Guys! Remember, we are all going to discuss this like adults. As far as I know none of us are in the trenches so keep it cool.
We need to remember, at the start of this the Ukrainians were going to fall within days or weeks. They were going to take Kiev, were going to roll through Odesa and perhaps even roll into Moldova to join up with Transnistria. Now we are talking about a couple of individual towns and being amazing victories for the Russians. This is a war and a huge mess. Clearly the Russians started this war with a decapitation/regime change based on mistaken intelligence (I guess we aren't the only ones). Both sides have lost an unbelievable amount of material and men for a land corridor along the eastern side of the country. Now, the Russians have found their footing as they have selected more realistic goals. If things keep grinding along like this I would assume that the Russians will be able to sue for peace and consolidate some material gains in the Donbas . This will certainly be a victory for the Russians (at huge cost to their military and their economy, but Putin knew this at the outset, even if he wasn't expecting what he got). If the Ukrainians are able to integrate the new gear that they are getting into their military they might be able to claw back some of this territory. Because I am not Nostrodamas, I can't say for sure which of these two will happen. However, I will say, and you can come back and mock me later, there is no way the Russians take the Ukraine. It is clear they just don't have the capacity.
So here is what I predict (screen shot for later mockery!).
1. Ukraine will still be an independent country, permanently aligned with the EU and NATO. It will also be several orders of magnitude better armed and permanently sympathetic to the west.
2. Ukraine will probably have to give up land roughly starting at Kherson in the South, curving back to Donetest and up a little past Luhansk. This is a win for Russia. Whether it was worth all this is up to debate. I certainly don't think so, but I am not Vladimir Putin.
3. Sweden and Finland will be part of Nato, making Putin's stated goal of creating a buffer between Nato and the Russian empire a colossal failure. (Yes, I know Turkey is slowing the process down, but they will back down after they get bought off).
4. The Russians are headed for dark days when the price of oil collapses. He is already dependent on selling oil at cut rate prices to India and China. They will come back for further discounts when the market price of oil drops.
5. I am not sure how the Russians are going to deal with things like the collapse of their domestic airlines (as just one example). They will not be able to lease aircraft, get parts, etc. If this doesn't come to and end soon they won't be able to support their aircraft. The lessors have already written of the aircraft. It's a huge mess. I can't imagine anyone leasing them new aircraft one the next decade. Maybe they will think of something.
6. I don't care how much you think they will win, nobody can say Russian military equipment or tactics have made any kind of good showing. Russia has been dependent on the sales of this equipment to (mostly) poor countries. It's going to be a while before they are able to trick serious people into believing their equipment is anything other than 70s surplus.
EDITED TO ADD
7. I am interested to see if they will default on their debts tonight. The story from Russia is that they are fine because of the uptick in the price of oil (although they haven't been able to charge the full amount since purchasing from them is complicated by sanctions, etc). They are at the end of their 30 days frame period tonight, and I don't think anyone will accept their propped-up Rubles. Definitely something to watch.
Let those who are fond of blaming and finding fault, while they sit safely at home, ask, ‘Why did you not do thus and so?’I wish they were on this voyage; I well believe that another voyage of a different kind awaits them.”
Christopher Columbus
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