(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

Originally Posted by yoni

I am slowly changing my mind on the government response, the cure might be more deadly than the virus.

The models that they rolled out showed worse case was 2.5 million dead, so if that is a base point we can work from there.

They said today the model based on what is happening in the USA now they are saying 92k dead. Which is down from 100 to 250k at the start of the week.

But if we kill the economy and it takes 10 years to come back how many dead will that cause?

Absolute worst case scenario in the USA would have been about 100-600K. With 100% exposed/infected in a four month period. Which is impossible. Including and considering various resource overwhelming peaks regionally. Which are only over resources because of futile end of life care not available in shithole countries, only available by prepay in most countries, available but not performed in other first world countries, but routinely practiced in the USA. With greater than 98% of deaths from from those that would have died at about the same time or within 12 months and mostly significantly less than that from baseline end of life disease processes. And 2% outliers/unexpected. Just like some otherwise healthy people die of RSV, flu, strep, mono, chicken pox, etc. every year.

These are numbers I am sticking with and staying stable with updates since my initial eval. From a guy that waltzed into rooms full of nominative position big heads at a national contingency force level with hours of contingency evaluation knocked and instantly assessed and laid out the maximum benefit to resource ratio option instantly for nearly a decade.

We will come out of this medically. It will flit around indolent despite any vaccine or treatment development and rack up 25-75k each year much like flu, etc.

Guys 65 to 75 who planned on retiring this year after decades of blood, sweat, and tears are ****ed. For years. Guys at the start of a productive life for their family are ****ed. For years. Decades of sweat in small businesses have been shed for naught. Family farms and small businesses with generations at their foundations have become flotsam and jetsam on a raging see of ratings, attention, political agendas, selfishness, and fear. Teens and young adults find their lives, futures, and education in limbo and uncertainty.

Unless Thor himself lands on a bolt of lighting, kicks Jesus in the balls and tells him to get with the program, lets him hammer fly at the obvious, tell Michael to fire up the sword and Gabriel to warm up on the trumpet, and nods to Tyr skulking in the back to sneak of and do the really dirty work while Ares makes some very visible and effective distractions, this is one hell of a hole to ever get out of.

Originally Posted by kwelz

Not really. This is how deaths due to diseases are done.
Take AIDS. You don't necessarily die of AIDS. You die of otherwise easily defeatable diseases or viruses that it makes you susceptible too.
COVID 19 weakens the body to a drastic extent, making it easy for other things to swoop in and push you over the top.

Saying COVID19 didn't kill someone is like saying the bullet didn't kill someone, it was the internal bleeding that did it.

This is completely, 100% ass backwards.

The 47 year old IV drug abusing, non compliant dialysis patient with history of cardiac stents, stroke, heart failure, multiple PID, multiple abscesses, HIV, and Hep C who shows up septic with septic emboli and bacterial endocarditis who is also COVID positive did not die because of C19.

The 87 year old bedridden dementia patient from a nursing home non verbal with urosepsis from lying in their shit and urine soaked diapers everyday who became C19 positive from the ER and ICU physicians who had intubated, central lined, A lined, etc. him after touching other patients did not die because of C19.

That's like saying the guy who got shit faced while pounding Wild Turkey 101 and smoking crack and smashed his helmetless head against the pavement while doing 120 mph on his Ninja died from broken ankle and road rash.

Originally Posted by ramairthree

Absolute worst case scenario in the USA would have been about 100-600K. With 100% exposed/infected in a four month period. Which is impossible. Including and considering various resource overwhelming peaks regionally. Which are only over resources because of futile end of life care not available in shithole countries, only available by prepay in most countries, available but not performed in other first world countries, but routinely practiced in the USA. With greater than 98% of deaths from from those that would have died at about the same time or within 12 months and mostly significantly less than that from baseline end of life disease processes. And 2% outliers/unexpected. Just like some otherwise healthy people die of RSV, flu, strep, mono, chicken pox, etc. every year.

These are numbers I am sticking with and staying stable with updates since my initial eval. From a guy that waltzed into rooms full of nominative position big heads at a national contingency force level with hours of contingency evaluation knocked and instantly assessed and laid out the maximum benefit to resource ratio option instantly for nearly a decade.

We will come out of this medically. It will flit around indolent despite any vaccine or treatment development and rack up 25-75k each year much like flu, etc.

Guys 65 to 75 who planned on retiring this year after decades of blood, sweat, and tears are ****ed. For years. Guys at the start of a productive life for their family are ****ed. For years. Decades of sweat in small businesses have been shed for naught. Family farms and small businesses with generations at their foundations have become flotsam and jetsam on a raging see of ratings, attention, political agendas, selfishness, and fear. Teens and young adults find their lives, futures, and education in limbo and uncertainty.

