That model has been notoriously inaccurate, and I don't know anyone uses them in real life, that is, the healthcare setting. Also that is not the model where the CDC gets its information.Originally Posted by ramairthree
A few posts above I talked about the challenges with the epidemiology and the data with this, and why there are so many different models. I have no ego in this, I will be just fine if all of this peter's out in a week or two.
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Absolutely. I really really hope the crappy predictions don't pan out. I would gladly eat crow (seriously). Life would be better for everyone, both health-wise and economically. Originally Posted by chuckman
Having said that, in a week or two if shit goes sideways I will solicit the opinions of the naysayers. I have a frontline seat to this shit-show (unfortunately). And if I'm wrong I'll gladly post pics of the crow I have in the crockpot. And I hope I'm wrong.Last edited by ABNAK; 03-25-20 at 18:55.
11C2P '83-'87
Airborne Infantry -
I guess you make smaller meals Originally Posted by FromMyColdDeadHand
The food situation to me is somewhat troubling. Wife just came home with a haul of food, but it is a bunch of crap. She was limited to two of anything, including any kind of 'bread' item. I'm for limiting people from hoarding, but how are you supposed to feed a family of four three meals a day for a week when you are limited in what you can by? Not going to starve, but bread or hot dog buns seems an odd. The problem is that even with the 'two item' rule, the store was out of most 'real' items. Want a snackable, ice cream sandwhiches, Pirate Booty or other crap, you are OK. Hamburger, chicken, eggs- not so much.
We were told that there was plenty of food, I'm throwing the BS card on that- and it is only going to get worse as you shut down take-home/delivery meals. Sure, I can que up every morning and hope to get in early enough to get what I need, Soviet style- but that isn't what we were told. I have plenty of food since I started stocking up back in January, but that is mostly frozen or dried goods. We are trying to eat what we buy and buy what we eat so that we have the reserve if things get even tighter.
The told us that the food wouldn't be an issue, but it is an issue- and that will make the hoarding worse, which makes the stocking issue worse. Do we need the NG out stocking shelves?
I also feel like the Supermarkets are moving all the old and low quality stuff they have in the warehouse. I got some onions last week that were complete crap.
I feel like I've been a week ahead of the curve on stuff, so next week when the bodies really start hitting the ER/ICUs and people start really dying, people who are now overlooking the supply situation will lose their crap. Plus, people not being able to pay for food, that too.
In the grand-scheme of things, I know, beats riding a landing craft to an Iwo JIma beach. I had a wonderful NY Strip steak with grilled brussel sprouts & onions with backed potato- but I didn't realize until I got home that the "sour cream" needed the quotation marks because as the last sour cream, it was actually soy cream.... that ain't right. And the only reason I bought steak was I couldn't get chicken or ground beef for burgers...
While we stocked early for TP and paper towels, we haven't bought any for a month. Eventually even those who planned ahead will run out. And I really don't want to have to sacrifice a hoarder on a funeral pyre made of paper goods to make an example of what happens to hoarders.
Was at 2 stores today. Costco had whatever you want no limit, even wild caught Salmon for $10/lb. Local supermarket had less meat but enough to last a week. Even bacon was buy one pack get the second free or ...4/$10 for a different brand. Plenty of brisket, whole chicken, burgers. Some pork loin. Nothing that's already pre made, so no ground beef. -
I think it is a roll of the dice on when you go. I haven't seen whole sections of food wiped out when I went, but co-workers have.
One of my favorite places to eat, an Italian food truck, is having trouble staying supplied and shared pics of the pasta shelf down to just a couple boxes total, not a couple of each. -
They are literally coming up with numbers for single states I get for the entire country with a 100% infection rate. Over a 4 month period. Which should be impossible. Originally Posted by chuckman
They also fail to account for the baseline death rate. For example Italy has a population of about 60 million and a little over 10 deaths per 1000 each year. Which tends to climb a little as average ages go up. Same here, but a touch over 8.5/1000 with a pop of 330 million or so.“Where weapons may not be carried, it is well to carry weapons.” -
Well I'm now on a shelter in place order. However, I am out of lagavulin, so no.
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Kinda hopin you’d be essential services anyways... Originally Posted by LowSpeed_HighDrag
Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkSic semper tyrannis. -
I am. But I can tell you, it's uneforceable. Travel freely. Originally Posted by Wake27
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Print up something that looks official and says alcohol combined with peat and iodine make you immune to corona virus. Originally Posted by LowSpeed_HighDrag
It can’t be any less accurate than much of the main stream media coverage.“Where weapons may not be carried, it is well to carry weapons.” -
Guys- I've been extremely busy working on a new oncology drug (my day job)! Originally Posted by chuckman
Agreed, the models are all over the place and epidemiology really faces its limits when measures are imprecise. Recall that quote I posted from Box: "all models are wrong, but some are useful". Many are citing the worst-case estimates and the models really break down when we employ mitigation such as the flattening the curve strategy with no way to effectively measure the results. I have some colleagues a USC who are modeling a peak in deaths over the next 10 days or sooner which I believe will be the case as well. Let's hope we're right.
As far as infection rates, one cannot effectively model this with the variability in reporting, testing methods, testing rates, and questionable PPV. It frustrates me when the media and the WHO are saying our infection rates continue to skyrocket. They simply cannot grasp the concept that we're still lagging in testing and reporting results.
For death estimates you could crudely try to look at the percent testing positive (currently 14.5% nationwide), multiply by age-stratified proportions (adjust for the age distribution in the US), gender, then multiply by the case fatality rate. This will have severe limitations as well due to the lack of testing, lack of data and lags in the data, likely inclusion of the most severe and difficult to treat cases, and a denominator that is severely underestimated. You would get an overestimate in risk with that approach and that's sort of what some of these current models are doing (along with estimated transmission rates and infection propagation estimates). Ideally you'd need to adjust for those living in urban vs. rural areas, access to health care, socioeconomic status, estimate the risk in the untested/asymptomatic and a host of other things. It ain't easy.Last edited by Warg; 03-25-20 at 21:00.
