End game: War with China to cancel US debt

[Business_Casual]

Consider this scenario. The majority of US bonds held by CCP related entities. The CCP moves on Taiwan or HK. We “cancel” their bonds under a war powers act.

Ramifications:

1). Consumer goods stop flowing
2). Hostility ensues in Pacific
3). WW III

Is the current path and the proposed reaction/provocation that different than the situation pre-Pearl Harbor? Goading the Japanese into attack?

[SomeOtherGuy]

Very plausible, but complicated. China has likely anticipated this in some form, and based on reports over the last 10 years, fewer and fewer US bonds are held in the name of obvious Chinese entities (governmental or govt-controlled businesses). More and more of the US debt is being "held" in accounts in various offshore financial centers. Tons of US debt is held in those same centers for the benefit of other governments and businesses around the world, many of which we are friendly to (e.g., UK), and some we are conditionally friendly to (India, Saudi Arabia). Some large portion of those accounts likely are owned by those same Chinese entities (governmental or govt-controlled businesses), but there are one or multiple layers of intermediate ownership, so it's not as easy to just cancel debt to China without cancelling debt to, say, British insurance companies.

The US has a range of ways to try and trace who owns what, including overt (FinCEN forms, like 114, and the IRS Forms 8938 and 5471), and while I'm not in intelligence, I imagine a lot of more effective spying type means as well. So the US probably could try to cancel debt to enemies but not friendlies, but I have no idea if their accuracy would be 100%, 80%, or 2%. If we cancel legitimate debt to friendlies they may stop being friendlies.

I imagine this scenario has been planned as a contingency for 20+ years and there is probably a good capability to make it happen, but it may not be simple or clean.

Other than that... things are moving fast and 2020 is crazy. I could imagine China being sanctioned this year.

[Diamondback]

You wanna know how to REALLY hurt China? Tariff the living crap out of consumer goods. 'Course then the toy aisles at Target/Walmart go empty and kiddies start crying and Suzy Soccermommy only sees "the mean ol' Orange Grinch stealing her kiddos' Christmas," which pushes that vote to Team Blue...

And then this in turn gores my ox and possibly kills my current gig, because for some reason despite my strong and sustained encouragement of the company I wok for to even if not fully move out of the PRC at LEAST start developing a second supply line elsewhere, they're still married to one Chinese manufacturing subcontractor... I've been trying to nudge them to look at Eastern Europe, some of the poorer ex-Combloc countries or the newer NATO members.

[ThirdWatcher]

War is an expensive way to restructure debt.

[SteyrAUG]

Consider this scenario. The majority of US bonds held by CCP related entities. The CCP moves on Taiwan or HK. We “cancel” their bonds under a war powers act.

Ramifications:

1). Consumer goods stop flowing
2). Hostility ensues in Pacific
3). WW III

Is the current path and the proposed reaction/provocation that different than the situation pre-Pearl Harbor? Goading the Japanese into attack?

The CCP got Hong Kong back years ago. We don't currently recognize Taiwan, we aren't going to war over them.

If consumer goods stopped flowing from China we'd buy from Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Vietnam and maybe if we are really good...Japan. China would suffer economic collapse.

[Business_Casual]

The CCP got Hong Kong back years ago. We don't currently recognize Taiwan, we aren't going to war over them.

If consumer goods stopped flowing from China we'd buy from Taiwan, India, Pakistan, Vietnam and maybe if we are really good...Japan. China would suffer economic collapse.

Look at the triggers for Pearl Harbor - very similar.

[The_War_Wagon]

War is an expensive way to restructure debt.

Didn't Gen. Smedley Butler get in trouble for noting the same?

[REDinFL]

Look at the triggers for Pearl Harbor - very similar.

Even more similarities.

As a result of US criticism of Japan, leading Japan to look at the US strategically, a Japanese analyst (forgot name, as I'm doing this off the top of my head) wrote a book in 1935 outlining a strategy of an attack on Pearl Harbor.

Twenty years ago, a Chinese general outlined an attack on the US, using biological weapons to minimize destruction, saving US infrastructure for Chinese use.

[Diamondback]

Even more similarities.

As a result of US criticism of Japan, leading Japan to look at the US strategically, a Japanese analyst (forgot name, as I'm doing this off the top of my head) wrote a book in 1935 outlining a strategy of an attack on Pearl Harbor.

Twenty years ago, a Chinese general outlined an attack on the US, using biological weapons to minimize destruction, saving US infrastructure for Chinese use.

You mean Unrestricted Warfare, advocating a full-court press including lawfare, terrorism and economic warfare to "prepare the field." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unrestricted_Warfare An interesting look at their Long Game: http://www.indiandefencereview.com/n...next-50-years/

The main threat is still EMP and Death From Space, two tech capabilities they're very aggressively pursuing while we collectively sit around and polish the pole.
https://www.newsmax.com/peterpry/emp.../26/id/960038/
https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/urgen...s-space-force/

An interesting theory about Trump's actions WRT China right now: https://www.redstate.com/diary/clint...-an-illiberal/

[TexasGunNut]

No expert but stayed at a Holiday Inn once.

CCP (Government) put US bonds up as collateral in numerous banks around the world.
Since the ‘90s, borrowed tangible currency (EU, $, etc) against these.
Invested that real money in real assets worldwide, all the time skimming small but significant amounts into personal or surrogate trust accounts.
Set up enough dummy corporate accounts worldwide to keep approximately $500 billion “floating” at any given time. IE laundering
Buy controlling interest in hedge, mutual and sovereign wealth funds. Buy controlling interests in strategic industries.
Use float to short and long worldwide markets through overnight windows. Use controlling interests to manipulate information (propaganda) to move markets and currencies for profit.
Wash rinse and repeat.
At this point there are SIGNIFICANTLY more assets outside of China, controlled by China or surrogates than there is inside. The way they convert fiat into real assets and global control is brilliant.
We have about a ten year window before the compounding of their strategy is irreversible.

Please take care of my family if I don’t post anything within the next two weeks ��