(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

Originally Posted by thepatriot2705

2 trillion dollars. Lot of pork. After Trumps attack on Massie, I am firmly off the Trump train. Who wants me to write them in?

There was no way congress critters were not gonna put a ton of pork into the bill, we all know this. Massie's grandstanding was as unnecessary as Trump's attack on his.

Originally Posted by Alex V

I'm no scientist, but as an Architect, if I gave you a set of drawings and said it was for a 4,000SF home, then when it's built it ends up a 160sf shed, I would lose my license. Yet somehow we let "scientists" slide with this crap all the time, just look at the wildly wrong predictions of climatologists; hockey stick graph et al. If you want to do crap science, fine, but if your crap science effects the lives of millions or in this case, billions of people, and you are wrong, you should be in prison for a long long time.

The media crap fest over incorrect reports like these caused a panic which really screwed over a lot of people. I just don't see any defense to what this dude said/did/wrote/published. Maybe instead of wanting to be the first one out with your chicken little theory, you wait for some more data before making such predictions?

Are you and everyone else missing this part of Warg’s post?

However, the authors also present a low estimate (with social controls and a lower disease reproduction factor) of 5,600 deaths in GB with a similar proportional reduction in the US

Originally Posted by Alex V

There was no way congress critters were not gonna put a ton of pork into the bill, we all know this. Massie's grandstanding was as unnecessary as Trump's attack on his.

Didn’t know standing up for the constitution was grand standing. The last few weeks have confirmed that no one gives a damn about the constitution.

Originally Posted by thepatriot2705

Didn’t know standing up for the constitution was grand standing. The last few weeks have confirmed that no one gives a damn about the constitution.

Was he really? Or was it a chance to get some attention? Maybe I am a bit jaded, and don't trust anyone in congress.

Originally Posted by Alex V

I'm no scientist, but as an Architect, if I gave you a set of drawings and said it was for a 4,000SF home, then when it's built it ends up a 160sf shed, I would lose my license. Yet somehow we let "scientists" slide with this crap all the time, just look at the wildly wrong predictions of climatologists; hockey stick graph et al. If you want to do crap science, fine, but if your crap science effects the lives of millions or in this case, billions of people, and you are wrong, you should be in prison for a long long time.

The media crap fest over incorrect reports like these caused a panic which really screwed over a lot of people. I just don't see any defense to what this dude said/did/wrote/published. Maybe instead of wanting to be the first one out with your chicken little theory, you wait for some more data before making such predictions?

I completely agree with you. I think scientists often fail with responsibly communicating their findings to the media and, in this case, interacting with policymakers. Any work around modeling is particularly suspect and needs to be reinforced as just that- a model with a wide variability of inputs and outputs and one that needs to be updated regularly as new data emerge. And, after all of that, it's still a model. It seems like many focused on the numbers with this particular work rather than the authors conclusions that were primarily focused on epidemic suppression through interventions to flatten the curve.

I would think the architect/scientist analogy in this case would be more akin to drafting scaleable set of plans for a structure between x and y square footage (or volume), with inputs and outputs of varying electrical demand, HVAC, plumbing, sewage, etc. Maybe that's a poor analogy?

At any rate, this type of work and the resulting uncertainty is one of the reasons I'm an epidemiologist working in oncology rather than infectious disease.

March 27, 2020
China's Totally Got the Wuhan Flu Beaten and the Transmission Rate is Only 0.055 Per Million
And Oh Yeah, They Just Ordered All Their Cinemas Closed Again
And Oh Yeah, There's Open Rioting as Provinces Set Up Barricades to Seal Themselves Off
—Ace

http://ace.mu.nu/

Let me tell you how "beaten" the Wuhan Flu is in China:

It's so beaten that when Hubei province -- where Wuhan is located -- was taken off lockdown and Hubei residents tried to cross a river into neighboring Jiangxi province, Jiangxi cops blocked the bridge.