Unless Thor himself lands on a bolt of lighting, kicks Jesus in the balls and tells him to get with the program, lets him hammer fly at the obvious, tell Michael to fire up the sword and Gabriel to warm up on the trumpet, and nods to Tyr skulking in the back to sneak of and do the really dirty work while Ares makes some very visible and effective distractions, this is one hell of a hole to ever get out of.

Pretty much my analysis. After decades of being an honest man, building a multi-faceted business, and two years into training my son to take over as a third generation owner, I'm looking at most likely working the rest of my life. At this point, I can't even estimate how big my losses are going to be. I'll likely have to spend all the real estate equity I have spent building the last 20 years and maybe more. I'll likely lose my investment property and second business that was to be my retirement.

In most down turns, my tourist town has done well. If the world economy was poor we still had international visitors. In international down turns we had American visitors. We've always been lucky that there was a customer from somewhere. This COVID thing is going to break people world wide, and tourism is going to go down with it. The second kick in the balls is the drop in oil prices. This is my second biggest influence on my business. Layoffs in the oil fields hurt me deeply.

Oh well, I'm a persistent MF'er and I won't go down easily. I'm still moving forward based on my current sales numbers, which are still fairly brisk. The bottom is going to drop out on me in about 90 days. I'm rubbing the shit out of my crystal ball to predict where I should strengthen my business to react to the impending crash.

It's F'n stressful...

Originally Posted by kwelz

Not really. This is how deaths due to diseases are done.
Take AIDS. You don't necessarily die of AIDS. You die of otherwise easily defeatable diseases or viruses that it makes you susceptible too.
COVID 19 weakens the body to a drastic extent, making it easy for other things to swoop in and push you over the top.

Saying COVID19 didn't kill someone is like saying the bullet didn't kill someone, it was the internal bleeding that did it.

Well, since my wife is the expert I'm reticent to reply but data accuracy is important and thus the cause of death is critical to having accurate data. Poor/dirty data will hamper our AARs and hinder our ability to learn from this event.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Data sucks, information is hard to find, and insight is rarely fully supported.

Originally Posted by FromMyColdDeadHand

Data sucks, information is hard to find, and insight is rarely fully supported.

CDC data is shite.

Testing is not done on the vast majority of discharged patients.

Testing was not done on many admitted patients under contact criteria.

Testing was not done on many admitted patients with existing other explanations for their chest pain, shortness of breath, fever, etc.

When testing WAS done, seriously ill patients were unable to provide information for the three page CDC interview questionnaire.

No physician has time to hunt down pages of questions with friends and family to do so while kicking ass and taking names in the ICU or ER.

Even when seeing a patient fully with it mentally, no physician kicking ass and taking names in the ICU or ER has time to do so in order to order a lab test. They are going to scribble in some shit and check a couple of boxes and toss the papers to someone to fax in.

It’s like asking a Daytona 500 driver to fill out a three page form for each gallon of fuel and tire changed at a pit stop.

People are used to complete solutions to problems in one 60 min episode. We learn on math problems where we use all the numbers we are given, and they are solvable.

That ain't life. We all know that. Big Data doesn't solve that, AI can't figure it out, and experts know so much that they have a hard time giving useful guidance because they are overwhelmed by the complexity.

My company does it all the time, come to a decision point and if there is any way to do it, we punt until we get more data, which always leads to needing more data.

That is why the major failing in my MBA program was that you can data analyze your way out of anything. BRzzzt, wrong answer. You have to make a decision based on less data you want, with 30% of the data either wrong or skewed, and 40% missing. That is how leaders and winners are made. You make decisions based on what you got, and the good ones have a sixth-sense for parsing out everything and seeing the answer- when most other people just see fog.

I have to say that Trump is the master at that. He makes decisions. Put something in front of him, or put him in front of something, and he King Solomon the shit out of it.

Originally Posted by FromMyColdDeadHand

You have to make a decision based on less data you want, with 30% of the data either wrong or skewed, and 40% missing. That is how leaders and winners are made. You make decisions based on what you got, and the good ones have a sixth-sense for parsing out everything and seeing the answer- when most other people just see fog.

I've always heard it put as "don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good". Or, Analysis Paralysis.

Originally Posted by kwelz

It is because people wear them wrong. Gloves are supposed to be discarded as soon as you are done handling something.

An example, a friend of mine saw a woman wearing gloves while simultaneously pumping gas and eating chips this week.

I’m so tired of bad news. I’m fear porn exhausted.