Massive explosions in Beirut

[chuckman]

If I were speculating, I would say perhaps because some people don't like leaving things to chance. Maybe because "likely" isn't as good as "definitely."

If @yoni is correct, in that this was a known Hezbollah explosives storage facility, and it certainly seems plausible, why would the Israelis not take advantage of the fire and use the smoke as cover to insure it was destroyed?

Israel has often tried to minimize civilian casualties; and a targeted destruction could have been done just as successful without a 2.5-3 kiloton yield that vaporized 20 square blocks. I have no issue with the hezbullah argument; I just see nothing but downside for Israel using a weapon that would create that type of destruction.

[ABNAK]

Israel has often tried to minimize civilian casualties; and a targeted destruction could have been done just as successful without a 2.5-3 kiloton yield that vaporized 20 square blocks. I have no issue with the hezbullah argument; I just see nothing but downside for Israel using a weapon that would create that type of destruction.

Well technically they wouldn't have used a weapon with that kind of power; what they may have targeted would have done it though (with a little help of course).

I agree though that Israel probably would have checked themselves if they knew what would happen. Now maybe, just maybe, they thought there was a lot less than there actually was. Who knows. We don't even know that they were responsible.....yet.

[Adrenaline_6]

If I were speculating, I would say perhaps because some people don't like leaving things to chance. Maybe because "likely" isn't as good as "definitely."

If @yoni is correct, in that this was a known Hezbollah explosives storage facility, and it certainly seems plausible, why would the Israelis not take advantage of the fire and use the smoke as cover to insure it was destroyed?

If the fire was set intentionally, why would you then plan to send a missile/guided munition into it? You are already there. Do what you need to do locally.

If the fire was an accident, the time needed to plan and then execute a strike to take advantage of the situation AFTER finding out what was going on to begin with until the time of the explosion was very short.

[georgeib]

If the fire was set intentionally, why would you then plan to send a missile/guided munition into it? You are already there. Do what you need to do locally.

If the fire was an accident, the time needed to plan and then execute a strike to take advantage of the situation AFTER finding out what was going on to begin with until the time of the explosion was very short.

From what I've been reading recently, it takes more than fire to ignite the ammonium nitrate, but who knows?

[MegademiC]

From what I've been reading recently, it takes more than fire to ignite the ammonium nitrate, but who knows?

Heat and shock. Intense fire with explosions going off all over the place... similar situations have detonated AN many times in the past in industrial accidents.

[georgeib]

Heat and shock. Intense fire with explosions going off all over the place... similar situations have detonated AN many times in the past in industrial accidents.

That was my initial thought as well. These videos, IF they're genuine, have got me considering a different angle though. I mean, it's not like it's implausible that Israel would want to disarm Hezbollah, is it? Couple that with the narrative that's being propagated by them, that it was an explosives warehouse, and it gets even more plausible. Add the videos, and it starts crossing the line into probable.

Still, I'm just guessing, but it makes sense.

[yoni]

Israel wouldn't do such an operation, because the downside is HUGE!

[teufelhund1918]

Israel wouldn't do such an operation, because the downside is HUGE!

Hamas, Hezbollah and/or Iran would do something like this to their own people in order to blame Israel though. Their mindless masses would get behind them.

[LMT/556]

Or fall for the faked videos.

[georgeib]

Israel wouldn't do such an operation, because the downside is HUGE!

Let me preface by stating that I am NOT saying that Israel did this. However, though I would certainly tend to agree that Israel wouldn't want to take credit, or be caught doing such an operation, I think plausible deniability puts this far from outside the realm of possibility.