When the Lies Come Home

**The Dumb Gun Collector** · 06-26-22, 09:11

Originally Posted by Wake27

To be fair, “close to the original borders” is also an escape hatch for you. What is close?

FWIW, I won’t bother to try and define what will be used to measure victory, but I do think Russia will be closer to that than Ukraine whenever this is over.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Here is my general response to the Russia wins folks.

We need to remember, at the start of this the Ukrainians were going to fall within days or weeks. They were going to take Kiev, were going to roll through Odessa and perhaps even roll into Moldova to join up with Transnistria. Now we are talking about a couple of individual towns being amazing victories for the Russians. This is a war and a huge mess. Clearly the Russians started this war with a decapitation/regime change based on mistaken intelligence (I guess we aren't the only ones). Both sides have lost an unbelievable amount of material and men for a land corridor along the eastern side of the country. Now, the Russians have found their footing as they have selected more realistic goals. If things keep grinding along like this I would assume that the Russians will be able to sue for peace and consolidate some material gains in the Donbas . This will certainly be a victory for the Russians (at huge cost to their military and their economy, but Putin knew this at the outset, even if he wasn't expecting what he got). If the Ukrainians are able to integrate the new gear that they are getting into their military they might be able to claw back some of this territory. Because I am not Nostrodamas, I can't say for sure which of these two will happen. However, I will say, and you can come back and mock me later, there is no way the Russians take the Ukraine. It is clear they just don't have the capacity.

So here is what I predict (screen shot for later mockery!).

1. Ukraine will still be an independent country, permanently aligned with the EU and NATO. It will also be several orders of magnitude better armed and permanently sympathetic to the west.

2. Ukraine will probably have to give up land roughly starting at Kherson in the South, curving back to Donetest and up a little past Luhansk. This is a win for Russia. Whether it was worth all this is up to debate. I certainly don't think so, but I am not Vladimir Putin.

3. Sweden and Finland will be part of Nato, making Putin's stated goal of creating a buffer between Nato and the Russian empire a colossal failure. (Yes, I know Turkey is slowing the process down, but they will back down after they get bought off).

4. The Russians are headed for dark days when the price of oil collapses. He is already dependent on selling oil at cut rate prices to India and China. They will come back for further discounts when the market price of oil drops.

5. I am not sure how the Russians are going to deal with things like the collapse of their domestic airlines (as just one example). They will not be able to lease aircraft, get parts, etc. If this doesn't come to and end soon they won't be able to support their aircraft. The lessors have already written of the aircraft. It's a huge mess. I can't imagine anyone leasing them new aircraft one the next decade. Maybe they will think of something.

6. I don't care how much you think they will win, nobody can say Russian military equipment or tactics have made any kind of good showing. Russia has been dependent on the sales of this equipment to (mostly) poor countries. It's going to be a while before they are able to trick serious people into believing their equipment is anything other than 70s surplus.

EDITED TO ADD

7. I am interested to see if they will default on their debts tonight. The story from Russia is that they are fine because of the uptick in the price of oil (although they haven't been able to charge the full amount since purchasing from them is complicated by sanctions, etc). They are at the end of their 30 days frame period tonight, and I don't think anyone will accept their propped-up Rubles. Definitely something to watch.

**Alpha-17** · 06-26-22, 09:19

Originally Posted by DG23

Why can that guy not make a comment without personal insults or juvenile namecalling?

(Not really a question - I already know the answer)

I tend to answer in like kind. Being called "Sport" is more than a bit insulting, and quite juvenile. And, I might add, no one has yet bothered to answer my original question, that has been asked numerous times now.

Originally Posted by Outlander Systems

Guys, there’s no way Ukraine won’t capitulate if the present course continues.

Whether the negotiated settlement is a ceding of the Donbas, or the total and complete destruction of the UAF is solely at the discretion of the Ukraine, but, this is going to end with Russia getting what it wants from the Ukraine.

Feel free to quote this post, screenshot it, whatever, and mock me now, mock me later. Call me a “CoMmIe,” a “PuTLeR LoVeR,” it will roll of my back like water off a raincoat; but, at the end of this, you’ll be calling me right.

