How Long Will Covid Restrictions Remain In Place...?

[CPM]

NC has the same thing. My friend wanted a divorce during his time in law school(he’s now a prosecutor in TN) and I asked him, “Hey bro, why don’t you both just lie and say it’s been a year since you both want a divorce?” They did and it was done with no waiting. Unless she’s not in agreement with you, just lie.

[HardToHandle]

That Sweden didn’t lock down and they are alright. That wearing a mask may or may not help, it should be your choice. That the R naught is no where near what was claimed early on and if you aren’t in a high-risk group, go about your life as normal, get lots of sunshine, sleep and moderate your vices. That being scared of “cases” is silly.

I will call your bluff. Any reputable evidence for the assertions?

Here is a few days old story about Sweden. Sweden is a COVID shitshow - compared to the US, compared to its neighbors or the global baseline.
The head of Stockholm’s health service appealed to national authorities on Wednesday to send specialist nurses and other hospital staff as it struggles to cope with a second wave of COVID infections that has filled intensive care wards in Sweden’s capital city.
Sweden, which has not opted for the kind of lockdown adopted by many other European nations, has suffered many times more COVID-19 deaths per capita than its Nordic neighbours, with the total reaching almost 7,300 on Wednesday.
https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSKBN28J23M

I know a number of people who have died and more than a few who have said COVID is the worst illness they have ever had. Absolute bullshit, divorced from reality, to be tooting the horn that COVID is not that bad. Take a drive to North Dakota or New Mexico and start licking door knobs if you are so sure. New Mexico was at 105% of ICU capacity Friday IIRC.

[Business_Casual]

I will call your bluff. Any reputable evidence for the assertions?

Here is a few days old story about Sweden. Sweden is a COVID shitshow - compared to the US, compared to its neighbors or the global baseline.
The head of Stockholm’s health service appealed to national authorities on Wednesday to send specialist nurses and other hospital staff as it struggles to cope with a second wave of COVID infections that has filled intensive care wards in Sweden’s capital city.
Sweden, which has not opted for the kind of lockdown adopted by many other European nations, has suffered many times more COVID-19 deaths per capita than its Nordic neighbours, with the total reaching almost 7,300 on Wednesday.
https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSKBN28J23M

I know a number of people who have died and more than a few who have said COVID is the worst illness they have ever had. Absolute bullshit, divorced from reality, to be tooting the horn that COVID is not that bad. Take a drive to North Dakota or New Mexico and start licking door knobs if you are so sure. New Mexico was at 105% of ICU capacity Friday IIRC.

A). Reuters is all in on the COVID hype so no thank you on their reports
B). Where have I asserted that the people who contract COVID aren’t sick? What I’ve asserted is we do MORE (that means it is bad) harm by restricting people’s choice via government. Period. Give people freedom and if they screw up, too bad. If they survive, double thumbs up.

[HardToHandle]

[QUOTE=Business_Casual]That Sweden didn’t lock down and they are alright. That wearing a mask may or may not help, it should be your choice. That the R naught is no where near what was claimed early on and if you aren’t in a high-risk group, go about your life as normal, get lots of sunshine, sleep and moderate your vices. That being scared of “cases” is silly.
[QUOTE]

A). Reuters is all in on the COVID hype so no thank you on their reports
B). Where have I asserted that the people who contract COVID aren’t sick? What I’ve asserted is we do MORE (that means it is bad) harm by restricting people’s choice via government. Period. Give people freedom and if they screw up, too bad. If they survive, double thumbs up.

If the defense to being proved fundamentally wrong is to stick your fingers in your ears and chant “I can’t hear you”... No Sweden is not alright.
Let me put in the last nail in the coffin. Since you are so wrong on the basic facts on Sweden, hopefully your confidence is shaken about the continued uniformed shitposting.

Sweden’s Covid Workers Are Quitting in Dangerous Numbers
Stockholm's health authorities have made a new call for help, asking for private healthcare companies to free up staff to help solve a severe shortage in intensive care places.
https://www.thelocal.se/20201212/sto...sector-doctors

Swedish prime minister goes into self-isolation as country’s cases surge
Covid cases have been increasing rapidly in Sweden since late September, and the latest figures (which date back to last month) show that the country reported 9,165 new infections, an increase of 63 per cent from the previous week and the largest ever number of cases seen in a single week.

