(COVID/ETC CONTENT HERE) China Locks Down 11 Million in Wuhan,

Originally Posted by Mozart

My math says it’s 340x deadlier than flu. CDC says flu kills roughly 60,000 Americans annually. That’s 0.01% of the population. If coronavirus kills 3.4%, isn’t that 340x more?

Saw this post today:

Based on other countries timeline of events, here’s what I believe is in store for us short term:
In another 7-10 days (March 16th,) there will be over 1,000 confirmed cases in the U.S. By about 3 weeks from now (March 26th,) that number will be around 10,000. At that point, 3-4 weeks from now (April 1st,) you’ll start seeing state and federal orders to shut down schools and colleges, public transport, and maybe even private gatherings such as movie theaters. They’ll start doing what they should’ve been doing now, early March, a month late, around early April.

At that point, about 4-5 weeks from now (April 10th,) as schools close, people who haven’t adequately prepared themselves will flood stores. That’s when you’ll start seeing pandemonium at grocery stores, with packed parking lots, empty shelves and fist fights over a box of captain crunch. Some won’t be able to get more than a week or 2 of food and supplies. By weeks 5-7 from now (April 24th,) the economic effect of schools closing will start being felt, as many parents will stay away from work indefinitely, to stay home with their kids for many different reasons. Many businesses will have trouble keeping going with a skeleton staff.

I think major cities will be hit the hardest. Looking at the GIS map provided by Johns Hopkins it’s already looking to shape up that way.

The smart thing would be Nation wide for schools, universities, shopping malls, movie theaters, etc. to close now for a couple weeks with a strong suggestion placed on avoiding crowds.

But we all know that won’t happen.




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Originally Posted by FromMyColdDeadHand

3% kill rate, even targeted at the 'right' people, isn't enough to fix society. We need to be getting of the 70s IQ people, not the 70year olds. Traffic is worse the last week if anything. When traffic dies down, then you know people are taking it seriously and staying home.

Starting to feel like child abductions and murders. Even though child abductions and murders are at an all time low, people think think the world is far more dangerous than it is.

Kids aren't getting it because most kids don't interact with other kids face2face, they all interact online.

Once a few kids pop positive, it'll rip through a school like wildfire. But healthy kids respond to it pretty well. Hell, most kids get a couple coronaviruses a year, take a day or two off, and go back. Just another virus.

This is a bit of weird area for me because while I am concerned about Corona, and think that it should be taken seriously, I am also not going to panic and cancel all plans over it. Towards the end of the month, I'll be traveling up to the Chicago area for a big gaming convention (AdeptiCon), and have had this planned since last May. If the worry worts are predicting things right, that's just about the time that Corona will start to become common in the US. That makes a big convention like AdeptiCon the perfect breeding grounds for a virus like Corona. To top it off, the game I'm playing, Star Wars: Legion, will be having its "Worlds" tournament, and I wouldn't be surprised to get people from, you guessed it, around the world. Since it is a gaming convention/tournament, not shaking hands will be awkward, and will likely depend on the individuals in question. Thankfully I won't be flying (I normally avoid airports like the plague even when there isn't a plague to avoid) so that angle is neutralized. Let's hope it really is "just the flu, bro" like the experts on here are saying.

I can’t help but wonder about the advances in hygiene and treatment since the Spanish flu. I can’t imagine that we haven’t been able to curtail a huge part of it by just understanding hygiene.

Originally Posted by MegademiC

A lot of options. How does methanol work?
How about H2O2? 3%?

Methanol is nasty stuff. The fumes alone can injure you. I'd rather take my odds with SARS-Covid19.

No idea if peroxide even affects a virus. But use enough and you can be blonde, so there's that.

Originally Posted by FromMyColdDeadHand

3% kill rate, even targeted at the 'right' people, isn't enough to fix society. We need to be getting of the 70s IQ people, not the 70year olds. Traffic is worse the last week if anything. When traffic dies down, then you know people are taking it seriously and staying home.

Starting to feel like child abductions and murders. Even though child abductions and murders are at an all time low, people think think the world is far more dangerous than it is.

Kids aren't getting it because most kids don't interact with other kids face2face, they all interact online.

Like people who refuse to fly but don't wear seat belts, humans don't do stats and facts well, just feelz.

Originally Posted by Business_Casual

I can’t help but wonder about the advances in hygiene and treatment since the Spanish flu. I can’t imagine that we haven’t been able to curtail a huge part of it by just understanding hygiene.