(Don't bother with that propaganda report from UPI -- they substantially underplay the story, probably to appease the Chinese. I link it just to confirm the citizen reporting I link below.)
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-N...4461585330760/
Blocked from leaving their province, then Hubei citizens began getting violent, overturning the Jiangxi police's cars.

And then the Hubei police started battling the Jiangxi police.

So definitely trust the Chinese Propaganda Media -- both the one actually in China, and the one here in NYC, DC, and Atlanta.

China Shuts Down All Cinemas, Again

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...-again-1287040

Originally Posted by Alex V

Was he really? Or was it a chance to get some attention? Maybe I am a bit jaded, and don't trust anyone in congress.

Massie is one of the few good ones...I trust him over orange man

Originally Posted by Warg

I completely agree with you. I think scientists often fail with responsibly communicating their findings to the media and, in this case, interacting with policymakers. Any work around modeling is particularly suspect and needs to be reinforced as just that- a model with a wide variability of inputs and outputs and one that needs to be updated regularly as new data emerge. And, after all of that, it's still a model. It seems like many focused on the numbers with this particular work rather than the authors conclusions that were primarily focused on epidemic suppression through interventions to flatten the curve.

I would think the architect/scientist analogy in this case would be more akin to drafting scaleable set of plans for a structure between x and y square footage (or volume), with inputs and outputs of varying electrical demand, HVAC, plumbing, sewage, etc. Maybe that's a poor analogy?

At any rate, this type of work and the resulting uncertainty is one of the reasons I'm an epidemiologist working in oncology rather than infectious disease.

Also, in many (but not all) cases, findings are disseminated through a different channel, who often edits the reports to be readable to non-science people. Peer-reviewed journals are the vast exception.

Originally Posted by Warg

I completely agree with you. I think scientists often fail with responsibly communicating their findings to the media and, in this case, interacting with policymakers. Any work around modeling is particularly suspect and needs to be reinforced as just that- a model with a wide variability of inputs and outputs and one that needs to be updated regularly as new data emerge. And, after all of that, it's still a model. It seems like many focused on the numbers with this particular work rather than the authors conclusions that were primarily focused on epidemic suppression through interventions to flatten the curve.

I would think the architect/scientist analogy in this case would be more akin to drafting scaleable set of plans for a structure between x and y square footage (or volume), with inputs and outputs of varying electrical demand, HVAC, plumbing, sewage, etc. Maybe that's a poor analogy?

At any rate, this type of work and the resulting uncertainty is one of the reasons I'm an epidemiologist working in oncology rather than infectious disease.

I think another major issue is that the press has lots of time to fill, so reporting on what HAS happened has been swamped with what MIGHT happen. Get a study, peer reviewed by the people that you are going to peer review about some modelling and stats that you draw a conclusion on and viola, a news story about how we are just 18 months away from, flying cars, killer AI, helpful AI, self-driving cars, world apocalypse or world peace.

Bubble headed bleach-blonde comes on at five, tells about the pandemic, with a gleam in her eye-the press loves it when people die- dirty laundry...

little comic relief...solid.


It Took a Global Pandemic, But Generation X is Finally Getting Love

Sorry Boomer and Too Bad Millennials, Only One Generation Stands Out as Social Distancing Pros

BY COURTNEY DABNEY 03.26.20




The original generation of "gamers" we have a high tolerance for boredom.
We ate entire boxes of cereal just to get to the prize inside.
Generation X has been training for this our entire lives. It's our time to shine.
Long lines don't bother Gen Xers.

Generation X has been training for this our entire lives. It's our time to shine.
The Baby Boomers were born to the Greatest Generation. They have changed nearly every aspect of society ― by their sheer numbers and their dominant influence. And Millennials have captivated attention for the past two decades ― they demand to be seen and heard.

But there’s something missing — that forgotten generation, sandwiched in between the Boomers and Millennials.

What are they called again? Anyone, anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?!


