(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

Originally Posted by pinzgauer

Models get more accurate over time with more data and less uncertainty.

Have you never had to interpret hurricane "cone of uncertainty" or similar?

Of course. The difference is that everyone, especially the media, used the worst case and then some to sensationalize the “COVID crisis.”

Like using this track to put Tampa or all of Florida on complete evacuation and shelter in place orders. I mean, it could wipe out most of Florida. 500,000 dead and 5 million homeless. Totally plausible...

Why isn’t this thread showing in General anymore?

Folks, please view. I'd like to hear from med pros on this. My bio stats are too thin to really debate this one, but he's not alone in his thoughts on the matter and it's not like he lacks to creds for the position here. His last statement is "if people do not stand up for their rights, their rights will be forgotten."

Originally Posted by Vic79

Thank you chucky cheese for thanking me. Even though your reply was rather mundane for my taste.

If you are going full-tin foil, at least say something remotely substantive to back it up. Otherwise, you are playing Chicken Little, but wrapped in tin foil like a baked potato.

A lot of your assertions are not just wrong, but out of left field. If you want to use the thread to rant, preface it as such. Me and a handful of other subject matter experts are trying to use the thread to put out what we know, what we don't, and what we're trying to do.

Originally Posted by chuckman

If you are going full-tin foil, at least say something remotely substantive to back it up. Otherwise, you are playing Chicken Little, but wrapped in tin foil like a baked potato.

A lot of your assertions are not just wrong, but out of left field. If you want to use the thread to rant, preface it as such. Me and a handful of other subject matter experts are trying to use the thread to put out what we know, what we don't, and what we're trying to do.

Oh stop it Charles. If anything has become perfectly clear is the subject matter expert on this don’t have a clue. Why are they revising the death rate like every 2 to 3 days. You guys don’t have a clue. You never had a clue. It’s not as bad as all you do doomsdayer’s said. Get over yourself.
The SME made Decisions on bad and incomplete data. Then spun up the masses on misleading numbers. Junk in=junk out.

Originally Posted by prepare

Does anyone on here Know someone firsthand that has died from Covid 19?

I know three on ventilators as we speak.


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Originally Posted by Vic79

Oh stop it Charles. If anything has become perfectly clear is the subject matter expert on this don’t have a clue. Why are they revising the death rate like every 2 to 3 days. You guys don’t have a clue. You never had a clue. It’s not as bad as all you do doomsdayer’s said. Get over yourself.
The SME made Decisions on bad and incomplete data. Then spun up the masses on misleading numbers. Junk in=junk out.

I was going to say never mind, but no actually I will take this.

Please, show me a subject matter expert who is a clinician on this board who has misled the masses? Which of the clinicians on this board, on this form, are doomsdayers?

I get that you don't understand data, I understand that you don't know statistics, all of that is abundantly clear. I am sure you are a subject matter expert in your own right on something.

So how about this, instead of Monday morning quarterbacking people who are actually doing this for real, stick to your day job.

I would rather people say "thank you, I know this has been difficult trying to makes sense of all these numbers". I would rather people say nothing, actually.

Originally Posted by WillBrink

Folks, please view. I'd like to hear from med pros on this.

Will, I'm obviously not a med pro but a mile from home there is basically a test case going on that could sort of prove or dis-prove his theory on a small scale.

Look up Canterbury Rehab facility, ( richmond or henrico VA ). It accounts for now 50% of the deaths in all of VA. How long the situation will go on with respect to him saying it would have all been over in 4 weeks we don;t know yet.

Personally I don't trust anything that hits the Internet on 4/1 and especially if they talk like a Bond villain... but again that's not the science you are looking for.

But you might find some correlations in that rehab center. It's only 192 beds ( which I am not convinced all were filled ) with damn near the whole place infected and already 33 deaths. That's more than 2% by my math. I'm not totally clear what issues people have there but I think it's quite varied. I mean aside from Covid19.

Anyway, not sure if it gets reported in your area. Here's a local link. Others I've seen tell you figures for asymptomatic, residents, workers, etc.. Actually it's up to 35 dead now... running 2 to 4 a day now.

https://www.richmond.com/news/virgin...d16bab1cd.html

So if that is any sort of a model for a nationwide covid19fest.... I think I'll wait for the DVD.

I get what people are saying about short peak vs the longer flat curve but I haven't heard anyone say what might happen to the sharp peak if things turned out more deadly than expected. What if the peak became a square wave.

We have now two examples one in Washington and one in VA of what really happens in a contained environment and neither have been good. NewYork is sort of a similar situation imo.

Again, I'm just sitting in the bleachers but I would expect the pros will certainly look at these two places as some sort of data point. Some sort of "if we had" or "here's what could happen".

Maybe it's because they were all compromised in some manner but not all facilities like that are seeing similar results. Maybe it had to do with the care workers. So then figure a single mother of two. she gets a bad case, now two orphans... it just seems like the 'get it over with" method would put a massive strain on our health care system to the point it would be too risky as a nation. It's bad enough now.

Originally Posted by prepare

Does anyone on here Know someone firsthand that has died from Covid 19?

Yes, he was someone I have known for about 20years. He had other health issues though. Early 40’s, overweight, diabetic, hypertension.

Originally Posted by prepare

Why is it that nobody is looking into Vietnams shining example of only 251 cases and ZERO deaths?

Well, they're commies too and they did their part by infecting the sailors on the USS Roosevelt. Mission accomplished without a shot fired.....