2020 Election Thread

[Averageman]

Just remember the polls in 2016, Klinton was a sure thing.......Polls are no longer effective and the pollsters know it. This is all part of the setup. I refuse to believe this country is stupid enough to elect someone as bad as the Dem ticket.

VOTE!

This election may be the end of polling.

[chuckman]

This election may be the end of polling.

Ironically, Frank Luntz (I say 'ironically' because some of his polling has been dem-heavy for oversampling, and he has a personal relationship with the Bidens) said much the same.

Regarding what polling is doing, you need to reverse engineer it. What is the goal to purposely manipulate the data/methodology or conclusions? To make people think it's a done-deal and dissuade GOP turnout? If Trump wins, to endorse the narrative it is an illegitimate win? I think both of those are plausible. The good polling with include the methodology and statistical software and theoretically you can run the same thing a dozen times and be within the MOE. The problem with a lot of polling is in the design, sampling, and analysis; then drawing conclusions. We see this every day with weather predictions.

So if Trump wins, what are the questions to fix polling? Probably in the design. Can't really change how customers interpret conclusions. But human nature is human nature; if Republicans really are not reporting the truth or are 'shy' respondents, the design really isn't going to change that.

Here is what is giving me a little warm fuzzy: If the polls are tightening, and we know that early voting favors the democrats and in-person voting favors republicans, then Tuesday's in-person may be enough to push Trump across the finish line.

[glocktogo]

This election may be the end of polling.

Good, then drive a stake in it, launch it into orbit and nuke it. Especially the election day polling, sampling and predictions designed to make people not bother voting later in the day.

[glocktogo]

Yet, on CNN you read articles about "This is how they will turn Texas blue" and other such drivel. I had to spend ten minutes explaining to my dad why Texas isn't going to flip this election especially with Biden's flipflopping on the fossil fuel industry comments. He really screwed himself and you end up with things like this:

https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/ch...ga-tx-wi-more/

Basically after the debates, the largest trends on Google (which they can't ignore) were "can I change my vote" with significant trends in so called "toss up" states along with those with manufacturing presence. Now, are they going to change to Trump? Data doesn't tell that. But after the debate, it was trending enough to make it number one on their list.

When he started talking about how terrible the oil industry was for Houston residents, he lost any hope of getting Texas.

[chuckman]

Good, then drive a stake in it, launch it into orbit and nuke it. Especially the election day polling, sampling and predictions designed to make people not bother voting later in the day.

We've only seen this, what, a million times? Bush almost lost because of it...exit polls at 3% calling entire districts and states... there's no 'sampling' in that, it's just "hey, who did you vote for?". I loathe exit polls.

[teufelhund1918]

This is hilarious! I wonder what else the Ruskis have on the Bidens. They are certainly going to hold back in case Biden wins and they can use the info to manipulate him... for the 3-6 months that he is in office anyway.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/202...ans-hollywood/

[Averageman]

Google search of the day?
"How do I change my Vote?"

[chuckman]

Google search of the day?
"How do I change my Vote?"

Honestly I did not even know this was a thing you could do....

[flenna]

Google search of the day?
"How do I change my Vote?"

Another reason I dislike “early voting”.

[Averageman]

Another reason I dislike “early voting”.

I agree, but I could understand someone's "Karen" like anguish over mailing in a ballot for Biden and then finding out he's going to destroy the United States, Pack the SCOTUS , shut down the oil industry and require her 14 year old Daughter to go hang out with Hunter for a three day weekend.