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Thread: How Long Will Covid Restrictions Remain In Place...?

  1. #321
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    Quote Originally Posted by PracticalRifleman View Post
    My family member is director of the COVID unit and they are now having to work physicians for 24 hour shifts.
    IT wasn't that long ago when 36 hour shifts and Q2 were not uncommon for a stretch if time, Q3 was common and Q4 was for months at a time.

    This is the big one. Hopefully our system will never see something like this again.
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  2. #322
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice_Pick View Post
    Particularly because the death-rate is still holding fairly steady.
    https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
    * World daily deaths are highest ever
    * US daily deaths are highest in 6 months and climbing

    Last edited by maximus83; 11-21-20 at 16:45. Reason: broken link

  3. #323
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice_Pick View Post
    That first number is absolutely irrelevant.

    The second number is meaningful, however... With all the panic and sensationalism I have to wonder how many of those hospitalized were really necessary, and how many were panic induced freak-outs.

    So many have been brainwashed into thinking that a positive test result is basically a death sentence. I suspect many insist on being admitted, and the hospital's lawyers won't let them say no.

    My gut tells me it's a rather large percentage. Particularly because the death-rate is still holding fairly steady.

    Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk
    I agree that people are brainwashed into thinking a positive test is a death sentence, but I know plenty of people who've had it now, coworkers, who get it in her back at work and three or four days. I'm fortunate in that I only know one person who died as a result.

    I know our institution is also triaging admissions, but I can tell you that the attorneys have no say in it, they got bigger fish to fry than who gets admitted versus not as long as the medical documentation and diagnostics are reflective of the truth and are accurate.

    My institution is a long way from running out of beds or resources, but it is a little different than many others. I have friends who are working in smaller hospitals across the country whose experience right now is that they are at 100% census every day and maxing resources because of covid patients.

  4. #324
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice_Pick View Post
    That first number is absolutely irrelevant.

    The second number is meaningful, however... With all the panic and sensationalism I have to wonder how many of those hospitalized were really necessary, and how many were panic induced freak-outs.

    So many have been brainwashed into thinking that a positive test result is basically a death sentence. I suspect many insist on being admitted, and the hospital's lawyers won't let them say no.

    My gut tells me it's a rather large percentage. Particularly because the death-rate is still holding fairly steady.

    Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk
    The hospitals I know of in my state (spans multiple cities) are not admitting COVID + patients unless they meet strict criteria. There are no hysteria admissions.

    I do agree that the incidence of positive tests means nothing without the larger picture of the incidence of hospitalization and breaking that down, stratification based on severity of disease in hospitalized patients.
    SLG Defense 07/02 FFL/SOT

  5. #325
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    Quote Originally Posted by FromMyColdDeadHand View Post
    IT wasn't that long ago when 36 hour shifts and Q2 were not uncommon for a stretch if time, Q3 was common and Q4 was for months at a time.

    This is the big one. Hopefully our system will never see something like this again.
    At our institution itís 12 hr shifts x7 then off seven for providers. Specialties do 24s and 36s but itís call time mostly. 24 hour shifts would be rough for internal medicine or intensivists because it inevitably turns into a 36 with the 12 hour shift the next day. Itís a strange time we are in.


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  6. #326
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ice_Pick View Post
    That first number is absolutely irrelevant.

    The second number is meaningful, however... With all the panic and sensationalism I have to wonder how many of those hospitalized were really necessary, and how many were panic induced freak-outs.

    So many have been brainwashed into thinking that a positive test result is basically a death sentence. I suspect many insist on being admitted, and the hospital's lawyers won't let them say no.

    My gut tells me it's a rather large percentage. Particularly because the death-rate is still holding fairly steady.

    Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

    The rising positivity rate is key to understanding the direction and number of daily infections. Positivity rate is the percentage of tests that return a positive result. It's an indicator of how fast infections are spreading. In October, the 7-day moving average was 4%. It has since surged to a whopping 10%. Here in Tennessee, our current positivity rate is over 14%. It was 6% in October.

    It's no coincidence that rising positivity rates are pushing the number of recorded infections considerably higher, translating to a record number of hospitalizations. Nor is it a coincidence that the number of daily deaths has been significantly rising. A month ago the daily deaths were around 1,000. Now we're at 2,000.

    Here's a graph of testing and positivity rates. Notice the number tests are increasing while at the same time the positivity rate is rapidly rising. That's not good. Also notice the positivity rate hasn't been so high since early in the pandemic when tests were still being prioritized for those with symptoms. Today, we're testing anyone who wanders in for a test, symptoms or not... yet the positivity rate is now soaring. That should raise an eyebrow on anyone paying attention.