A few months ago when the phrase “OK Boomer” really took off, my own teenagers tried a few times to pin it on me. In an attempt to completely dismiss me, they would laugh and say “OK Boomer” with that presumptuous eyeroll.

Those cherubs got a quick lesson in the wonders of being a Gen Xer.

There are roughly 65 million of us ― but we are easy enough to overlook. Generation X is generally accepted to have been born in that sliver of time between 1965 and 1980. What my teens didn’t know was that my entire generation has been dismissed from day one, and what’s more we don’t really care.

It seems that it has taken a global pandemic for anyone to sing our praises ― to even call us by name. All of the sudden folks are impressed by our remarkable resilience, our ability to entertain ourselves for hours on end and our willingness to shelter in place without whining.

All hail the forgotten generation ― we’re finally getting the recognition that we deserve.

Gen X folks can actually thrive on solitude and enjoy their downtime, due to our advanced tolerance for boredom. We spent untold hours alone in our homes after school, fending for ourselves, living off Ding-Dongs and macaroni and cheese, as the first generation of latchkey kids.

Social isolation is not only tolerable for us, Gen X requires a regular dose of it to recharge our batteries. So while you might already be flipping out, we are basking in the down time.

We once focused all our attention on making mix tapes. Some of our best products took the entire weekend to create. Now that’s dedication. My first stereo had an 8-track player as well as dual cassettes for just that purpose. In fact, music and fashion are what really bind us together. Our music, while overly synthesized, remains gloriously unfaded. Our fashion choices, however, were tragic and I’m not going to make any excuses for those.

Generation Xers are generally pragmatic, independent and resourceful. We don’t require a lot of hand holding. As Cold War kiddos, our duck and cover drills had more purpose. They were not only to prepare for a possibility of a tornado ― we also needed to identify our nearest nuclear fallout shelter. . . you know, just in case.

Waiting in lines is no problem for us. We spent plenty of time chillin’ in the back of a station wagon or suburban (long before seat belt laws went into effect), waiting in those endless gas lines with our parents in the late-seventies. We cued to up in lines that snaked through parking lots, and around buildings, just to score tickets to Star Wars and The Empire Strikes Back.

Gen Xers have limited expectations too. We were completely satisfied to play with our Pet Rocks (which was literally just a rock), or the world’s first video game, Pong (literally a dot on the screen, moving between two cursors). The first generation of “gamers” we cut our teeth on joystick games like Frogger, Pac Man and Galaga. In other words, we are pretty easily entertained.


We took Polaroid pictures and waved them in the air while we patiently waited for them to develop. Our mood ring always read relaxed. Our Magic 8-ball always replied “don’t count on it” ― and so we didn’t.

There were only about three hours of television programming devoted to us, and if you missed it. . . you simply missed it for the week. Generation X was firmly planted in front of the television for the Bugs Bunny Road Runner hour every Saturday morning, followed by The Wonderful World of Disney and Mutual of Omaha’s Wild Kingdom every Sunday night. Beyond that we had to make do with 1960s reruns of Scooby Doo, Speed Racer, Gilligan’s Island, Bewitched and I Dream of Jeanie. But, you never heard us complain.

Gen Xers were mesmerized when MTV launched. We pretty much watched “Video Killed the Radio Star” on a loop for months without blinking, and were never annoyed.

In the build up to the current coronavirus pandemic stay at home directives, while you were busy getting in fist fights over toilet paper and bread, Gen X shoppers were quietly stocking up on Pop Tarts, SpaghettiOs and powdered drink mixes. We’ll be just fine. We used to eat entire boxes of sugary cereal, just to get to the prize at the bottom.

So when faced with the prospect of sheltering in place for an unspecified number of weeks, Generation X knows for sure that we got this. Heck, we’ve been training for a moment like this all our lives.

It might feel like “the end of the world as we know it” ― but Generation X feels fine. We have instantly become our nation’s unsung heroes. So watch and learn people, watch and learn.