Ammunition Prices

[Jewell]

I learned my lesson years ago. When ammo was plentiful, I was making sure I'd buy a little at least every month. Nothing crazy, just making sure I always bought some, and just like saving money, I make sure I'm bringing more in than I'm putting out.


After years of doing this, it's added up, and I'm not having to panic buy during times like these. I'm still doing the same thing today. I refuse to pay the ridiculous prices. If you're patient, and wait for it to be stocked, there are still places online that charge resonable prices. Not this dollar a round s***.

[PatEgan]

When primers and powder come back, I can imagine growth in the small/'boutique' ammo manufacturing sector. There were and are a bunch of brands out there that most haven't heard of but who produced decent-good ammo at more approachable prices than alot of the big names.

Our ammo crisis appears to be an almost exclusively domestic phenomenon too, as other countries seem to be producing ammo just fine and with obviously fewer shooters in their own countries. Wolf, Tula, Prvi Partisan and Igman might just make this a little easier.

[Bimmer]

I think the fact ammo is available, just overpriced should tell us all something.

Right. This means we're at the apogee of the crisis...

The blind panic is over, and people are no longer buying at any price.

As calmer heads prevail and buyers hold off buying overpriced ammo, inventories will rise, and prices will fall...

Supply and demand: It's the law.

I die a little inside every time we have one of these shortages. Prices never seem to drop back to what they were...

But they always have dropped back to where they were...

Everyone says they will stock up when prices come back down, but I can count with one hand how many times I’ve seen a guy say “yeah I shoot all the time. I stocked up when the prices were cheap” lol

Count me as one of those guys.

Between when California passed the laws banning online ammo sales (2016) and when they took effect (2017), ammo was dirt cheap and I bought cases and cases of brass-cased 5.56 @ <30¢, 7.62NATO @ <50¢, and 12ga shotgun shells @ <25¢, and .22lr @ 5¢.

Now I'm sitting on 48,000 rounds of ammo in various calibers, and after the 2008 panic I bought dies and components to load another 15,000... My supply of bullets isn't so good, but it seems like those will be the last thing to be banned/restricted.

Prices rarely, if ever, rescind to 'previous levels'. If one is fortunate to buy 1000rds 9mm for $600, that is now considered reasonable or even a 'deal'. You will never see the $249-$299/ 1000rd ever again.

Wait and see...

It's simple, the demand is extremely high and production is flat and not expanding anymore. The factories say they are running at full capacity, but nobody is building new factories.

That's a sign: The people who know the industry best (and who saw demand skyrocket in 2009 and 2013 and crash afterwards) know that this bubble is going to pop and it's not worth investing in new factories to meet demand that's going to evaporate in 6-12 months.

There are something like 7 million more new shooters and climbing and everyone is in a hoarding mood.

I know three of those shooters...

Each just bought a gun (invariably a 9mm).

Each bought a couple hundred rounds of ammo, paying waaay too much (50¢/round or more).

Each took the gun out and shot it no more than twice. (My sampling of three: one still hasn't shot his at all, one shot his once, and one shot his twice.)

None of them is going to buy any more ammo anytime soon.

So the cost of ammo has no bearing on how much people shoot? Walmart treated ammo like every other commodity they sold. They bought TRAIN CAR LOADS OF IT and sold it cheap.

Yes, and I bought ammo from WalMart, and still do sometimes, but their prices often couldn't compete with those on the errornet... No great loss.

[Esq.]

Right. This means we're at the apogee of the crisis...

The blind panic is over, and people are no longer buying at any price.

As calmer heads prevail and buyers hold off buying overpriced ammo, inventories will rise, and prices will fall...

Supply and demand: It's the law.





But they always have dropped back to where they were...




Count me as one of those guys.

Between when California passed the laws banning online ammo sales (2016) and when they took effect (2017), ammo was dirt cheap and I bought cases and cases of brass-cased 5.56 @ <30¢, 7.62NATO @ <50¢, and 12ga shotgun shells @ <25¢, and .22lr @ 5¢.

Now I'm sitting on 48,000 rounds of ammo in various calibers, and after the 2008 panic I bought dies and components to load another 15,000... My supply of bullets isn't so good, but it seems like those will be the last thing to be banned/restricted.




Wait and see...




That's a sign: The people who know the industry best (and who saw demand skyrocket in 2009 and 2013 and crash afterwards) know that this bubble is going to pop and it's not worth investing in new factories to meet demand that's going to evaporate in 6-12 months.




I know three of those shooters...

Each just bought a gun (invariably a 9mm).

Each bought a couple hundred rounds of ammo, paying waaay too much (50¢/round or more).

Each took the gun out and shot it no more than twice. (My sampling of three: one still hasn't shot his at all, one shot his once, and one shot his twice.)

None of them is going to buy any more ammo anytime soon.





Yes, and I bought ammo from WalMart, and still do sometimes, but their prices often couldn't compete with those on the errornet... No great loss.

Several things. You are a highly a typical shooter- your personal ammo buying choices are largely meaningless in the grand scheme of things--1. The vast majority of shooters have never mail ordered a case of ammo in their lives.

