How Long Will Covid Restrictions Remain In Place...?

[ChattanoogaPhil]

The positivity rate (percentage of Covid tests that are positive) has increased from a 7-day moving average of 4% in October to 10% now. Hospitalizations have increased from 30-40k in October to 100k now. Deaths were running about 1k per day in October, now we're at 2k per day.

So.. while anecdotal stories of motorcycle accidents and picking apart the accuracy of testing is interesting, the explosive trends to the upside are difficult to simply ignore or otherwise dismiss as some type of coincidental fluke of measurement error across the board.

[jsbhike]

What should be more concerning as far as testing accuracy goes is not false positives, but instead false negatives.

I think both are equally important. If the test is that jacked up then what good is it?

The test being wrong 2 different ways is literally rejecting in spec and passing out of spec. A legit business would not, could not, tolerate a QC system that produces garbage information like this.

[ABNAK]

I think both are equally important. If the test is that jacked up then what good is it?

The test being wrong 2 different ways is literally rejecting in spec and passing out of spec. A legit business would not, could not, tolerate a QC system that produces garbage information like this.

I think I said it wrong.....what is most disturbing to me is the chance you are tested and given a thumb's up when you really in fact have it. Then you spread it, and if you are already "sick" you may neglect getting needed medical attention (if you got that bad) because "Well at least it isn't COVID, I guess I can just ride it out".

Agree though, there HAS to be some way in the 21st Century to freaking accurately diagnose this thing. This hit-or-miss, [purported] 30-40% inaccuracy is unacceptable.

[JoshNC]

I think I said it wrong.....what is most disturbing to me is the chance you are tested and given a thumb's up when you really in fact have it. Then you spread it, and if you are already "sick" you may neglect getting needed medical attention (if you got that bad) because "Well at least it isn't COVID, I guess I can just ride it out".

Agree though, there HAS to be some way in the 21st Century to freaking accurately diagnose this thing. This hit-or-miss, [purported] 30-40% inaccuracy is unacceptable.

The rapid test has poor sensitivity in asymptotic people, meaning higher false negative rate in asymptotic people.

[jsbhike]

I think I said it wrong.....what is most disturbing to me is the chance you are tested and given a thumb's up when you really in fact have it. Then you spread it, and if you are already "sick" you may neglect getting needed medical attention (if you got that bad) because "Well at least it isn't COVID, I guess I can just ride it out".

Agree though, there HAS to be some way in the 21st Century to freaking accurately diagnose this thing. This hit-or-miss, [purported] 30-40% inaccuracy is unacceptable.

That is what I was getting at.

And that produces a couple of concerns because nobody ruling over us, .gov or .med, seems to care about that issue.

The other concern derived fron that is the constant goading to partake of the seriously flawed test. No caveats about taking it if exhibiting symptoms or known exposure, just basically go get checked for shits and giggles. That nonsense in and of itself would cause issues due to using resources for no obvious reason and, in my experience, a real good way to catch something is to be anywhere near a medical facility. That goading seems nothing short of bizarre under the current set of details.

[ChattanoogaPhil]

Pfizer requested FDA emergency approval for their vaccine Nov 20. No approval as of Dec 5. Hasn't the FDA been following the science and trials in real time along with Pfizer as part of Warp Speed? What is it that the FDA didn't know as of Nov 20th that they've had to investigate for the past couple weeks of indecision?

[jsbhike]

Pfizer requested FDA emergency approval for their vaccine Nov 20. No approval as of Dec 5. Hasn't the FDA been following the science and trials in real time along with Pfizer as part of Warp Speed? What is it that the FDA didn't know as of Nov 20th that they've had to investigate for the past couple weeks of indecision?

Fast or slow, this is effectively a subdivision of the group of people saying there was no election fraud which is totally the opposite of what behind the scene videos of the election process shows.

[ChattanoogaPhil]

I think I said it wrong.....what is most disturbing to me is the chance you are tested and given a thumb's up when you really in fact have it. Then you spread it, and if you are already "sick" you may neglect getting needed medical attention (if you got that bad) because "Well at least it isn't COVID, I guess I can just ride it out".

Redfield at the CDC suggested that the number of actual infections exceeded known infections (positives) by as much as 10x. If that's anywhere close to true, then the overwhelming majority of those infected with Covid never have a confirmed positive or not tested anyway.

[HardToHandle]

Pfizer requested FDA emergency approval for their vaccine Nov 20. No approval as of Dec 5. Hasn't the FDA been following the science and trials in real time along with Pfizer as part of Warp Speed? What is it that the FDA didn't know as of Nov 20th that they've had to investigate for the past couple weeks of indecision?

Fact: I was getting some .GOV briefings starting in June that laid out the vaccine approval process down to x-day phases. For all practical purposes, that accelerated timeline is being executed to the minute. Those briefings were also largely consistent with public messaging, just to deeper detail and involved some informed people asking questions back.

August 2020 graphic of the Warp Speed process, which is the best open source example of what I was being briefed.
8872E2D0-60CA-4DF9-A345-1552EAAE0086.jpeg
https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...imeline-2020-8

My opinion? The original plan was reasonable and being executed appropriately.
I also think the bureaucratic machine absolutely is digging their heals in against Trump pressure, not so much to deny Trump anything but to protect the integrity of the process and, rightfully, Americans’ health. We have 50% of the population that is highly leery of the vaccine and Trump’s statements about slow-rolling the approval process absolutely plays into undermining confidence in the safety evaluation process. HHS personnel may actually believe that delaying vaccine introduction until Trump is out of office may be net positive for defeating COVID (which is a reasonable argument).

The one saving grace is the UK began vaccine administration this week. Hopefully all goes well in the UK and that their experience is able to inform the US public perception.

Also, the COVID data trends in the Great Plains states have some glimmers of hope. North Dakota appears to have potentially peaked (note they are using active duty military personnel to staff medical facilities), Iowa dropped out of the top 10 of new cases when they added a statewide mask mandate and Wisconsin’s new cases are declining (while COVID hospitalized and deaths continue to climb).

[AndyLate]

Redfield at the CDC suggested that the number of actual infections exceeded known infections (positives) by as much as 10x. If that's anywhere close to true, then the overwhelming majority of those infected with Covid never have a confirmed positive or not tested anyway.

If this estimate is correct, then over 90% of cases are asymptomatic or can be treated at home with OTC meds.