And To Think...We Used To Make Fun Of Russia For Empty Shelves At The Store...

[SteyrAUG]

Thankfully things are gradually improving, grocery stores now have food and even food you are looking for from time to time, but you have to really have a plan to be able to walk in and buy toilet paper.

I think back to the 70s and how we were shown pictures of long ass lines for whatever kind of food the store happened to have at the time in the Soviet Union. I understand panic buyers are the cause, but seriously are we saying Charmin can't handle any kind of demand?

You would think this would be a dream come true for a company that has a never ending demand for their product. You would think ramping up production would be easy and what they have been waiting on all this time. Supply and demand should easily cover increased production even if that means round the clock shifts and additional production facilities no?

I bet if there were a similar, sudden demand for printer paper, paper mills would spring up like weeds in your yard. So how did we actually come to this? This isn't anything new, it is just the latest evolution of things like SARS and MERS. I get that they are trying not to crash the medical response systems in the country but I'm still mystified by the no toilet paper on the shelves thing.

And more importantly, if corona is so dangerous that people shouldn't go to work, to restaurants and things like that...how is everyone buying ALL the toilet paper? Seems to me that Wal Mart aisle would be like ground zero for most likely source of infection. Apparently EVERYONE has been there today.

[AKDoug]

My store was wiped out of TP two weeks ago. Long before any social distancing or shelter in place orders were given, we were out. I am also mystified why this is happening. My manager pulled two cases from back stock and has held them for my employees. Our warehouse is still out of TP, but our local Costco has PILES of TP available. As such, I told my purchasing lady to not overbuy on TP because there isn't going to be a need in the near future. Idiots that have made a run on TP most likely won't be buying more.

[SteyrAUG]

My store was wiped out of TP two weeks ago. Long before any social distancing or shelter in place orders were given, we were out. I am also mystified why this is happening. My manager pulled two cases from back stock and has held them for my employees. Our warehouse is still out of TP, but our local Costco has PILES of TP available. As such, I told my purchasing lady to not overbuy on TP because there isn't going to be a need in the near future. Idiots that have made a run on TP most likely won't be buying more.

I could sorta understand Alaska given that you guys are kind of off the grid for many "lower 48" produced items. But the whole thing is just weird.

If you had told me HK, Uzi, FAL "part kits" would one day be "the thing" I'd have called you crazy. Then they were the thing.

If you had told me the Obama scare would obliterate ammo stocks for a year and when ammo finally did come back prices for EVERYTHING would be doubled and would stay that way, I'd have called you crazy.

If you'd have told me that even after the sunset, Sandy Hook would drive the price of Pmags to $100, I'd have called you crazy.

I know that quality firearms will always be valuable firearms and I know junk / crap firearms will always be crap even if they ban them...but I'm always stunned by what people decide is going to be the next "unobtanium item" and now it's freaking toilet paper.

I have 10,000 plus round of 5.56, way more than a few 100 AR mags, but I can't simply walk into any store at any time and grab a giant multi pack of TP. It's amazing.

Also people aren't panicking hard enough, they need to get those ARs and Pmags off of the market before the official "pre election" panic buy sets in. I need to let several Pmags go and I'd like them to be moving at $100 per mag. I missed the boat on the Sandy Hook panic and didn't move fast enough.

[Mauser KAR98K]

The difference between us and the Soviets is that their shelves never returned to being remotely stocked. Ours evidently will and in short order.

[AKDoug]

I still have the pile of PMags and aluminum BCM mags I bought in preparation for the 2016 election. I lost that gamble, but I still have my inventory.

[uffdaphil]

This is serendipity. About 10 days before the TP panic hit I signed up for Amazon Prime. I always hate buying TP at the grocery as the large package usually means an extra trip to the garage to lug it in. So I bought a case of 72 rolls for $3 less delivered than the grocery.

Since I live alone and had a couple dozen rolls already I’m set for a year or more. Or was until I hit on thanking the letter carrier and UPS guy who lugs my ammo with 12 packs of TP. They DO appreciate it more than the bag of candy I occasionally hand out.

[26 Inf]

Or was until I hit on thanking the letter carrier and UPS guy who lugs my ammo with 12 packs of TP. They DO appreciate it more than the bag of candy I occasionally hand out.

Nice gesture!

[Straight Shooter]

I still have the pile of PMags and aluminum BCM mags I bought in preparation for the 2016 election. I lost that gamble, but I still have my inventory.

Dont cash in your chips yet..I dont think youve "lost" nothing, yet.

[SteyrAUG]

The difference between us and the Soviets is that their shelves never returned to being remotely stocked. Ours evidently will and in short order.

I know, but it's still an "odd moment" in the history of our country and one we were never intended to experience if you believe all the social indoctrination we received growing up. I mean how many aircraft carriers did we crank out in two years after Pearl Harbor? You saying we couldn't do that with toilet paper?

I still have the pile of PMags and aluminum BCM mags I bought in preparation for the 2016 election. I lost that gamble, but I still have my inventory.

Yeah, it's win / win. I will either sell them at prices that are insane or I will continue to have the largest pile of Pmags in my zip code. I'm good either way.

[Wildcat]

You would think this would be a dream come true for a company that has a never ending demand for their product. You would think ramping up production would be easy and what they have been waiting on all this time. Supply and demand should easily cover increased production even if that means round the clock shifts and additional production facilities no?

I bet if there were a similar, sudden demand for printer paper, paper mills would spring up like weeds in your yard. So how did we actually come to this? This isn't anything new, it is just the latest evolution of things like SARS and MERS. I get that they are trying not to crash the medical response systems in the country but I'm still mystified by the no toilet paper on the shelves thing.

Not sure how easy it would be. Particularly these days when all the forecasting for demand is carefully scrutinized and then processed by efficiency experts.

The whole supply chain is geared toward the established demand. Not just the factories and staff but the transport system also. We saw the same effect when there was a run on ammo.

First there is a lag between the demand spike and the increased output. While that happens, the well is dry.
Then there is an assessment of the true demand which is not really represented by the spike. If there is truly a significant increase in demand, that might justify adding new equipment and hiring more people to run it. That takes time to assess and then to build more stuff; which takes more time.
If the sudden demand is an anomaly, you can ramp up a bit and call on whatever reserve /excess capacity the system has, (assuming it isn't going 24/7 already) to catch up with today's needs but this is a temporary solution to deal with the surge. Sometimes ways can be found to boost the output of existing equipment but even that takes time. Factory managers are usually encouraged to do this anyway so don't expect an epiphany greater than 5%.
Its a little early to be investing in more machinery and training extra shifts for what is likely a momentary demand fluctuation.

They could cut corners. It could be less per package to be able to distribute the same capacity to more customers, or it could be a component change that reduces tooling changeover (changing = machine downtime - so guess where small primer 45ACP came from).

We don't even know where the bottleneck is in the system: raw materials, production, transport or distribution.