Are we taking bets on when Afghanistan falls?

[WillBrink]

Or did you think we were there for the Afghan people?






No, you wouldnt because they would actually win the war since they have no qualms about killing or enslaving every hostile muslim in Afghanistan. Then they would have all of the above for themselves which would make them even more of an economic powerhouse.

Neither did the Russians, and we'd make sure it was a total quagmire for them as we did the Russians, as they did to us in a Nam. I don't think the Chinese are even close to dumb enough to try it and the Russians will want no part of it either.

[SteyrAUG]

Falls? when has it ever risen.

This. The Soviet Union never restored it. The United States never restored it. We managed to engage in a turf war where we held our block and they had theirs. Both managed to install a government, but that government never really controlled anything beyond our own block and most remote tribal regions probably didn't even know there was a president.

I understand we had to go, our enemies attacked us from there and even if we fought something more than a "peacekeeping mission" we still probably wouldn't have accomplished much more than we did.

We should have invited Russia to "joint coalition" with us but I suspect Putin would have been too smart for that. I guess it's China's turn next to go over extend themselves.

[1_click_off]

Reports out the base is already being looted.

[Honu]

agree when were they able to fall ? they had to rise to fall !

so you could say when a snake trips !

[pag23]

To what end? Are they worried about invasion from that direction? What natural resources are there to take? I suspect they are as likley to that as we are to return to Nam at this point.

It is about control for them...they don't want the Islamic radicals to spread more than it has to and a show of strength...

[pag23]

I agree (though if I recall correctly it took us around 4-6 months to get Afghanistan)

Daily reports both official and unofficial indicate that Taliban takes new towns, villages, and bases every day. Most often without any resistance from Afghan forces. Border with Tajikistan (North) is almost under Taliban's control. Those who remember - Taliban didn't have a presence in Northern Afghanistan before the 2001. Eastern and Southern border is being contested actively.

Regular army forces simply join Taliban with all their weapons, communication equipment, supplies, and most importantly maps and mil. documents/plans - giving the Taliban full intelligence information and insight.
Recent report indicated 300 members of Afghan army joined Taliban. That is in addition to daily reports of dozens who simply lay down their weapons and join Taliban simply when they arrive.
Afghan special forces, considered elite and trained by U.S., are no exception. Dozens not just retreat, but surrender to Taliban almost on a daily basis.
Afghan Air force is doing precision strikes quite effectively against Taliban targets, but how beneficial would it be in terms of containment is a big question. I suspect that Taliban will target pilots and Air Force members for assassinations in attrition game.

I read a brief excerpt from memoirs of a Russian soldier (don't remember if he was an officer or not) who basically said they could never rely on local Afghans to do anything combat related. He said they would never fight the opposing side - it was either a prayer time, or they were complaining that they didn't get food on time, or it was getting dark (or too early in the morning), or they thought they need more armor support, or they needed to rest, or simply because somebody was shooting at them from the opposing hillside.

Great...the Taliban with special forces and at some point an Air Force...

Daisy Cutter the whole country...

[SteyrAUG]

How much do you know about islam in china? Or Afghanistan, for that matter?

I know the Chinese government is about as excited with their Uyghur population as the Russian are with their Chechnyan population. Given what China is willing to do in Hong Kong, there is probably nothing they wouldn't be able to do in Afghanistan, especially given the Chinese see "live organ donors" as a natural resource.

[BoringGuy45]

I just finished the book Surprise, Kill, Vanish which I highly recommend. The last quarter of the book is all about OEF, and the picture it paints of Afghanistan, according to the SOF and CIA operators the author interviewed, is that it's a hopeless hellhole. Now, all of my info about life in Afghanistan is secondhand, but I've consistently heard the same thing from everyone I know who served over there. Anyone here who served there and has a rosier, more positive view of the country, feel free to correction any misinformation I have.

Afghanistan in the book was referred to as "The Moral Twilight Zone." When we sided with the Northern Alliance, we didn't side with the "good guys" or even the "lesser of two evils". We sided with "the equal of two evils that happened to have a common enemy with us." It's the same as the Soviet Union was to us in WWII. That got me thinking: How can one think that we could stabilize a country where molesting children is considered literally encouraged, and having consensual sex with a woman for anything except procreation is considered disgusting? Also, apparently, the biggest problem SF and CIA SOG had in working with the Afghans is that they constantly gang raped each other! One guy in the book also said you can't buy an Afghan's loyalty because there's no loyalty to buy; they were undisciplined, unreliable, and would turn on you at the drop of a hat. The warlords we sided with were just as brutal and murderous as the Taliban. It was a lateral move when the Taliban got knocked out of power. When they come back, it will be another lateral move.

The U.S. government was playing the Cold War game after 9/11: Knock out the unfriendly government and build a U.S. friendly government. The problem was, to what end?? We didn't need a regime to buffer against the USSR anymore. They had no resources we needed. We didn't need a stable Afghanistan for anything! We shouldn't have tried to build the nation in the first place. After 9/11, our work with the Northern Allience should have only been to dismantle al Qaeda and get bin Laden, then get out of there and tell them to clean up the mess.

I know the Chinese government is about as excited with their Uyghur population as the Russian are with their Chechnyan population. Given what China is willing to do in Hong Kong, there is probably nothing they wouldn't be able to do in Afghanistan, especially given the Chinese see "live organ donors" as a natural resource.

True, but the Soviets were just as brutal and they left having accomplished nothing. The Chinese might be willing to do things we wouldn't do, but it would be a pointless endeavor to go in there. The Afghans can't be controlled, and they're so used to brutality that I don't think any kind of threats can scare them enough to cooperate.

[Business_Casual]

I tell you what, C-17s taking off regularly near here.

[ddbtoth]

I give it 6 months. Most people more focused on what sex is using what bathroom and such, while the US leaves Afghanistan after 20 years. Anyone who was there/boots on the ground have an opinion as to what will happen? I pinged a recently retired Col who spent a long time there, said 3-6 months before they fall, but he also said we'd reach the objectives 10 years ago and it was time to leave.

Already lost.