Ukraine launched their offensive by committing mechanized units in company size on RIF/probing operations across broad sections of the line of contact. Last night those operations intensified and began to concentrate around 3 areas: Bakhmut in the north, Velyka Novosilka in the middle, and Orikhiv in the South. Of note are the first instances of large scale mechanized operations conducted at night by either side with constant fighting through the hours of darkness. This moring brought the first images, from Russian sources, of Leopard MBTs committed to battle.
I suspect the Ukrainians were attempting to force the Russians to commit their tactical reserves by pressing them across the front line. I suspect they were successful as there are reports from Russian social media of unprecedented levels of shelling and mlrs strikes well behind the front, especially around the Tokmak area. I suspect the Russians blew the NK dam to forstall any UA attempt to cross the Dnipro in order to re-deploy those troops on the west bank to Zap Oblast, as well as imposing retribution for the UA sponsored separatist activity in Belgorod. In short, UA drew Russian tactical reserves out and is subjecting them to long range fires as they move to the front.
I think an area to watch is the Orikhiv-Tokmak-Melitopol line. If UA is successful in driving to Melitopol they will sever the land connection of Crimea to Russia and the occupied Donbas. A push south from Velyka Novosilka would accomplish the same but the terrain is less favorable for the attacker and my guess is this is a diversionary/plan B effort. The push around Bakhmut is a diversionary effort.
Overnight Russian social media exploded with reports of massive UA attacks and massive UA losses. This likely indicates UA is achieving some success as the Russians seek to immediately drown out bad news with nonsense. They also seemed suprised that UA would press the attack at night. Info from the Ukrainian camp is trickling out this morning indicating some advances, especially on the Orikhiv axis as the puppet mayor of Tokmak has ordred civilians to evacuate.
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