independent of their causation. Mutations will usually have a negative effect on the organism because it will screw up something that needs to happen to replicate. And their ability to replicate is all that really matters. Things don’t change when they are pressed, the general mutations and genetic drift either give them an advantage or don’t- but those changes are random, not in response to the event.

Originally Posted by ramairthree

I have ran some math and evaluation based on available information as of the past two days.

For starters,. it.

Over 283.5 million people are not going to have any significant symptoms, go to a doctor, or have any issues.

About 49.5 million people will feel sick.

Let’s say About 7.5 million will be severe and need to be in the hospital.

And 750,000 of those are going to buy ten days on a vent.

I am being very, very generous with the doom percentages.

.

According to Italy, we are going to see a lot more hospitalizations than that.

Originally Posted by mack7.62

IF you develop immunity which is still an unknown, I keep hearing it might be possible to get reinfected with mild or no symptoms.

Well you definitely develop antibodies...which is why you no longer have it. Otherwise you’d never get better.

If it’s like the four seasonal coronaviruses, which there is no reason to believe that it isn’t, you’ll have what is essentially immunity for about a year, and reduced symptoms for longer, though we know that in all likelihood the antibody production slowly decreases over time...which is to be expected, it’s inefficient to produce antibodies to things your body no longer sees a threat from.