    I wouldn't necessarily call it "brainwashing" but I think a lot of people dismiss the soaring number of new infections each day by parroting Trump's babble that it's merely the result of more testing.

    I would guess Covid hospitalizations that were originally admitted for things like auto accidents and other emergencies would be on par with the local positivity rate.

    Last edited by ChattanoogaPhil; 11-21-20 at 19:06.

  7. #327
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    Quote Originally Posted by PracticalRifleman View Post
    Nope.

    And yes, positives are meaningful to the extent we know positives, we know what percentage will need critical care. Ultimately, many of the patients that arenít admitted end up worsening 4-5 days later.

    In my area, people are being sent home that would be admitted under normal circumstances. Hospital space is so valuable right now we are discharging people early and turning away sick peoples because we are out of beds.

    One hospital in town ran out of vents yesterday and my institution is down to the last of them. My family member is director of the COVID unit and they are now having to work physicians for 24 hour shifts.
    Yes, that seems to be the MO. Sure, some are first-time admits but a lot are ones who went to the ER and got sent home to quarantine, then got shitty within a week.
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  8. #328
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    Quote Originally Posted by FromMyColdDeadHand View Post
    IT wasn't that long ago when 36 hour shifts and Q2 were not uncommon for a stretch if time, Q3 was common and Q4 was for months at a time.

    This is the big one. Hopefully our system will never see something like this again.
    The fall of 1918 was the big one, the "second wave" and was the worst.
    11C2P '83-'87
    Airborne Infantry

  9. #329
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    Quote Originally Posted by JoshNC View Post
    The hospitals I know of in my state (spans multiple cities) are not admitting COVID + patients unless they meet strict criteria. There are no hysteria admissions.

    I do agree that the incidence of positive tests means nothing without the larger picture of the incidence of hospitalization and breaking that down, stratification based on severity of disease in hospitalized patients.
    No, to my knowledge there's none of that "I demand to be admitted" BS going on where I work. The majority are sent home to recover in quarantine at the house. But some are coming back within a week having gotten worse. Those usually end up staying for a couple weeks.

    My particular job as an RT is evaluating folks for home oxygen, either discharging them as in-patients and/or managing them long-term as out-patients (like chronic COPD or CHF). COVID has added a whole new spin to my gig. Some of these medical teams are sending COVID patients home on quite a bit of oxygen. 6L NC or 8L Pendant with exertion (and we aren't talking a 6-minute walk test either), 2-4L at rest is not uncommon. I've gone over their heads before to Pulmonary (who I ultimately answer to and who signs the orders I enter) because these idiot residents are cool with discharging a COVID patient on a 10L Pendant satting 85%! No friggin' way! They ain't ready for discharge yet if that is the result. [to be fair I've only had to do it twice as most of these baby-docs have a clue, but every now and then.....they're like dealing with 2nd Lieutenants or Ensigns]
    Last edited by ABNAK; 11-21-20 at 18:52.
    11C2P '83-'87
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  10. #330
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChattanoogaPhil View Post
    The rising positivity rate is key to understanding the direction and number of daily infections. Positivity rate is the percentage of tests that return a positive result. It's an indicator of how fast infections are spreading. In October, the 7-day moving average was 4%. It has since surged to a whopping 10%. Here in Tennessee, our current positivity rate is over 14%. It was 6% in October.

    It's no coincidence that rising positivity rates are pushing the number of recorded infections considerably higher, translating to a record number of hospitalizations. Nor is it a coincidence that the number of daily deaths has been significantly rising. A month ago the daily deaths were around 1,000. Now we're at 2,000.

    Here's a graph of testing and positivity rates. Notice the number tests are increasing while at the same time the positivity rate is rapidly rising. That's not good. Also notice the positivity rate hasn't been so high since early in the pandemic when tests were still being prioritized for those with symptoms. Today, we're testing anyone who wanders in for a test, symptoms or not... yet the positivity rate is now soaring. That should raise an eyebrow on anyone paying attention.

    I wouldn't necessarily call it "brainwashing" but I think a lot of people dismiss the soaring number of new infections each day by parroting Trump's babble that it's merely the result of more testing.

    I would guess Covid hospitalizations that were originally admitted for things like auto accidents and other emergencies would be on par with the local positivity rate.

    Are those deaths with “COVID” or from “COVID-19?”

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