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Thread: Covid 19 Sci/med discussions only

  1. #371
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vic79 View Post
    Obviously coronavirus is not a total hoax. But I’m also not crapping my pants over something that has a 99.5% survival rate.
    Also getting pretty sick of hearing people push everyone must wear mask. Social distance and whatever. I’m responsible for me, you be responsible for you.
    The actual mortality rate is unknown and will remain unknown for a while to come and will continue to move around. I suspect it well be a year or more of massive data crunching before it's known to a accuracy of value. I'm not putting a lot stock on that one right now, but what I do know is as any med pro working boots on the ground dealing with it will tell you, it's not "just the flu."

    So, the unknowns, which are reducing rapidly, but plenty remain, behoove us to move cautiously but in a forward direction as (1) more is now known (2) med system much better prepared to handle it (3) secondary effects on issues like economy, depression, etc, can't get ignored or excluded from big picture decision making.
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  2. #372
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    Quote Originally Posted by WillBrink View Post
    The actual mortality rate is unknown and will remain unknown for a while to come and will continue to move around. I suspect it well be a year or more of massive data crunching before it's known to a accuracy of value. I'm not putting a lot stock on that one right now, but what I do know is as any med pro working boots on the ground dealing with it will tell you, it's not "just the flu."

    So, the unknowns, which are reducing rapidly, but plenty remain, behoove us to move cautiously but in a forward direction as (1) more is now known (2) med system much better prepared to handle it (3) secondary effects on issues like economy, depression, etc, can't get ignored or excluded from big picture decision making.
    I wish many would not have put a lot of stock into the 4-5% death rate that we got beat over the head with that states used to force shut downs. Remember that? Pepperidge Farm remembers. I disagree on us working through the unknowns.To put it simply I don’t think we knew shit two months ago and I don’t think we really know shit now.
    The medical system is doing fine. Obviously there’s a lag in between the increase in infection rates and death rates but we’re doing fine.
    On your third point there again it would’ve been nice if the decision makers would’ve considered this on the first knee-jerk reaction they had to this. The problem now is most people are over this. Could give a shit less. And have more of a distrust of the government now more than ever.
    And then you have bullshit like this directly from the CDC‘s website. They add antibody test positive cases to the total but on their own website it states this,
    “A positive test result shows you may have antibodies from an infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. However, there is a chance a positive result means that you have antibodies from an infection with a virus from the same family of viruses (called coronaviruses), such as the one that causes the common cold.”
    Plus you have how many states adding presume numbers to the total count. I mean **** it if we think we’re short on deaths let’s just add a few thousand, what does it really matter right?
    This has been a cluster**** at the federal,state, and some local levels. Luckily I live out in no mans land where queen Laura Kelly’s orders have been largely ignored.

  3. #373
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    Covid 19 Sci/med discussions only

    If it wasn’t an election year nobody would have cared or atleast not to the point they have.

    Also just because lol





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    Last edited by jpmuscle; 07-02-20 at 21:25.

  4. #374
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    Just out via The Lancet:

    Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes COVID-19 and is spread person-to-person through close contact. We aimed to investigate the effects of physical distance, face masks, and eye protection on virus transmission in health-care and non-health-care (eg, community) settings.

    Full paper:

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...142-9/fulltext
    - Will

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    “Those who do not view armed self defense as a basic human right, ignore the mass graves of those who died on their knees at the hands of tyrants.”

  5. #375
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    Reading Will’s link above (summary is in the initial paragraphs) it appears face masks and eyewear are similar and both have low effective certainty. Physical distancing of 40” or more has at least moderate effective certainty.

    That’s my beef with masks: creates a psychological level of safety that isn’t there.

  6. #376
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    The way I understood it with regards to the masks is the opposite

  7. #377
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    Washington University recently released a study suggesting that public mask wearing in Tennessee was among the lowest in the country, estimating 15%.

    Tennessee has a population of 7 million with large population centers.

    Deaths 7 days:
    7/4 - 4
    7/3 - 13
    7/2 - 11
    7/1 - 5
    6/30 - 12
    6/29 - 0
    6/28 - 8


    Average about 7+ per day (about the same since day-one of the outbreak). At this rate we'll all be dead in about a million days = 2,700 years. Where's my mask!

    Seriously... the world is not ending. Turn off the TV and take reasonable precautions for your level of risk. The virus is going to spread, that's what viruses do. Herd immunity will do what it does. Government policy has a lot less influence on this virus than they want you to believe, and they want a lot more control over you than many wish to believe.
    Last edited by ChattanoogaPhil; 07-07-20 at 10:21.

  8. #378
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChattanoogaPhil View Post
    Washington University recently released a study suggesting that public mask wearing in Tennessee was among the lowest in the country, estimating 15%.

    Tennessee has a population of 7 million with large population centers.

    Deaths 7 days:
    7/4 - 4
    7/3 - 13
    7/2 - 11
    7/1 - 5
    6/30 - 12
    6/29 - 0
    6/28 - 8


    Average about 7+ per day. At this rate we'll all be dead in about a million days = 2,700 years. Where's my mask!

    Seriously... the world is not ending. Turn off the TV and take reasonable precautions for your level of risk. The virus is going to spread, that's what viruses do. Herd immunity will do what it does. Government policy has a lot less influence on this virus than they want you to believe, and they want a lot more control over you than many wish to believe.
    Herd immunity is essentially impossible without a vaccine or mutation that is largely asymptomatic and spreads more than the other strains. It would likely take years to accomplish and that’s assuming you retain immunity which is currently unknown.

  9. #379
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    Still no word on the collegiate sporting seasons so to speak, but a lot of colleges have brought fall athletes back onto campus for workouts and are keeping them in "isolation." The seasons are going to happen, but when and how is still up in the air.

    I had to chuckle at a JUCO baseball coach I know and what he said about quarantining athletes yesterday. Basically: "you can't bring college athletes back to campus and expect them to stick to isolation. Hormones will make any attempt at that impossible."
    Experience is a cruel teacher, gives the exam first and then the lesson.

  10. #380
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    Quote Originally Posted by Life's a Hillary View Post
    Herd immunity is essentially impossible without a vaccine or mutation that is largely asymptomatic and spreads more than the other strains. It would likely take years to accomplish and that’s assuming you retain immunity which is currently unknown.
    Herd immunity? Nailed it.
    Early CDC serology studies came in last week - Mostly bad news.
    New York had almost 7%, Washington State 1.13% and 2% in Utah. That means there is a huge amount of fuel for the viral outbreaks to burn through going forward. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...b-surveys.html

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