Spanish Flue was particularly devastating among younger, presumably more healthy people. Without advances in hygiene, I have to think the case fatality rate for this would be even higher. We don't even have a decent idea what the CFR is for this - anywhere from below 1% up to 3.5%. Unlike the Spanish Flu, this virus is seemingly disproportionately harder on the elderly and those with underlying conditions, as you would expect. As far as advances in treatment, there's really not much for this for those at the most risk - steroids, fluids, and general antivirals with little known efficacy against Covid-19. Those aren't going to do much in terms of changing outcomes.

In speaking with physicians, they believe that we're beyond the point of containment now with clusters showing up with no known previous contact with those infected. We are literally weeks away from testing protocols and facilities being overwhelmed to the point where they will presume you have the virus if you're symptomatic, just like in bad flu seasons. You'll be told to self-quarantine. When that starts happening and once this thing gets into hospitals and nursing homes (on a larger scale), you're going to see much more obvious ripple effects in our daily lives. This thing will spread and we will feel the effects and everyone needs to take that seriously. It's the first true pandemic we've faced in a modern, globalized society. Shutting schools at this point is unnecessary - we should be focusing on facilities that see the most at-risk demographics.

Is it the end of the world? No, but we need to take it seriously and stop downplaying the potential effects.

Originally Posted by WillBrink

Like people who refuse to fly but don't wear seat belts, humans don't do stats and facts well, just feelz.

That's typically not a statistics problem but a phobia.

I refuse to fly but couldn't care less if I was going 500mph on pavement. It's the hight.

Originally Posted by Mozart

My math says it’s 340x deadlier than flu. CDC says flu kills roughly 60,000 Americans annually. That’s 0.01% of the population. If coronavirus kills 3.4%, isn’t that 340x more?

Saw this post today:

Based on other countries timeline of events, here’s what I believe is in store for us short term:
In another 7-10 days (March 16th,) there will be over 1,000 confirmed cases in the U.S. By about 3 weeks from now (March 26th,) that number will be around 10,000. At that point, 3-4 weeks from now (April 1st,) you’ll start seeing state and federal orders to shut down schools and colleges, public transport, and maybe even private gatherings such as movie theaters. They’ll start doing what they should’ve been doing now, early March, a month late, around early April.

At that point, about 4-5 weeks from now (April 10th,) as schools close, people who haven’t adequately prepared themselves will flood stores. That’s when you’ll start seeing pandemonium at grocery stores, with packed parking lots, empty shelves and fist fights over a box of captain crunch. Some won’t be able to get more than a week or 2 of food and supplies. By weeks 5-7 from now (April 24th,) the economic effect of schools closing will start being felt, as many parents will stay away from work indefinitely, to stay home with their kids for many different reasons. Many businesses will have trouble keeping going with a skeleton staff.

You are mixing up your statistics to get false results. You can't take the whole population of the US and divide into flu deaths to get a percentage. Not all the population got the flu, so the mortality percentage rate is in error. Also, another factor that many are not taking into account is during a pandemic, mortality rates are higher than normal due to the circumstances of infecting a higher percentage of more vulnerable people.

Also, a global mortality rate for the most part will always be higher than the US mortality rate due to more advanced healthcare vs. the places that don't which are factored into the worldwide equation.

Originally Posted by Alpha-17

This is a bit of weird area for me because while I am concerned about Corona, and think that it should be taken seriously, I am also not going to panic and cancel all plans over it. Towards the end of the month, I'll be traveling up to the Chicago area for a big gaming convention (AdeptiCon), and have had this planned since last May. If the worry worts are predicting things right, that's just about the time that Corona will start to become common in the US. That makes a big convention like AdeptiCon the perfect breeding grounds for a virus like Corona. To top it off, the game I'm playing, Star Wars: Legion, will be having its "Worlds" tournament, and I wouldn't be surprised to get people from, you guessed it, around the world. Since it is a gaming convention/tournament, not shaking hands will be awkward, and will likely depend on the individuals in question. Thankfully I won't be flying (I normally avoid airports like the plague even when there isn't a plague to avoid) so that angle is neutralized. Let's hope it really is "just the flu, bro" like the experts on here are saying.

Two major shows I was going to attend, Expo West and The Arnold Classic, cancelled, and that's just so well before it's wide spread in the US. I'd think high likelihood of that one being cancelled too. Truth be told, I was actually a little relieved they were cancelled, even if I thought it was an overreaction to it. Just make sure you have refundable options where you can.