(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

New bird flew in Hunan China

New bird flew in Hunan China

Food riots in 4, 3, 2, 1...

Originally Posted by Averageman

14,499 confirmed, 19,544 suspected, but not confirmed cases, 302 confirmed cases dead from the virus, 342 recovered.
The video claims China is cracking down on reporting and that there are no more test kits available. If you have Corona virus and die from complications due to pneumonia, it is not counted as a corona virus death.
India is in trouble if the virus spreads at the same rate it did in China, they may have a month before it peaks if it follows the Chinese model.

You know if you just look at the official dead/recovered rate that's like a 40+ % mortality rate, considering the deaths are being downplayed methinks the real story is yet to be written.

Originally Posted by mack7.62

You know if you just look at the official dead/recovered rate that's like a 40+ % mortality rate, considering the deaths are being downplayed methinks the real story is yet to be written.

We have to stick to real math here.

Infected = 14499
Dead = 302
Mortality Rate = 2.08%

You need to double the deaths and add a zero at the end to get to 40%.

Originally Posted by mack7.62

You know if you just look at the official dead/recovered rate that's like a 40+ % mortality rate, considering the deaths are being downplayed methinks the real story is yet to be written.

It does support the rumour that the dead are being taken to the basements of the hospital and cremated.
There was some talk about the virus living for a time in fecal matter, if so, India which has less ability to deal with sewage and lower hygiene standards is in for a bad time.

Originally Posted by _Stormin_

We have to stick to real math here.

Infected = 14499
Dead = 302
Mortality Rate = 2.08%

You need to double the deaths and add a zero at the end to get to 40%.

You arent using the right numbers the total deaths compared to recoveries is currently at 305 dead to 443 recovered. Thats a pretty poor prognosis.

Instead of % I should have said ratio, and yeah 305 to 443 is a pretty bad ratio, how many of those 14,499 are yet to die? The guy in the Philippines that died they thought he was doing better when he crashed. I am beginning to think that 2% death rate might be bogus, unless a lot more people start getting well and that recovery ratio improves.

Originally Posted by mack7.62

Instead of % I should have said ratio, and yeah 305 to 443 is a pretty bad ratio, how many of those 14,499 are yet to die? The guy in the Philippines that died they thought he was doing better when he crashed. I am beginning to think that 2% death rate might be bogus, unless a lot more people start getting well and that recovery ratio improves.

I am going to find myself in an internet fight here, but...

The ratio of recovered to infected is based on fully PCR’ed cases, which is a BSL-3 level lab task to determine. It also effectively dependent on end of virus in the body or hospital discharge. Those numbers ignore (1) Ill persons who never went to the hospital and (2) untested people who
May have been hospitalized but were discharged without a confirmed lab test. The lab tests are the long tent pole here, as the ability to confirm in the middle of seasonal influenza is a major limiting factor.

Unless I missed your reference to a MPH, DO or MD, the bogus part is trying to speak to simple health metrics without a clue on how they are developed. There are going to tens of thousands people who get medical attention and whom recover that will never have the confirmatory lab tests to fit into the diagnosis. I am none too confident in the Chinese reporting, but the data available is simply not contradicting a 2% fatality rate.

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