The New Whats Wrong with the Russian Army

[tn1911]

Remind us again how Ukraine is 'winning' here...

No one expected Ukraine to last days from the initial invasion. The mighty Russian army backed up by the mighty Russian Air Force was supposed to crush them in hours...

Yet here we are 4 months later and Russia has suffered huge losses of troops, generals, tanks, equipment, aircraft and even its prized flagship of the Black Sea...

All from a country of farmers.

Russia may never recover their losses just from not having the money or infrastructure to source parts and build replacement equipment. No one in the west will trust them for a very very long time. Their actions has strengthened NATO and rallied the EU to get serious about defense.

Despite the wishful thinking of a few pro pootin fanboys here Russia has been cutoff from the global financial system and will probably default soon driving them further into economic isolation.

Yeah I’d say that the Ukrainian farmers are making this special military operation very very costly for Russia.

Slava Ukraini!!!

[tn1911]

G-7 Commits to Supporting Ukraine’s Defense Indefinitely

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-indefinitely

“We will continue to provide financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support and stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes,” according to the text of a draft statement on support for Ukraine. “As we do so, we commit to demonstrate global responsibility and solidarity through working to address the international impacts of Russia’s aggression, especially on the most vulnerable.”

[tn1911]

Commando Network Coordinates Flow of Weapons in Ukraine, Officials Say

A secretive operation involving U.S. Special Operations forces hints at the scale of efforts to assist Ukraine’s still outgunned military.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/25/u...smid=url-share

[tn1911]

Several Russian generals removed by Kremlin over course of conflict - UK defence intelligence says

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-w...-says-12640134

The commander of Russia's airborne forces and of another major armed forces group are the latest to lose their positions due to Russian forces' lack of progress in Ukraine, the MoD's intelligence arm says in its daily report.

Do you keep removing generals if you think you are winning?

[tn1911]

Canadian special forces operating in Ukraine, New York Times reports

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada...9d2f28cfb/amp/

Canadian special forces are in Ukraine as part of a NATO network to provide weapons, training and gather intelligence about the Russians, the New York Times is reporting.

[vicious_cb]

Yes just keep news dumping the same sources that have been lying to you since 2016.

Guys! Remember, we are all going to discuss this like adults. As far as I know none of us are in the trenches so keep it cool.



We need to remember, at the start of this the Ukrainians were going to fall within days or weeks. They were going to take Kiev, were going to roll through Odesa and perhaps even roll into Moldova to join up with Transnistria. Now we are talking about a couple of individual towns and being amazing victories for the Russians. This is a war and a huge mess. Clearly the Russians started this war with a decapitation/regime change based on mistaken intelligence (I guess we aren't the only ones). Both sides have lost an unbelievable amount of material and men for a land corridor along the eastern side of the country. Now, the Russians have found their footing as they have selected more realistic goals. If things keep grinding along like this I would assume that the Russians will be able to sue for peace and consolidate some material gains in the Donbas . This will certainly be a victory for the Russians (at huge cost to their military and their economy, but Putin knew this at the outset, even if he wasn't expecting what he got). If the Ukrainians are able to integrate the new gear that they are getting into their military they might be able to claw back some of this territory. Because I am not Nostrodamas, I can't say for sure which of these two will happen. However, I will say, and you can come back and mock me later, there is no way the Russians take the Ukraine. It is clear they just don't have the capacity.


So here is what I predict (screen shot for later mockery!).

1. Ukraine will still be an independent country, permanently aligned with the EU and NATO. It will also be several orders of magnitude better armed and permanently sympathetic to the west.

2. Ukraine will probably have to give up land roughly starting at Kherson in the South, curving back to Donetest and up a little past Luhansk. This is a win for Russia. Whether it was worth all this is up to debate. I certainly don't think so, but I am not Vladimir Putin.

3. Sweden and Finland will be part of Nato, making Putin's stated goal of creating a buffer between Nato and the Russian empire a colossal failure. (Yes, I know Turkey is slowing the process down, but they will back down after they get bought off).

4. The Russians are headed for dark days when the price of oil collapses. He is already dependent on selling oil at cut rate prices to India and China. They will come back for further discounts when the market price of oil drops.

5. I am not sure how the Russians are going to deal with things like the collapse of their domestic airlines (as just one example). They will not be able to lease aircraft, get parts, etc. If this doesn't come to and end soon they won't be able to support their aircraft. The lessors have already written of the aircraft. It's a huge mess. I can't imagine anyone leasing them new aircraft one the next decade. Maybe they will think of something.