Yeah, don't see that happening. If the historical trend continues, and the Ukrainians are simply too exhausted to continue, the war will move into the "frozen conflict" stage. That's been the norm since 1991 in the former USSR, and the trend in Ukraine since 2014. Big initial Russian success, war bogs down, both sides run out of steam.

Even now, we are seeing Russia not getting what they want. Propagandists, including the author of the article at the beginning of this thread, have been projecting Odessa would fall any day now for months. The Russians have objectively lost territory on that front, and have made no moves there. If they have as much success on that front as they have in the Donbas region, I'd expect Odesa to fall by 2024? Maybe?

If the Ukrainians don't lose heart, and they decide to drag the war on, I still argue that the Russian ability to project strength will wane. I doubt I will go so far as to say that Ukraine will be able to restore 100% of its territory on its own, but I wouldn't expect the current status quo to be ratified by treaty or concession either.

Originally Posted by utahjeepr

The difference is I fear you are correct about the outcome, whilst you all seem to look forward to it with masturbatory glee. Pootieboi is evil. Cheering for that evil bastard to slaughter innocent people is just disgusting.

Exactly. And they refuse to acknowledge that, let alone bother to explain it.

**DG23** · 06-26-22, 09:25

Originally Posted by Outlander Systems

I may be wrong, but it’s my belief that the entire purpose of this entire exercise was to fully fold the LPR/DPR into Russia’s batter.

That was their stated goal from the very beginning. (once they decided they had enough and were going in)

The guys here talking about how Russia wants the entire Ukraine are misleading at best.

**DG23** · 06-26-22, 09:33

Originally Posted by The Dumb Gun Collector

4. The Russians are headed for dark days when the price of oil collapses. He is already dependent on selling oil at cut rate prices to India and China. They will come back for further discounts when the market price of oil drops.

Too much fail in your post and too little time to get to it all now so will just focus on this one point...

Russia does not have debt like we do OR depend on others like we do.

There are not running their printing presses full tilt boogie like we MUST DO just to keep functioning (constantly digger a deeper and deeper debt hole that we already will never be able to pay back).

When you are not IN a deep debt hole already - You don't 'need' a lot of incoming revenue to dig your way out of it.

**The Dumb Gun Collector** · 06-26-22, 09:36

Originally Posted by DG23

Too much fail in your post and too little time to get to it all now so will just focus on this one point...

Russia does not have debt like we do OR depend on others like we do.

There are not running their printing presses full tilt boogie like we MUST DO just to keep functioning (constantly digger a deeper and deeper debt hole that we already will never be able to pay back).

When you are not IN a deep debt hole already - You don't 'need' a lot of incoming revenue to dig your way out of it.

That's why I put it in my predictions. If I am wrong you can't come point it out. My predictions won't retroactively change or be so vague as to be unfalsifiable.

It is interesting that we are looking to see if they default on their debt tonight despite not having debt.

**DG23** · 06-26-22, 09:39

Originally Posted by Alpha-17

I tend to answer in like kind. Being called "Sport" is more than a bit insulting, and quite juvenile. And, I might add, no one has yet bothered to answer my original question, that has been asked numerous times now.

I have been on the receiving end of your personal insults and childish namecalling enough times to know better.

You simply can't post for long without namecalling or personal insults regardless of how civil the other person is.

You proved it again above.

**The Dumb Gun Collector** · 06-26-22, 09:42

Both of you guys knock off the name calling (and a bunch of other folks). It's over. This is an interesting topic and it doesn't need ad-hominem or snark. I will be dropping the ban hammer if I have to come back and explain this much more.

**DG23** · 06-26-22, 09:46

Originally Posted by The Dumb Gun Collector

That's why I put it in my predictions. If I am wrong you can't come point it out. My predictions won't retroactively change or be so vague as to be unfalsifiable.

It is interesting that we are looking to see if they default on their debt tonight despite not having debt.

Did not say they had NO debt - Said they do not have debt like we do. Not anywhere NEAR like we do...

Having to pay in Rubles because we seized some of their Dollar reserves.

AND they will still be able to pay regardless of the fact we seized those reserves...

Doing our best to force them into a financial jamb every way we can dream up and so far we have failed miserably at it and caused ourselves and our allies more harm. Way to go Brandon!