In total, Sweden has now recorded more than 142,000 cases of the virus and 6,002 deaths. Although the total of 593 deaths per million people is lower than the UK’s grim toll, it is many times higher than its Nordic counterparts, such as Norway, which has only seen 52 deaths per million people.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1619953.html

Covid-19: What Sweden taught Scandinavia for the second wave
Masks aside, Sweden now seems to be joining the rest of Scandinavia in being more restrictive in its guidance as the number of cases soars in the second wave.

“We are going in the wrong direction,” said Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven at a news conference on 3 November. “The situation is very serious . . . Every citizen needs to take responsibility. We know how dangerous this is.”

As of 12 November, the government had rolled out stricter local restrictions in 13 of Sweden’s 21 regions, which include avoiding public transport, physical contact with people from outside your household, and limiting restaurants and cafés to a maximum of eight people at tables.
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4456

[SeriousStudent]

Ease off on the tone, folks. You can present facts without making stuff personal.

And you all wonder why the COVID threads keep getting locked.....

[m4hk33]

I would say that restrictions will stay in place for as long as they serve a political purpose.

As the States that are imposing the heaviest restrictions have not face any repercussions at the ballot box, what reason do they have to ease up on restrictions. As services will get prior to their paychecks, they are more than willing to play it safe

[Business_Casual]

[QUOTE=HardToHandle;2910490][QUOTE=Business_Casual]That Sweden didn’t lock down and they are alright. That wearing a mask may or may not help, it should be your choice. That the R naught is no where near what was claimed early on and if you aren’t in a high-risk group, go about your life as normal, get lots of sunshine, sleep and moderate your vices. That being scared of “cases” is silly.

If the defense to being proved fundamentally wrong is to stick your fingers in your ears and chant “I can’t hear you”... No Sweden is not alright.
Let me put in the last nail in the coffin. Since you are so wrong on the basic facts on Sweden, hopefully your confidence is shaken about the continued uniformed shitposting.

Sweden’s Covid Workers Are Quitting in Dangerous Numbers
Stockholm's health authorities have made a new call for help, asking for private healthcare companies to free up staff to help solve a severe shortage in intensive care places.
https://www.thelocal.se/20201212/sto...sector-doctors

Swedish prime minister goes into self-isolation as country’s cases surge
Covid cases have been increasing rapidly in Sweden since late September, and the latest figures (which date back to last month) show that the country reported 9,165 new infections, an increase of 63 per cent from the previous week and the largest ever number of cases seen in a single week.

In total, Sweden has now recorded more than 142,000 cases of the virus and 6,002 deaths. Although the total of 593 deaths per million people is lower than the UK’s grim toll, it is many times higher than its Nordic counterparts, such as Norway, which has only seen 52 deaths per million people.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1619953.html

Covid-19: What Sweden taught Scandinavia for the second wave
Masks aside, Sweden now seems to be joining the rest of Scandinavia in being more restrictive in its guidance as the number of cases soars in the second wave.

“We are going in the wrong direction,” said Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven at a news conference on 3 November. “The situation is very serious . . . Every citizen needs to take responsibility. We know how dangerous this is.”

As of 12 November, the government had rolled out stricter local restrictions in 13 of Sweden’s 21 regions, which include avoiding public transport, physical contact with people from outside your household, and limiting restaurants and cafés to a maximum of eight people at tables.
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4456

This is getting silly. Quarantine comes from the Italian for 40. They picked that number based on Noah and the time Jesus was in the desert. This was pre-germ theory. We all go to the grocery store, as I’ve mentioned countless times. We all get stuff delivered by humans almost every day. There is in effect no quarantine, but there are economic restrictions and political posturing that is just silly. Either give back the freedom or go full communist but what we are doing now is not based on facts.

I’ll turn the question around - prove that lockdowns with grocery and deliverys do anything to stop the virus?

[Adrenaline_6]

[QUOTE=Business_Casual;2910537][QUOTE=HardToHandle;2910490]

That Sweden didn’t lock down and they are alright. That wearing a mask may or may not help, it should be your choice. That the R naught is no where near what was claimed early on and if you aren’t in a high-risk group, go about your life as normal, get lots of sunshine, sleep and moderate your vices. That being scared of “cases” is silly.


This is getting silly. Quarantine comes from the Italian for 40. They picked that number based on Noah and the time Jesus was in the desert. This was pre-germ theory. We all go to the grocery store, as I’ve mentioned countless times. We all get stuff delivered by humans almost every day. There is in effect no quarantine, but there are economic restrictions and political posturing that is just silly. Either give back the freedom or go full communist but what we are doing now is not based on facts.