6. I don't care how much you think they will win, nobody can say Russian military equipment or tactics have made any kind of good showing. Russia has been dependent on the sales of this equipment to (mostly) poor countries. It's going to be a while before they are able to trick serious people into believing their equipment is anything other than 70s surplus.

EDITED TO ADD

7. I am interested to see if they will default on their debts tonight. The story from Russia is that they are fine because of the uptick in the price of oil (although they haven't been able to charge the full amount since purchasing from them is complicated by sanctions, etc). They are at the end of their 30 days frame period tonight, and I don't think anyone will accept their propped-up Rubles. Definitely something to watch.

The problem I have with people just dumping obvious propaganda is that it screws up everyone's decision making things more uncertain. Look what happened to the Russians outside of Kiev when they believed their own propaganda when they thought the Kiev government was just going to fold after a few Thunder Runs. Now its the opposite, the Ukrainians are believing their own propaganda trying to hold on every inch of territory in the east no matter how untenable it is. Now we are seeing 10k+ troops encircled Lysychansk, another 2k troops killed or captured when Zolote got encircled. This is no doubt a top down policy that is going to see massive numbers of highly experienced troops in the east lost. All the BS propaganda is just making this a more bloody affair for everyone involved.

Ive been watching the day by day exchanges of every town and territory for the last 2 months and making my own conclusions of whats happening on the battlefield. The fact people like tn1911 are doing everyone a disservice by posting clear lies and propaganda so the people that read this NYT schlock will make decisions based on the wrong information. Whats more a adult like discussion? Presenting reality as it is no matter how unsavory or spam posting more fantasy Ghost of Kiev Avengers bullshit articles?

[tn1911]

Yes just keep news dumping the same sources that have been lying to you since 2016.




The problem I have with people just dumping obvious propaganda is that it screws up everyone's decision making things more uncertain. Look what happened to the Russians outside of Kiev when they believed their own propaganda when they thought the Kiev government was just going to fold after a few Thunder Runs. Now its the opposite, the Ukrainians are believing their own propaganda trying to hold on every inch of territory in the east no matter how untenable it is. Now we are seeing 10k+ troops encircled Lysychansk, another 2k troops killed or captured when Zolote got encircled. This is no doubt a top down policy that is going to see massive numbers of highly experienced troops in the east lost. All the BS propaganda is just making this a more bloody affair for everyone involved.

But you’re ok with Russia invading Ukraine?

That part don’t bother you... what exactly is the driver behind all of y’all cheering for Putin? Because trump told you he’s the world leader he most admired?

Y’all have strayed so far from the reservation y’all support a murderous ex-KGB agent who’s the mafia leader of a nuclear armed gas station...

What’s next, y’all gonna toss your heart and soul behind Xi Jinping when he moves on Taiwan?

[Outlander Systems]

Not my circus, not my monkeys.

But you’re ok with Russia invading Ukraine?

What’s next, y’all gonna toss your heart and soul behind Xi Jinping when he moves on Taiwan?

[vicious_cb]

But you’re ok with Russia invading Ukraine?

That part don’t bother you... what exactly is the driver behind all of y’all cheering for Putin? Because trump told you he’s the world leader he most admired?

Y’all have strayed so far from the reservation y’all support a murderous ex-KGB agent who’s the mafia leader of a nuclear armed gas station...

What’s next, y’all gonna toss your heart and soul behind Xi Jinping when he moves on Taiwan?

Just because I don't support one corrupt oligarch state over another corrupt autocratic state means Im somehow pro-Putin? The question is why are you think things are so black and white? Maybe you are liberal or something. Or maybe you have son that works for Barisma just like every hardcore pro-Ukrainian politician out there. You arent the only one who can question motivations.

Not my circus, not my monkeys.

Bingo, I like how being anti this conflict and not picking one side over the other somehow makes you the bad guy. We sure GD hasnt turned into a liberal echo chamber?

[The Dumb Gun Collector]

Just because I don't support one corrupt oligarch state over another corrupt autocratic state means Im somehow pro-Putin. Are you a liberal or something? Maybe you have son that works for Barisma? You arent the only one who can question motivations

It does seem like it goes beyond being neutral between two groups. I am seeing what appears to be some real Putin cheerleading here. Which is fine, support who you want, it is just hard to understand.