On the current AR market...

[Slater]

Presumably, market saturation is one of the principle causes for the reported discontinuing of the Bushmaster and DPMS brands. Everyone that wants an AR (whether expensive or budget) probably has one... or two...or three.

From the higher-end brands such as LMT, Knight's, Daniel Defense, and BCM to the mid- to lower tier which is Spike's, Ruger, Smith & Wesson, Stag, Armalite, Rock River, Windham Weaponry, Diamondback, Del-Ton, and others, kind of makes you wonder if any other brands will fall by the wayside?

PSA seems to sell a metric assload of AR's and components, so I'm guessing they're in reasonably good health.

[mark5pt56]

Operating cost will be one factor, evident with the history of layoffs with one big name. Diversity may help with some if they are able to branch off with accessories and other platforms.

[BoringGuy45]

I think one of the big differences between the upper and lower tier ARs is that the upper tier companies have some uniqueness, however subtle, between them. Guys who know ARs are much more specific about what they want, and so they often more picky about the differences between various brands. The lower tiers are usually bare bones and there's little to distinguish one from the other other than the rollmark.

I'm thinking that, eventually, the lower tier ARs are going to be reduced to S&W, Ruger, and possibly Windham or Rock River.

[SomeOtherGuy]

From the higher-end brands such as LMT, Knight's, Daniel Defense, and BCM

LMT and KAC get lots of government/military contracts and likely would do fine even if there were no civilian sales. They also engineer meaningful improvements. Don't see them going anywhere.

DD grew fast and took out loans to do so, but is wisely diversifying into bolt action, a seemingly good proprietary .308 platform AR, and other products. I assume they get at least a few govt contracts as well.

BCM, along with the not listed Sionics, Centurion Arms, Noveske, and probably 1-3 others I can't think of, offer great products but don't seem to have the breadth or govt contracts. BCM makes good accessories and along with its website would probably be fine selling everything but legally-regulated firearms, just as they were doing in the not too distant past* when they built their great reputation on uppers and BCGs.

* "get off my lawn, kids"

to the mid- to lower tier which is Spike's, Ruger, Smith & Wesson, Stag, Armalite, Rock River, Windham Weaponry, Diamondback, Del-Ton, and others, kind of makes you wonder if any other brands will fall by the wayside?

I'll add CMMG to that list also. Ruger is likely to be around forever, even if they are one day reduced to selling "Joe Biden Edition" break-barrel shotguns and belt buckles. They entered ARs very late, it's a value leader for them, but somehow they keep selling Mini-14s too so they seem stable. S&W can probably survive on handgun sales if they don't mess up really bad. A lot of the rest of that list looks vulnerable to me. It's more likely to come down to marketing and financing than to minor differences in quality or features.

PSA seems to sell a metric assload of AR's and components, so I'm guessing they're in reasonably good health.

Lots of companies sell quantities cheaply when they are desperate for cash flow. However, since PSA is developing more and more of its own non-AR platforms, I'm going to assume PSA is stable.

tl;dr: there's going to be a shakeout over the next few years, and I would avoid any proprietary designs like I avoid nCov19. If the company is following standard dimensional specs then you should be able to mix and match wear or replacement parts as needed.

[Slater]

I note that UTG Leapers, which I normally associate with bargain-basement Airsoft stuff, is trying to break into the AR accessories market.

[Sry0fcr]

The casual gun owners and 50rnds/yr Fudds that make up the majority of the market are notoriously cheap. The PSA and Anderson's of the world will keep them well stocked in $500 guns. Guys that are a bit more discerning will keep the higher end "boutique" makers afloat because they'll have the margins to balance out the lower volume. I think that the middle market makers are going to be the one's to get squeezed. Anyone making a "basic" $700-$1K rifle will have their work cut out for them if they don't have government/LE contracts.

[mack7.62]

I would add Geissele to the watch list, IMO they are biting off too much too fast, in house hammer forged barrels don't come cheap and is there really a need for another mid range LPVO? I don't think they will go belly up, their military and LE contracts will help, but their return for investment might take quite a while to go positive.

[Sry0fcr]

I would add Geissele to the watch list, IMO they are biting off too much too fast, in house hammer forged barrels don't come cheap and is there really a need for another mid range LPVO? I don't think they will go belly up, their military and LE contracts will help, but their return for investment might take quite a while to go positive.

I think Bill mentioned that they have 100+(!) machines in one of the SHOT show videos. They have to be doing OEM work which should support his science projects.