How Long Will Covid Restrictions Remain In Place...?

[Whiskey_Bravo]

Doesn't look like much.

During the past 30 days reported Covid deaths have averaged about 2,500 per day. That eclipses an entire flu season in about 5 days (low end CDC estimates) ) and a little over three weeks (high end CDC estimates).

While COVID is certainly spreading faster, more easily and has a higher amount of deaths I am not sure your flu numbers are correct unless I am not understanding what you said. You said 2,500 average covid deaths per day eclipses an entire flue season in about 5 days?

2017/2018 Flu season had an estimated 61,000 deaths and 620,000 to 1,400,000 hospitalizations.
2018/2019 flu season had an estimated 34,000 deaths and 390,000 to 770,000 hospitalizations.
2019/2020 flu season had an estimated 22,000 deaths and 350,000 to 500,000 hospitalizations.

5 days at 2,500 average deaths per day for COVID would be 12,500. I know it doesn't really matter given the large covid numbers but I just wanted to point it out.



Flu numbers are helped by the fact that about 50% of people get vaccinated and those vaccines are about 50% effective on any given year. It will be interesting to see how the COVID vaccines do and how many people end up getting it.

[chuckman]

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politic...avirus-n130617
Sent you some more Fauci Love.

In the early 2000’s, Dr. Anthony Fauci, America’s top infectious disease expert, reportedly shifted his focus from an AIDS vaccine to combatting biological warfare. By 2003, his anti-terrorism budget at the National Institute of Health had reached nearly $2 billion. A significant chunk of this funding, and NIH research, went to genetically modifying certain pathogens, both in search of vaccines and to investigate their possible use as bioweapons.

Scientists raised red flags about these “gain-of-function” (GoF) experiments, arguing the danger of creating new, deadly, highly transmissible diseases outweighed any possible benefits. “The consequences, should the virus escape, are too devastating to risk,” read a 2012 New York Times editorial.

Y'all have fun with that.

This has been a controversial thing with WMDs for 120 years. We got rid of chemical weps and research and largely abandoned nuclear weapon research. Biological is the last and most insidious domain. But the truth is, to learn how to combat this, especially the engineered pathogens, you have to spend time monkeying with them. We do this all the time, every day, with almost every other disease, but those don't wipe out whole populations if they get out.

There are four (that I know of) level 4 BSLs within 20 miles of me, two on academic campuses; and a nuke reactor partially funded by the DOD at a nearby school for good measure.

We knew in the early 2000s that this strain of coronavirus had a potential of being bad, and was seen as a potential emerging concern, and that was before Wuhan decided to eff with it in a lab.

[jsbhike]

This has been a controversial thing with WMDs for 120 years. We got rid of chemical weps and research and largely abandoned nuclear weapon research. Biological is the last and most insidious domain. But the truth is, to learn how to combat this, especially the engineered pathogens, you have to spend time monkeying with them. We do this all the time, every day, with almost every other disease, but those don't wipe out whole populations if they get out.

There are four (that I know of) level 4 BSLs within 20 miles of me, two on academic campuses; and a nuke reactor partially funded by the DOD at a nearby school for good measure.

We knew in the early 2000s that this strain of coronavirus had a potential of being bad, and was seen as a potential emerging concern, and that was before Wuhan decided to eff with it in a lab.

I assume this is the same story Averageman shared, but the link wouldn't open for me.

I can understand the need for research, but not this.

https://www.christopherfountain.com/...thats-waaacist

"National Institute Of Health Money Directly Flowed To The Wuhan Bat Lab

The research lab at the center of the pandemic in Wuhan, China’s only level-4 biomedical research facility, received funding from the United States. The essay reports Shi Zhengli, China’s “bat woman” expert on diseases carried by the flying animals, had some of her work funded by the NIH and the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

Funding for Shi was secured through grants from those two organizations with the help of a non-profit called EcoHealth. The head of EcoHealth is Peter Daszak, who allegedly played an instrumental role in directing NIH funds to Shi’s Wuhan lab."

[chuckman]

I assume this is the same story Averageman shared, but the link wouldn't open for me.

I can understand the need for research, but not this.

https://www.christopherfountain.com/...thats-waaacist

"National Institute Of Health Money Directly Flowed To The Wuhan Bat Lab

The research lab at the center of the pandemic in Wuhan, China’s only level-4 biomedical research facility, received funding from the United States. The essay reports Shi Zhengli, China’s “bat woman” expert on diseases carried by the flying animals, had some of her work funded by the NIH and the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

Funding for Shi was secured through grants from those two organizations with the help of a non-profit called EcoHealth. The head of EcoHealth is Peter Daszak, who allegedly played an instrumental role in directing NIH funds to Shi’s Wuhan lab."