I’ll turn the question around - prove that lockdowns with grocery and deliverys do anything to stop the virus?

Agreed. All lockdowns prove to me is that they are in effect just pressing the pause button, nothing more. Except the pause button comes at a high cost to the economy and citizens physical and mental well being. As soon as that pause button is pressed again to "resume", the virus continues on like it never happened. Thinking a government can actually control it is borderline hilarious.

[HardToHandle]

A few points in response.

- No fan of lockdowns. My at-the-time assessment was the March 2020 lockdowns in the US were likely 80% unnecessary and 20% might have been helpful. I held that opinion through March-April. My mid-May, the evidence of the of the earlier Nov-Dec. 2019 introduction of COVID became known in the technical community, which bolstered the case for earlier US lockdowns. My opinion evolved to be less hateful of lockdowns based on that evidence, as it kept the New York/New Jersey mortalities from spreading US wide in the Spring.

- As for success of lockdowns, it is mixed. There are some fairly high success examples in Australia, New Zealand and Hawa'ii. Note those were all effectively islands and mitigated by aggressive screening/eradication inside their bubble. The next tier of lockdown success is Singapore, South Korea, Germany and the Scandinavian countries (except Sweden); they all have taken some early economic hits but have suffered relatively minor mortalities and limited economic loss. They also were all democracies, albeit more homogenous and compact than the US.

- Sweden's attempt for community-wide immunity is a massive fail. Sweden has suffered outsize death rates and is now severely lagging in economic performance compared to its neighbors, all of whom share similar genetics and political systems but did use lockdowns. A year into a pandemic, Sweden looks stupid, especially since Norway will see a predicted 3.7% GDP growth compared to -6.9% in Sweden during CY2020. https://www.statista.com/topics/6267...-19-in-sweden/

- Lockdowns absolutely defer COVID case growth, to the title of the thread, they don't necessarily stop future cases unless a prophylactic solution such as vaccine is available. The Swedish case makes a compelling case for conserving economic activity by cooling through lockdowns versus laisse faire approach.

The US CDC published their cross-sectional Delaware lockdown case study, which found lockdowns contributed to "an 82% reduction in COVID-19 incidence, 88% reduction in hospitalizations, and 100% reduction in mortality in Delaware during late April–June." https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6945e1_w

You may not like the reductions in freedom or the terrible economic consequences, but there is strong evidence indicating there is longer-term value.

[jsbhike]

A few points in response.

- No fan of lockdowns. My at-the-time assessment was the March 2020 lockdowns in the US were likely 80% unnecessary and 20% might have been helpful. I held that opinion through March-April. My mid-May, the evidence of the of the earlier Nov-Dec. 2019 introduction of COVID became known in the technical community, which bolstered the case for earlier US lockdowns. My opinion evolved to be less hateful of lockdowns based on that evidence, as it kept the New York/New Jersey mortalities from spreading US wide in the Spring.

- As for success of lockdowns, it is mixed. There are some fairly high success examples in Australia, New Zealand and Hawa'ii. Note those were all effectively islands and mitigated by aggressive screening/eradication inside their bubble. The next tier of lockdown success is Singapore, South Korea, Germany and the Scandinavian countries (except Sweden); they all have taken some early economic hits but have suffered relatively minor mortalities and limited economic loss. They also were all democracies, albeit more homogenous and compact than the US.

- Sweden's attempt for community-wide immunity is a massive fail. Sweden has suffered outsize death rates and is now severely lagging in economic performance compared to its neighbors, all of whom share similar genetics and political systems but did use lockdowns. A year into a pandemic, Sweden looks stupid, especially since Norway will see a predicted 3.7% GDP growth compared to -6.9% in Sweden during CY2020. https://www.statista.com/topics/6267...-19-in-sweden/

- Lockdowns absolutely defer COVID case growth, to the title of the thread, they don't necessarily stop future cases unless a prophylactic solution such as vaccine is available. The Swedish case makes a compelling case for conserving economic activity by cooling through lockdowns versus laisse faire approach.

The US CDC published their cross-sectional Delaware lockdown case study, which found lockdowns contributed to "an 82% reduction in COVID-19 incidence, 88% reduction in hospitalizations, and 100% reduction in mortality in Delaware during late April–June." https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6945e1_w

You may not like the reductions in freedom or the terrible economic consequences, but there is strong evidence indicating there is longer-term value.

So how many decades do you think the lockdowns need to continue?