Karl Rehn--KR Training, is the only person I know who has actually crunched the numbers-and he's qualified to do so, his estimate is that only about 5 000 shooters, the hard-core, support most of what we call the "training industry", idpa, ipsc etc....That small number of "orders ammo by the case" type shooters is dwarfed by the "one box of 9s and one box .30-30 crowd". Those folks, buy ammo at Walmart.

2. Prior to El Paso, Walmart had 20% of the entire ammo market. One of every 5 rounds sold.... I love SG Ammo etc.. but they would be the first to admit they are pissant compared to Walmart ammo sales.

3. Ask our California brethern what happened to ammo prices when online sales were banned. Joe's bait and guns went no lube.

So, I do believe that long term, fewer sales outlets and fewer (consolidated) producers, means higher prices. To think otherwise means ammo is somehow immune to market forces-and recent history would strongly suggest otherwise.

[Bret]

So the cost of ammo has no bearing on how much people shoot? Walmart treated ammo like every other commodity they sold. They bought TRAIN CAR LOADS OF IT and sold it cheap. You think "Jim Bobs Gun and Bait Shop" got the same prices on ammo or sold it as cheap as Walmart? They have the same costs of scale? Not hardly....

Your assumption that Walmart beats the local competition hasn't been true for over ten years where I live in Atlanta. It sure isn't true when it comes to buying online. So yes, the amount ammunition costs has an impact on how much people shoot. But no, Walmart doesn't sell below market. Therefore, their lack of selling does not impact the demand.

[TomMcC]

Online sales weren't totally banned in Calif. You just had to have it shipped to a dealer willing to accept the shipment. They would then do a back ground check, add their handling fees. Some dealers were way better than others on the fees. The last K of .223 I got online from Target Sport wound up being about $325 shipped and processed. That was a while ago...some months. Prices did go up a bit, but nothing radical. Prices went up when Walmart got completely out of the ammo biz when the the back ground check law hit. LGS's didn't have to compete as much. The rona and election panics really drove things into the stratosphere, but then that hit all of us.

[Bimmer]

1. The vast majority of shooters have never mail ordered a case of ammo in their lives.

2. Prior to El Paso, Walmart had 20% of the entire ammo market. One of every 5 rounds sold.... I love SG Ammo etc.. but they would be the first to admit they are pissant compared to Walmart ammo sales.

3. Ask our California brethern what happened to ammo prices when online sales were banned.

Right, so the schmucks who used to go buy 2 boxes of ammo at Walmart are going to pay more, forever.

For the typical M4c.net regular, that's not typical.

Also, as you pointed out, like cigarettes or lottery tickets or alcohol, it's us few heavy users who are most of the regular demand.

Online sales weren't totally banned in Calif...

Yeah, but it's enough of an expensive PITA that I've avoided doing it, and will continue to do so. (I travel out of state regularly and simply bring factory ammo back, as needed, but I don't need much.)

If I were going to do it, then I'd get my own ammo vendor license...

[TomMcC]

Right, so the schmucks who used to go buy 2 boxes of ammo at Walmart are going to pay more, forever.

For the typical M4c.net regular, that's not typical.

Also, as you pointed out, like cigarettes or lottery tickets or alcohol, it's us few heavy users who are most of the regular demand.





Yeah, but it's enough of an expensive PITA that I've avoided doing it, and will continue to do so. (I travel out of state regularly and simply bring factory ammo back, as needed, but I don't need much.)

If I were going to do it, then I'd get my own ammo vendor license...

Yeah, it was a hassle. It was still way cheaper than Turner's etc. Up until recently I was doing 2 3guns a month with some practice and casual shooting in between. Online .223 and reloading pistol ammo was where it was at for me. Loading .223 was just too labor intensive with my 60 hr. work week at the time. Now that I have the time...boom...no components. Such is life.

[Arik]

Several things. You are a highly a typical shooter- your personal ammo buying choices are largely meaningless in the grand scheme of things--1. The vast majority of shooters have never mail ordered a case of ammo in their lives.

Karl Rehn--KR Training, is the only person I know who has actually crunched the numbers-and he's qualified to do so, his estimate is that only about 5 000 shooters, the hard-core, support most of what we call the "training industry", idpa, ipsc etc....That small number of "orders ammo by the case" type shooters is dwarfed by the "one box of 9s and one box .30-30 crowd". Those folks, buy ammo at Walmart.

2. Prior to El Paso, Walmart had 20% of the entire ammo market. One of every 5 rounds sold.... I love SG Ammo etc.. but they would be the first to admit they are pissant compared to Walmart ammo sales.

3. Ask our California brethern what happened to ammo prices when online sales were banned. Joe's bait and guns went no lube.

So, I do believe that long term, fewer sales outlets and fewer (consolidated) producers, means higher prices. To think otherwise means ammo is somehow immune to market forces-and recent history would strongly suggest otherwise.

Cast majority of those who never mail ordered ammo are the same who buy one box of 9 and 3030. They're also the same people who buy maybe a few boxes a year

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[Red*Lion]

I am glad a good number of you are so optimistic. I think that this time and era is like nothing the USSA has seen before. I guess we shall see. You can for sure count on a complete ban on all firearm and ammo imports as China Joe can do it by fiat.