If I were President or King of the World I would not give China one GD penny. Not one. Talk about conspiring with enemies.

[ChattanoogaPhil]

While COVID is certainly spreading faster, more easily and has a higher amount of deaths I am not sure your flu numbers are correct unless I am not understanding what you said. You said 2,500 average covid deaths per day eclipses an entire flue season in about 5 days?

2017/2018 Flu season had an estimated 61,000 deaths and 620,000 to 1,400,000 hospitalizations.
2018/2019 flu season had an estimated 34,000 deaths and 390,000 to 770,000 hospitalizations.
2019/2020 flu season had an estimated 22,000 deaths and 350,000 to 500,000 hospitalizations.

5 days at 2,500 average deaths per day for COVID would be 12,500. I know it doesn't really matter given the large covid numbers but I just wanted to point it out.



Flu numbers are helped by the fact that about 50% of people get vaccinated and those vaccines are about 50% effective on any given year. It will be interesting to see how the COVID vaccines do and how many people end up getting it.

Yes, 5 days of reported Covid deaths (average for the past 30 days = 2,500 per day ) eclipses CDC low end estimates for an entire flu season.

CDC website: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

"CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010."

The above numbers were cited last night in post #950 by Steve Shannon so I didn't bother repeating them.

[ChattanoogaPhil]

Are we doing world wide numbers here or just US stats?

US stats, of course. An average of about 2,500 reported Covid deaths per day for the past 30 days. I don't know what the worldwide daily death count is but it's many times greater than that. So far just today the reported worldwide count is already over 7,300 at 1:10 pm EST. By the time anyone here clicks on the link it will be higher. Click here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1:32pm EDT (22 minutes later) the worldwide Covid death count has grown from 7,300 to 8,060.

[AndyLate]

How accurate do you feel the Worldometer data is? They definitely have the easiest site for me to use.

Andy

[FromMyColdDeadHand]

You must be an epidemiologist, Okie. Epidemiologists that analyze the normal US flu seasons know there is no influenza in the US. Well, almost no flu. Effectively anyone presenting to a doctor with flu-like symptoms today is being tested for COVID, Influenza Type A and Type B as a matter of course. If a person is positive for any of the three viruses, it is a mandatory report. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
Attachment 64779

COVID is a much nastier disease - it displaces the circulating flu. Happened in the Northern Hemisphere in March 2020 - COVID truncated the normal US flu season. Everyone coming in for suspected COVID was getting Influenza A&B screens and those tests were all negative. That negative A&B result was the major lab test indicator for COVID until the US government’s fiasco test was replaced by reliable commercial tests in late April and early May.

Guess what? Same pattern in the Southern Hemisphere flu season.

Since we have B 1.1.7 variant in all corners of the US now, hold on. Parts of London have 1000 new daily cases per 100,000. California’s healthcare system is choking at 97 per 100,000. The State of North Dakota had to ask for active duty military personnel to staff their hospitals and care facilities at 120 per 100,000. How will the US handle a pocket for 500/100k?

Competitive inhibition in a virus? How does that work?

I highly doubt that the UKs system is 10X better than the US system.

I don't understand why the smart guys have been saying that the winter was going to be horrible, and we basically added no new infrastructure and capabilities- people or facilities. This is a once-in-a-century event and for some reason we are dealing with it with every-year resources??? In the spring they had hospital ships and were building facilities at the convention center. I don't hear about either kind of capability anymore.

We got hit with the virological Pearl Harbor this spring and we seem to not have built any more carriers.

Colorado case and deaths are plummeting. We'll see if there is a Christmas blip.

Trillions spent and we got some vaccines, but on the care side, it seems that we spent nothing.

[Disciple]

We are being herded like the German Jews were herded into the oven in Hitler's Germany, Lets hope the great reset won't make us want to have the mountains fall on us.

obey the Tv.

You quoted my post so I presume this is a reply. Do you have evidence of these figures being fake? It's certainly possible but I would like to see evidence. If people are dying at an excessive rate but not from COVID that's even more concerning.

[ChattanoogaPhil]

I'm not in the industry, but I can understand healthcare operators being reluctant to heavily invest in capacity for temporary demand or demand that may never occur. NYC panic expansion of capacity was a classic example.

Early in the pandemic, Vanderbilt in Nashville converted a portion of a parking garage for Covid treatment. Modest expansion of 75 beds. The idea was to temporarily increase capacity on the cheap while at the same time keeping Covid patients isolated from the main hospital. Seemed like a smart approach. Last I read the beds were remaining near full and they were converting a portion of the children's hospital for adults and then shuffling things around for additional capacity.